2010 Top Free Agents

By Mike Misek

One of the most important moves in the summer of 2009 was the four-team deal that most notably landed Hedo Turkoglu in Toronto and Shawn Marion in Dallas. It required a remarkable number of contracts and cash to make the deal work, but was done so for an important reason. While Toronto had the cap room to do a straight signing of Turkoglu, and the deal would have never taken place had that ability not been there, it would have limited any other flexibility they would have had to turn over much of their roster last summer. It enabled the Mavericks the ability to assure themselves of signing Shawn Marion, despite not having cap room. Orlando got paid for dealing a player they were going to lose anyway, and as often has been the case in the past few seasons Memphis showed itself to be a proponent of NBA’s version of cap-and-trade.

This deal is important to note because this summer is going to see more deals that follow that framework.  The sheer volume of player movement that is going to assure that it happens. The Bulls, Clippers, Heat, Timberwolves, Nets, Knicks, Thunder, Kings, and Wizards will enter the summer with the ability to have significant cap space. All nine of those teams clearly fall into a buyer category. Armed with Erick Dampier’s non-guaranteed contract, Dallas figures to be a buyer. Houston will have numerous assets with which to bring this summer. They have a future 2012 first round pick from the Knicks, youth (Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, Jermaine Taylor, Aaron Brooks, and Kyle Lowry), and a very attractive Shane Battier expiring contract with which to deal. The Pacers, Hornets, Sixers, and Bobcats figure to enter the summer up against or over the luxury tax threshold, and therefore would be expected to either entertain opportunities to cut payroll or actively pursue possibilities. One can wonder if Magic ownership would intend to go into 2010-11 with a luxury tax bill that will grow to greater than $20 million if no cost cutting is done. Right there is half of the league, and there was no mention of the teams who will be looking to either retain their major free agents or get some compensation for them.

It would be overly simplistic to assume to list the upcoming free agents on one side of a ledger and draw arrows to a list of franchises on the other side. Too many franchises have guaranteed there would be major overhauls coming, and there are quite a few awful teams that desperately need to change their mix even if they do not have the financial flexibility to sign major free agents. Some teams will undoubtedly take a step backwards. If for no other reason than fear, only be a few teams willing to stands pat this summer. Even if the major free agents stay put, followers of the NBA can still expect a wild summer of player movement.

While teams have been collecting expiring contracts, it is worth noting that some of those players can still get a contract in the league. Jermaine O’Neal, Udonis Haslem, Quentin Richardson, Brad Miller, Tracy McGrady, Al Harrington, Mike Miller, Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, Rasual Butler, Travis Outlaw, and Steve Blake are going to have value on the free agent market. While it is easy to look at them as players who will undoubtedly be renounced in pursuit of maximum cap space, it is just as likely that the players’ agents as well as the current teams will want to use the rights on those players to facilitate multi-team swaps. Arn Tellem not only represents the interest of Joe Johnson, but Jermaine O’Neal, Tracy McGrady, and Mike Miller. Mark Bartelstein has both David Lee and Brad Miller. Most agents are not bound to one client, and have to balance many differing client interests. Ideally, Tellem would rather not see the Heat or Knicks renounce the rights to one of his clients in order to pursue another. It is possible, if not likely, that the Hawks would be interested in receiving O’Neal or McGrady as partial compensation for losing Johnson, but there might be another team who would like those players who have someone who can interest Atlanta. It opens the door to multi-team trades with complex salary match scenarios. When one considers that so many of the players who have been branded as an “expiring contract” will still be in the NBA next season, it might not seem far-fetched for fans to expect free agents to be only the first dominoes in a long and complex series that will play out throughout July and possibly into August.

