2011 NBA Finals Preview

By Eric Yearian

Thirty teams started this season with hopes (as irrational as those hopes were for some) of winning a championship. Now, two teams remain standing and they couldn’t be more different. Seems like just yesterday we were tuning into the P.R. nightmare that was “The Decision” and vilifying the South Beach trio for what appeared to be a premature title celebration before they even played a game together. The Mavericks, on the other hand, had been written off as chronic underachievers that choked in the postseason. They have quality players up and down the roster, but everybody was focused on the two time reigning champion L.A. Lakers and the up and coming Thunder because the Mavs have looked terrible in the playoffs ever since game 3 of the 2006 NBA Finals. The fact that Caron Butler also went down with a major injury didn’t inspire too much confidence in an aging group of players.  So now, we have two teams preparing to fight for the right to call themselves champions in the 2011 NBA Finals presented by American Airlines, well sort of, anyway.LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh gelled as the season went on, and the playoffs has been the time when they finally started getting some consistent help from role players Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller, both of whom battled injuries all year. On the other side, Dirk Nowitzki looked like the best player on the planet during these playoffs, as he put his team on his shoulders. The HEAT have gotten all of the attention, and I believe that may have motivated Dirk a little more, because it sure seemed like a certain 7-foot German guy wanted some revenge on the team that seemed to rob him of a title in 2006. The 2011 NBA Finals looks to be fantastic series of two teams that couldn’t be more different. Somebody is going to come away holding the Larry O’Brien trophy, but it’s hard to predict who.
Dwayne Wade
The HEAT will have home court advantage in the series, which could be important because every game they’ve lost in the playoffs has been on the road, while going a perfect 8-0 on their home court. Miami still isn’t a deep team, but they rely on their stars to win them the games, while getting production from a select few role players. That being said, it will be important for all three to show up every game if they’re going to come away with a ring. Wade struggled in the last couple of games against Chicago, but was bailed out by Chris Bosh abusing Carlos Boozer and LeBron’s phenomenal play on both ends of the court. It’s been a well-publicized stat that league MVP Derrick Rose shot 6% when being defended by James in the series. No, that was not a typo, Rose shot six-freaking-percent when James manned him up, and James will now probably be asked to spend time defending the 7-foot Nowitzki.
   
The Mavericks have looked more impressive than just about anyone in the playoffs and when they are hitting from the outside, they are nearly impossible to beat. Nowitzki is known as the best shooting big man of all-time, but they also have three of the top ten most prolific 3 point shooters in NBA history in Jason Kidd (3rd), Peja Stojakovic (4th), and Jason Terry (8th). Yes, the Mavs have age concerns, but that may work in their favor as they could come out more focused, knowing this could very well be their last chance to win that elusive title, while the HEAT know they will have other chances as they are just entering their prime. The Mavs actually match up pretty well with Miami as Kidd, who has lost a step or two, or three, shouldn’t have trouble staying in front of Mike Bibby, and Dirk matches up well with Bosh, and the Haywood/Chandler combo is better than anything Miami can send out at the center position. Obviously they can’t match the Wade/James combo, but a team could do worse than DeShawn Stevenson and Shawn Marion defending those two. Speaking of Stevenson, remember the old Cavs and Wizards playoff rivalry the past few years, headlined by the feud between Stevenson and James? That could be a storyline in this series as we could see some chippiness between the two teams (just don’t tell that to Wade, we all know he hates that word.

Key For The HEAT: Team defense. We all know that the HEAT’s big three will be able to make things happen on offense, but they’re going to have to focus on the defensive end and lock up a talented opponent. It will be essential to find a way to slow down Dirk. That’s obviously possible as the Thunder slowed him and baited him into a poor shooting percentage in a couple games, but Nowitzki found teammates and let them do most of the damage. The HEAT will have to find a way to avoid that same outcome. The key for them defensively will be rebounding though. Chandler has an opportunity to eat the HEAT alive on the boards, so guys like Joel Anthony and Haslem will have to give everything they’ve got on the boards. If the HEAT can force turnovers it could be big, as there isn’t a team in the association that can keep up with them in transition, especially not an aging Mavs team who will be more susceptible to tired legs down the stretch.
Dirk Nowitzki
Key For The Mavs: The Mavs, if they want to win, have to pick one member of the big three and say, “he’s not beating us” and do everything they can to shut him down. It doesn’t matter which one, because the HEAT will need all three of their guys playing at a high level to beat Dallas. Rick Carlisle has a team that is going to find ways to score, especially in the 4th quarter, so they’re going to have to step up on the other end of the court to make things difficult for a team that has even more firepower offensively. The three point shot will be important too, but I’m guessing if Dallas can win the rebounding battle and shut one of Miami’s stars down they’ll be in good shape.

X-Factors: The HEAT needs somebody, anybody to hit the boards and hit them hard. They have a number of guys that can do it, as Wade, James, Bosh, Anthony, and Mike Miller have all had very god rebounding games. However, I think the responsibility will fall to Haslem to do the dirty work inside against bigger opponents and if he succeeds the HEAT will come out on top. Haslem has played well in his return from injury and he will need a big series, even if he doesn’t put any big stats up he could be a big time impact player in the series.
   
If the Mavericks win the championship, we’ll be talking about how important Tyson Chandler was to the team. Chandler is the kind of player coaches dream of. He’s 7’1” and very athletic, making him a very difficult matchup for Miami. He’ll have a sizeable height advantage on anyone Miami throws at him other than Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who can’t come close to matching Chandler’s athleticism. Chandler played well in helping Dallas win both matchups this season and if he can do it for an entire series the Mavs should come out on top.

The Prediction: A lot was made of the HEAT starting the year 9-8, with that eighth loss coming at the hands of Dallas. Miami then won their next 12 games before another loss, also to the Mavericks. The Mavs know how to beat Miami, but haven’t had to play them since early in the season when they were still learning to play together. Beating them in a seven game series now will be an entirely different monster. LeBron James has taken his game to another level lately (which is pretty scary) and he’s coming off a series in which he frustrated the league MVP into an ugly 6% shooting. The Mavericks are a fantastic team that will no doubt present a myriad of matchup problems for them, but the HEAT just have the look of champions right now, especially after going on a ate 18-3 run against the league’s top defense to advance to the Finals. I expect every game to be ultra competitive but Miami will win it in 7 games. The series starts Tuesday at American Airlines Arena in Miami before shifting to American Airlines Center in Dallas Sunday night.

One last reminder, there are at most 7 games left this season and with the possibility of a lockout looming, it may be the last NBA basketball we get for a while. So whether you’re a HEAT fan, a Mavs fan, or just an NBA fan, enjoy it because it may be a while before we get more NBA basketball.
 
NBA Final Schedule:
Tuesday, May 31st, Mavericks at HEAT 9:00 Eastern
Thursday, June 2nd, Mavericks at HEAT 9:00 Eastern
Sunday, June 5th, HEAT at Mavericks 8:00 Eastern
Tuesday, June 7th, HEAT at Mavericks 9:00 Eastern
Thursday, June 9th, Mavericks at HEAT 9:00 Eastern (If Necessary)
Sunday, June 12th, HEAT at Mavericks 8:00 Eastern (If Necessary)
Tuesday, June 14th, Mavericks at HEAT 9:00 Eastern (If Necessary)