Blogger Knows Best: Inside the Orlando Magic
Team Name: Orlando Magic
Blog Name: ThirdQuarterCollapse.com
Blogger Name: Ben Q. Rock
1. Based on preseason expectations, how would you grade this season? Please list your team's top three accomplishments.
Prior to the season, most experts and fans projected the Magic to be a second-tier team: good enough to win 50+ games, not good enough to seriously contend for a title. Based on last season’s results, that projection was probably fair. But thanks to better team defense, the individual improvement of Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson, the steady production of Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, and an improved backup big-man rotation, Orlando has made the leap to join the league’s elite.
Before anyone scoffs at that notion, hear me out: Orlando is one of only six teams to rank in the top 10 in both defensive efficiency and offensive efficiency, and their +7.37 average point differential is fourth-best in the league, trailing only Cleveland, Boston, and the Lakers. It’s a steep drop-off to the next-closest team, Portland, which has a +4.11 differential. Clearly, Orlando has distanced itself from the rest of the field and belongs with those three other teams as the league’s elite. The Magic have exceeded everyone’s expectations, and for that I believe they deserve an A for their work this season.
2. How would you assess the competency of the team's current GM and scouting staff?
GM Otis Smith used to be a target for the media, what with his poor draft record and his decision to overpay Lewis. Those are valid criticisms, but let’s not ignore the good work he’s done recently. Courtney Lee might be the best non-first-overall Magic draft pick in history based on how quickly he integrated with the team – and remember Mike Miller won Rookie of the Year honors as the fifth ov
Dwight Howard has the Magic aiming for a championship.erall selection in 2000. Lee went from being his college’s leading scorer to the fifth-option on a contending team, and he’s made the transition beautifully. He’s shown no sign of hitting the “rookie wall,” averaging 10.8 points per game in both February and March. His drafting is a credit not only to the team’s talent evaluation skills, but also to its ability to assess players’ potential NBA-readiness.
Smith also had the confidence to ink Nelson to a lucrative contract extension prior to the 2007/08 season, a move for which he was roundly criticized. Now, Nelson’s an All-Star, and it looks like he’ll out-play the value of his contract, mitigating the over-paying of Lewis somewhat.
He’s also shown a willingness to shake things up mid-season, pulling the trigger on in-season trades in consecutive years. The acquisition of Maurice Evans and Brian Cook last year didn’t quite work out, but Smith was nonetheless able to parlay Cook into Rafer Alston at this year’s deadline, thus saving what looked like a lost season in the wake of Nelson’s season-ending shoulder injury.
3. Which young players (if any) can step to the forefront in the future?
Because the Magic’s four youngest players (Howard, Lee, Marcin Gortat, and J.J. Redick) are already solid rotation players, it’s really hard to discern which one should come to the forefront. Heck, Howard is their youngest player AND longest-tenured, having joined the team in 2004 – and he’s also their franchise player. Perhaps Gortat, who is one of the league’s most productive per-minute rebounders and shot-blockers, could see an expanded role. Then again, he’s backing up the league’s best center, who is himself two years younger. If anything, Redick could see more time as Lee’s backup, but he’s already averaging a career-best 17.5 minutes per game. And I’d hate to take minutes away from Lee.
4. Time to play fantasy GM: what move that was made the past few years would you undo and what move would you currently make for the team to assess immediate or long term needs?
Most moves Otis has made recently look pretty good, even the aforementioned Evans/Cook trade, since it did not appear as though Trevor Ariza, whom the Magic gave up in that deal, really had a role in Orlando’s offense due to his poor three-point shooting. And even the much-maligned drafting of Fran Vazquez doesn’t look so bad right now, considering Vazquez has, by most recent accounts, developed into a decent player during his stay in Europe. Additionally, by not getting Vazquez immediately, the Magic were not forced to sign anyone from that draft to a long-term extension, which they would have had to do were they to have selected someone who wound up playing in the NBA immediately. In the short-term, Orlando could have used an actual player, and the criticism Smith received for using a lottery pick on a player who wasn’t sure he wanted to play in the NBA was deserved. Long-term, though, the pick isn’t awful.
www.thirdquartercollapse.com has the latest on the Orlando Magic.
Looking toward the future, Orlando will need to make use of its expiring contracts before next season’s deadline. The contracts that year will be especially valuable due to their expiration in the hallowed summer of 2010, so the likes of Tony Battie or Alston could net a solid contributor. I’d like for the Magic to invest in a young, backup point guard or power forward whom they can develop over time, but one who is nonetheless ready to contribute. That’s what the Magic need, as their championship window is open, and they can’t afford to dole out too many minutes to works-in-progress. I wouldn’t rule-out the possibility of signing a grizzled veteran for next year’s playoff run, either.
5. Best case scenario: where would you realistically like to see your team at this time next year?
With their second consecutive division championship and a strong chance of earning the East’s second overall seed, it’s hard to complain about where the Magic are now. Next year at around this time, I hope they’re closer to where Cleveland is now: running away with the conference and perhaps home-court advantage all the way through the NBA Finals.