Unrestricted Free Agents

1.    LeBron James- There really isn’t much point in going over the exploits of LeBron. He is the star of stars. I am not of the school that James needs to go to a bigger market in order to become a global icon. Anyone who followed the Redeem Team in the summer of 2008 knows that he already is one. At last check, his jersey is second to only Kobe Bryant in total sales. In Europe, his jersey was 4th, and he was 2nd in China. Nike no longer has a big market bonus in his contract, which speaks to the insignificance of the Cleveland market to their brand. Also, there is historic president. Since the current collective bargaining agreement was enacted in 1999, no player who has entered the league under the slotted rookie scale has ever changed teams when there was a max offer on the table from the team who drafted him. This obviously would not please excited New Yorkers, but there seems to be a lack of evidence that European footballers have turned away Manchester United’s overtures because the city of Manchester does not provide a big enough stage for the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo or Wayne Rooney. In the NFL, where players are often faceless entities, the most well-known players have spent much of their careers in Indianapolis, IN and Green Bay, WI. Throughout Michael Jordan’s career, rumors swirled that his love for New York and contentious relationship with Bulls GM Jerry Krause would lead him to the Knicks. It would appear that match never took place.

In all likelihood, James will sign another four year pact with an opt out after three years making him a free agent once again in the summer of 2013 at the age of 28. Even with the new collective bargaining looming, the leverage LeBron James has over ownership by signing shorter deals more than offsets any added security that comes with years. LeBron figures to have another five years as the league’s best small forward before assuming the thrown as the league’s best power forward during his thirties. He is going to make more money than any basketball player to come before him regardless as to what changes may come, so the only motive for leaving would be if he cannot win a title. With Cleveland speeding towards another 60-win season, I would say they offer the best chance.
Odds of leaving Cleveland: 65 percentDwyaneWade.jpg
2.    Dwyane Wade- Much like with James, history would indicate that Wade will remain in Miami. The only difference is that Pat Riley and Micky Arison have not surrounded Wade with a cast with whom he can compete for a title. The situation is not too different from Kobe Bryant in 2007. Wade is in his prime, and wants to have a chance to win another title. He is trying to use his leverage to get the Heat organization to bring in the players necessary to make it happen. Obviously, he has yet to go into a parking lot and diss Michael Beasley as Bryant did Andrew Bynum.

Part of this might have to do with Miami having the ability to transform its roster dramatically this summer. In addition to Beasley and Chalmers, the Heat will have their own first round pick, Toronto’s lottery protected first round pick, two or three second round picks, and their two second rounders from last year who have spent the year in Greece. They might not look like much, but on draft night and in July they are assets. Assuming Wade is signed for the maximum, they could still have in excess of approximately $27 million in cap if they use all their avenues to maximize space. The trade is a likely avenue for Miami to get Wade a second and maybe a third option. Certainly, one can expect the players who were bandied about before the February deadline to be brought up again. Monta Ellis, Andre Iguodala, Tayshaun Prince, Richard Hamilton, and Al Jefferson are on teams who are rebuilding and lack the salary cap room to greatly overhaul their rosters. The other benefit to going to the trade route would be that the financial commitments to Iguodala and Jefferson are not as long. Jefferson has three more years on his contract while Iguodala has three more years and an ETO.

Unlike James, however, I would not expect the 28-year old Wade sign for four years with an early out as a player at his size will have a more difficult time staying at the top in his thirties and might not get as big an offer at the age of 31. One would not expect Miami to have any issues locking in Wade for as long as allowed, so it is probably a moot point.
Odds of leaving Miami: 15 percent

3.    Chris Bosh- It is rare for public and media sentiment to be so violently opposed to the words that have come out of a person’s mouth. Never has it been said that Bosh is anything but pleased living and playing in Toronto. He has dismissed the idea that he would want to return to his home state of Texas saying that it would be too close for his own good. He has questioned why people have assumed that he would want to go to Miami. Even the notion that he should partner up with a superstar drew his ire, earning a reply that stars should want to team up with him not vice versa. Some other facts need to be dismissed. Toronto is not a smaller market. The Greater Toronto Area is over 5 million. It is a more important economic unit in the global scheme than Miami. Heck, the football stadium that houses the Dolphins and Miami Hurricanes is named after a Toronto-based corporation. While the tax rate in Ontario is higher than that in some states, it is not all that much different than those who live in California.

Chris Bosh’s situation is reminiscent of Kevin Garnett in Minnesota. Garnett never wanted to leave Minnesota. The city became his home, and he embraced the role of being the face of that franchise. Ownership and management never showed him anything but the upmost respect in terms of contracts negotiations. The Timberwolves never reached the top of the mountaintop, but he did build that franchise to the point that they did reach the 2004 Western Conference Finals, and Garnett stubbornly wanted to be the person who wanted to get them back to that point even as the team failed to make the playoffs in. He was the last person involved who wanted to see him leave Minnesota. Bosh is facing that same dilemma. Bosh is too good for Toronto to ever be truly awful (though they seem to be testing that in the past month), but the commitments to Andea Bargnani, Hedo Turkoglu, and Jose Calderon have not put the Raptors in a position where they can dramatically improve their roster from where they are now as a non-contending playoff team.

The case to stay more or less centers on the it would be an incredible showing of self-doubt and introspection for a superstar approaching, if not into, his prime to admit that he cannot lead a team to the title. I cannot recall another athlete with the money being equal leaving a current situation as a free agent under the guise of competing for a title. It could happen, but it has not happened before. If Bosh signs another four year contract with an opt out after three, he would be a free agent again at the age of 29. If by that point, Toronto is not in contention, Toronto ownership might take a page from Minnesota and tell him that he has to go for his own good. He would still have three or four prime years left to catch on with a contender. The case for to leave, however, is that only LeBron will have more teams willing to bend over backwards to sign him. If he wants to be a Laker, there is little doubt that management would make a deal happen. The same goes for New York, Miami, Chicago, or any of the other twenty plus teams who can either sign him outright or put together a sign-and-trade package. Of the three elite free agents on the market, I would say that he is the most likely to leave, but it still does not appear an overwhelming certainty as some would think.Chris Bosh
Odds of leaving Toronto: 85 percent.

4.    Joe Johnson- This is where there is a clear tier change. Whereas LeBron, Wade, and Bosh can dictate any and all terms for how much and how long, Joe Johnson turned down the offers that Atlanta presented to him last summer. It appears as though Atlanta would like to retain Johnson, but will not put forth the max deal that would assure them doing so. This, along with Joe Johnson’s public statements signifying that he will be open to offers just about anywhere, signify that he will be up for auction this summer with what will essentially be a race to the max. He is eligible for a 6-year $122 million deal if he stays in Atlanta or has a sign-and-trade worked out. It is difficult to make the argument he is worth that amount. I am sure there would be no shortage of teams willing to absorb a 3-year $52 million deal with some kind of mutual option for a fourth year, but guaranteeing the fifth and sixth years would be overly risky. A team with cap space can sign him outright to a maximum 5-year $92 million deal. While the latter more palatable than the former, the idea of Johnson being owed $40 million over the final two years of the deal when he is 32 and 33 years old is not overly pleasing. Paul Pierce would probably be an example of a superstar continuing to play at an elite level with the mileage and age, but he has also had Garnett, Allen, Perkins, and Rondo around to soften the work load. It will likely be an instance where the most desperate team wins out.
Odds of leaving Atlanta: 90 percent, leaving open the slight possibility that Atlanta pulls off an upset in the second round of the playoffs resulting in Hawks ownership negotiating with their emotions.

5.    Amaré Stoudemire- If one hasn’t noticed, Stoudemire has been a run since the end of January where he is once again averaging 27 points and 10 rebounds per game. It just so happens that Phoenix is also winning more than two-thirds of their games over that span. In other words, Amaré is back! And not a moment too soon, because he is eligible to make more than James, Wade, and Bosh. A new deal starts at just under $17.2 million for 2010-11. With the Suns, or in a sign-and-trade, Stoudemire can get a 6-year $134 million. In a straight signing with another team, he could fetch a 5-year $100 million deal. Even now that he has returned to his 27-10 form, both maxes seem unreasonable especially given that the third, fourth, and fifth years of his deal would signify his 12-14th years in the league. It is quite the risk investing in those years on a guy whose game relies so heavily on athleticism. One figures that Miami will be the favorites to land him. He has a home in South Florida, Wade will be lobbying for him, and they have the room to overpay if necessary.
Odds of leaving Phoenix: 70 percent.

6.    Carlos Boozer- Nothing in Carlos Boozer’s career would indicate that he would take anything less than the highest offer. From his decision to leave Cleveland to his decision to opt into his deal for this season, he has always made sure to get himself the best deal. There is nothing inherently wrong with what he did, but backing out of a verbal agreement with Gordon Gund and opting into a contract that left Utah in a very difficult financial position has earned him a reputation as a mercenary. While Utah was able to move enough pieces to keep them from hemorrhaging money this season, they cannot want to put themselves in that position again. They have to let Boozer leave, regardless as to how the rest of this season plays out. Paul Millsap is already locked up. Should they draft a small forward with the pick they will receive from New York, they can play Kirilenko more minutes at the power forward spot. They could also have the opportunity to bring in another power forward in the draft. Utah has more than $55 million committed to seven players not counting the sub-$1 million qualifying offers for each of Matthews, Fesenko, and Gaines or the $2-4 million (depending on how the lottery shakes out) that will go to their first round pick. If the tax threshold comes in at the projected $65 million, they would need to dump a salary and bid adieu to Wesley Matthews in order to have any chance of getting into the bidding for Boozer. The Jazz are the closest thing to a college program in the NBA in that players turn over regularly, but the system remains and that management finds new guys who will fit in with what they do. Losing Boozer is not going to be easy to swallow, but there is a long history of that franchise knowing how to plug in new parts without missing a beat.

As for where Boozer may go, he is the third power forward in the lineup. The market is likely to be mostly frozen until LeBron, Wade, and Bosh make up their minds. At that point, there is going to be a bum’s rush. It won’t just be the expected suitors of New York, New Jersey, Chicago, Washington, and Miami but also Detroit, Golden State, Dallas, Houston, Portland, and Phoenix. I could see any one of the teams with cap room pursuing him should Bosh not sign with them. Phoenix could try to work a multi-team sign-and-trade where they might lose Stoudemire but replace him with Boozer. Detroit has long been rumored to want Boozer, and could attempt to put together a deal where they land a much needed scoring threat up front.
Odd of leaving Utah: 90 percent.

7.    David Lee- He made the All-Star team this year, and is averaging 20 points and 11 rebounds per game. On the surface, it would appear that David Lee would be in line for a huge offer this summer. I have some doubts. He has never been on a team that has won more than 33 games, and on that team he was the fifth option. His role with the Knicks and statistics have grown, but the team’s results have stayed consistently bad. He is not particularly valuable defensively, and the ways in which he gets his points is rather limited. For me, it makes it difficult to determine what would be a good contract for both him and the team. I am not entirely sure that I would want to put forth an offer to Lee that would be significantly greater than one for Luis Scola. While I write that, I also acknowledge that I cannot see a scenario where Scola would get a sum close to what Lee will. A team that has sold the summer of 2010 as a turning point for a franchise can, at least, present David Lee with another player or two as a new name on some franchise’s marquee. They can say, maybe ‘we’ did not sign LeBron or Wade, but half of the roster turned over and one of the new players is a name the fans know and his numbers will be to their liking. At least before the season starts, they can say that better times will be ahead.
Odds of leaving New York: 45 percent.

8.    Al Harrington- Notice how far this has fallen off. It was a choice among Eric Dampier, Mike Miller, Ray Allen, Jermaine O’Neal, Raymond Felton, Channing Frye, and an injured Josh Howard. I suppose I could be sleeping on Travis Outlaw and Luke Ridnour, but that would make this even uglier. It is difficult to imagine that Al Harrington would have transitioned into the second coming of Antoine Walker. Now, if not for the fact Walker was unable or unwilling to keep himself in NBA shape, he would still be on an NBA roster. There is always a market for a stretch power forward even if he has an aversion to rebounding and defending. While Harrington is likely to take a sizable pay cut from the $10 million he will make this season, he should still find a market for his services. A reunion with Baron Davis in Los Angeles would make sense as he would contrast the type of big men they currently have with Kaman, Jordan, and Griffin. The Bulls, Wizards, and Nets could be options depending on how they fare with the bigger name free agents. The most likely option, however, would be either a return to New York or his involvement in a complex sign-and-trade. If Donnie Walsh is able to approach its rebuilding with sign-and-trades as opposed to renouncing most their current roster, he would have greater flexibility to fill out players 6-15 on his roster. This was the approach of Toronto last summer when they would have been able to sign Hedo Turkoglu without a sign-and-trade, but by working with Dallas, Memphis, and Orlando was able to retain their access to the mid-level exception with which they signed Jarrett Jack. I believe that with the craziness of the market that will come because of the abundance of free agents, teams with cap room, and teams without cap room looking to overhaul their roster that there will be more creative maneuverings than ever before with proven veterans from cap saving teams like Al Harrington, Jermaine O’Neal, and Brad Miller benefiting greatly.
Odds of leaving New York: 80 percent

RestrictedRudy Gay
1.    Rudy Gay- It really is not about whether Rudy Gay gets a massive offer from another team, but how elaborate the sign-and-trade deal will be. New Jersey would make sense as a partner as Devin Harris could be a player needing to be dealt should the Nets win the lottery. On face value, the Clippers would appear to be the most likely team to throw a max deal at Rudy Gay, and they have a future Minnesota first round pick that becomes unprotected in 2012 to offer as compensation. Minnesota might be in the mix, and they certainly have bodies and players whose rights they retain to make it happen. The problem, of course, is why someone like Rudy Gay would want to join that moribund franchise. As a Baltimore native, Washington might show interest in making Gay a part of their rebuilding effort, and a package involving Al Thornton would give Memphis a scoring forward who can come off the bench, assuming they elevate Sam Young or Ronnie Brewer to the starting role. Those would be somewhat simple deals. If Joe Johnson agrees in principle to go to New York, Atlanta could become a player for Rudy Gay and create a complex, wild sign-and-trade that will involve at least three teams.

Memphis could, theoretically, match any and all offers, Michael Heisley has actually said that they will, but it would strangle them going forward.  Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph will be unrestricted free agents after 2010-11, Mike Conley will be restricted should the team offer him a $6.48 million qualifying offer, and O.J. Mayo will be eligible for an extension. If Memphis matches a max or near max offer on Rudy Gay, then there will not be enough money to go around. Would they really gamble that the next collective bargaining agreement would alter the landscape enough so that they would be able to retain all their guys?
Odds of leaving Memphis: 85 percent.

2.    Luis Scola- The Rockets will only have to tender Scola a rather small $4.1 million qualifying offer this summer in order to keep him, and there does not seem to be a great deal of buzz surrounding his upcoming free agency. Since Houston dealt away Carl Landry, Luis Scola has averaged 19-10 per game. Those are David Lee numbers, and the Rockets occasionally manage to win a game or two. Scola is even willing to give effort defensively. Despite that, nobody suggests he is bound to see a significant offer. He is a solid power forward in for a half court team who is capable of being a third option scorer when needed, but also willing to be a fifth option scrapper. In all likelihood, Scola and the Rockets will work out a two or three year extension for mid-level money, but he could be a guy worth keeping an eye on should a team try to get a free agent power forward without committing too much money.
Odds of leaving Houston: 33 percent.

3.    Josh Childress- Childress never made any bones about him wanting to come back to the NBA. He left because Atlanta was unwilling to help him get a long term extension with another team. It was their prerogative, and they have done very well for themselves without Childress. Life in Athens making close to $14 million tax free while being the best player in Europe is also a nice way to go through life. The deal had no loser, but this would appear to be the summer where the two parties can come together to help one another. If Joe Johnson leaves in an outright signing with another team, the Hawks will need to either use Josh Childress in a sing-and-trade to get a player or renounce him as his cap hold is 300 percent of his final year pay of $3.63 million. I do not think Childress would be opposed to being renounced, but more doors can be opened with a sign-and-trade. It will be interesting to see if they can come together to help one another out.
Odds of leaving Olympiakos: 70 percent.

4.    Tyrus Thomas- The value of Tyrus is in the eye of the beholder. To watch the highlights, Thomas would appear to be a star in the making. Few NBA players have the physical capacity to perform the athletic acts Tyrus makes look routine, but that does not translate to NBA success. He was in and out of the doghouse during his four years in Chicago, and one month after dealing a lottery protected first round pick to acquire Thomas the Bobcats no longer have him as their first big off the bench now that Tyson Chandler has returned to the lineup. It is the flashes though that draw everyone in, not just fans. I would not be at all surprised if a team puts forth a rather large tender (a multi-year deal for around the qualifying offer) on the table for Thomas and dare the cash-strapped Bobcats to match. Charlotte figures to be over the projected luxury tax threshold with their roster should they allow Thomas to play for the qualifying offer making for a good opportunity should a young team wanting an athletic power forward decides to swoop in and grab him. To prevent this from happening, Charlotte is going to need to find a suitor willing to take one of their contracts and the contracts of Tyson Chandler, DeSagana Diop, Nazr Mohammed, and Boris Diaw are not particularly appealing.
Odds of leaving Charlotte: 60 percent.

5.    Ronnie Brewer- The decision by Memphis to give up a protected first round pick to acquire Brewer is not all that different from Charlotte dealing for Thomas. In both instances, teams who have struggled to find relevancy made a move to better position themselves for a stretch run to make the playoffs. In the case of Charlotte, it raises concerns about future finances. Memphis, however, is in a better position to retain Brewer. If my assumption that the Grizzlies will ultimately choose to not match offers on Rudy Guy and instead attempt to get some compensation in a sign-and-trade, then move their focus to extending Ronnie Brewer to an extension similar to, if not slightly greater than, the one Oklahoma City gave Thabo Sefolosha.
Odds of leaving Memphis: 33 percent.

6.    Wesley Matthews- Everybody’s favorite undrafted rookie turned starter will certainly be tendered the $932K qualifying offer from Utah, but could be in line for an even greater raise should the team attempt to lock him in for a multi-year extension. The team and Matthews might decide to figure out a deal prior to the start of free agency, but should he hit the market it is difficult to imagine that he would get a big enough offer from another team that would prevent the Jazz from matching. Certainly, I could not see him get offered a deal in excess of the contract Indiana gave to Dahntay Jones last summer, 4-years and $11 million.
Odds of leaving Utah: 10 percent.

7.    Kyle Lowry, 8. Jordan Farmar, 9. Will Bynum, 10. C.J. Watson- The unrestricted free agent class lacks star power at the point, and there appears to be a lack of depth in the upcoming draft, the restricted class could garner some attention. Lowry and Bynum fall in the small, quick, compactly built bulldog type point. While both have had some success when pressed into starting, neither really project to be a team’s long term starter. If Houston can bring over Sergio Llull from Spain, they might be open to moving Lowry. With Rodney Stuckey struggling in his first full year as a starting point guard, the Pistons might be less apt to see Bynum leave. C.J. Watson has found some success with the Golden State Globetrotters, but it is hard to determine what from that system translates to other styles of play. It would not be surprising if he received an offer from elsewhere, but there has to be enough doubt around the league to limit the role and money. Jordan Farmar would appear to be the most likely of the group to get an offer to be a team’s starter because he is a name from a winner. Teams have seen him play in the Finals, and history will show that the bright lights cast down on the superstars of the game catch just enough of supporting cast to make them rich as well. Eric Snow, Tyronn Lue, Steve Kerr, and B.J. Armstrong all retired comfortably thanks to multi-year contracts received because they played on a winning team. It is possible that he has flashed enough potential that a point-starved team might want to give him a look. If not, the Lakers would probably not be opposed to bring him back for the qualifying offer.