Boston Celtics - Miami Heat Playoff Preview: The Potential of An Upset
(4) Boston Celtics vs. (5) Miami Heat
In what is being billed as the series with the most potential for an upset, the Celtics and Heat looks to be a competitive matchup featuring two teams going in opposite directions. The Celts have played .500 ball since the All-Star break, while the Heat have won 18 of their last 24.
The Celtics won all three of their regular season matchups. But, if you’re a believer in the theory that regular season don’t mean jack, then this series could be for you.
Let’s go over the matchups.
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo vs. Carlos Arroyo
Like this is even an argument. I’ll let my man Chris Webber handle the rest: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qoSXxWHV7Q
Advantage: Celtics
Shooting Guard: Ray Allen vs. Dwyane Wade
Wade’s fallen off a bit from last year, which we’re not holding against him. I mean, dude had the 13th best PER of all time last year. Don’t you watch movies? Sequels are hardly ever better than the first one.
But, actually, Wade’s follow-up from last year’s blockbuster hit was pretty great, too. Good enough for 47th best PER of all-time. Again, not as good as the first one, but still pretty darn impressive.
In a world that is obsessed with the question, what have you done for me lately, however, Wade’s slide from meteoric greatness has emptied out the bandwagon a little bit this year. There’s been a ton of other storylines to take away from Wade this year, but dedicated fans of the sport know that you’d be hard pressed to find anyone in the League other than LeBron who could such a meager supporting cast into a 47 win team. That’s why we can’t simply sit back and take this man’s greatness for granted. Nobody does more with less, sans LeBron.
The marvel around Wade has always been the “fall down seven, get up eight” mantra that exists within him, recklessly throwing his mortal 6-4 frame into the foul beasts that lurk beneath the basket. He’ll be up for this series, and is quite capable of winning the series by himself. The best players look forward towards playing the best, and if playing Boston’s new generation Big Three isn’t enough motivation, a second matchup with the King most definitely is.
Allen, who has had to endure fickleness from both the front office and the fans since 2009, is still somebody that needs to be attended to. Time has robbed him of almost all of his explosion off the dribble, and genetics don’t allow his slightly undersized 6-5 frame to simply shoot over the top of defenders chasing him around. However, as all great shooters are capable of, Ray-Ray can still go for 30 on the odd night when he’s on fire from the arc.
Advantage: Heat
Small Forward: Paul Pierce vs. Quentin Richardson
Now that we’ve extolled the abilities of Wade, let’s get back to reality: The rest of the Heat starters aren’t even close to the Celtics. Pierce has struggled with injuries and fatigue, both of which have robbed him of his signature midrange shot making ability. That’s not good for the Celtics, specifically when the game is close down the stretch, when the Celtics isolate Pierce in the middle of the floor and rely on him to get buckets.
Oddly, his 47.2% shooting percentage is the best of his career. #34 is the Green’s most reliable offensive option and Richardson, never a good individual defender, will have his hands full.
Advantage: Celtics
Power Forward: Kevin Garnett vs. Michael Beasley
All the cool kids are saying KG is totally washed up. Too old, too stiff, too slow. A has been.
I’ve never been the cool kid, which perhaps is why I don’t think the Big Ticket is just a ticket stub these days. Let’s not forget, people, that despite the Celtics’ well known struggles this season, they’re still a top five defensive team in the league. And that fact is due in large part to Garnett, whose length and IQ still make him one of the League’s best help defenders. He knows where to be at all times, and he knows where his teammates should be at all time, making him a highly valuable weapon in the war against paint penetration.
That’s not to say that he hasn’t physically diminished. Laterally, he has the agility and quickness of a water buffalo, which makes him a huge liability when he switches out onto smaller players. His one leggedness makes it difficult for him to get off the ground and grab rebounds.
But, he’s still money from 12-20 feet, and he is still skilled enough to face-up and put it on the ground against certain defenders. Bottom line, as with anything, that it’s not black and white with Garnett. He’s certainly not the same player he was in his prime, but he’s also not decrepit. He’ll be a main factor in the series, especially playing on the backline preventing D-Wade slashing at will to the hoop.
That’s more than I can say about Beasley, who is a genuine bonehead. This will be his second Playoffs, and his play will go a long way in determining the direction the Heat will go in the mind-consuming Summer of 2010. Another disappointing postseason by Beasley could cause Wade to finally call uncle and jet to the Windy City, or force Riley to jettison him altogether in an effort to aquiest Wade’s call for an upgraded roster. Granted it’ll be tough to keep our eyes off of Wade, but the most important player to watch may be Beasley.
Advantage: Celtics
Center: Kendrick Perkins vs. Jermaine O’Neal
O’Neal has enjoyed a mild resurgence, looking more spry this season than any in recent years. He does a solid job protecting the rim for a defensive minded Heat team, and also gives them dependable double digit scoring.
Perkins finished the regular season behind Dwight Howard in field goal percentage, but has struggled with consistency since the All-Star break. He isn’t hitting the offensive glass as well as we’re used to seeing the past two years, and he's not finishing at the rim with his usual set of dunks and lay-ups. Typically effective in isolation post-ups against certain match-ups, the Celtics have completely gone away from Perk on the block in recent months, indicating to me that something is up physically. He's had shoulder problems in the past and it's quite possible he's struggling with similar issues.
Even with diminishing offensive outputs, he’s still an imposing force down low and is bound to cause the softer O’Neal some frustration. J.O. has struggled against the physical Perkins in the past, choosing to shy away from contact instead of meeting the burly big man head on. If Perk can assert his will early on, O'Neal's effectiveness on both ends may suffer.
Advantage: Celtics
The Benches: Rasheed Wallace, Tony Allen, Glen Davis, Michael Finley Marquis Daniels and Nate Robinson vs. Udonis Haslem, Mario Chalmers, Dorrell Wright, Joel Anthony and Daqean Cook
The Heat finished the year 18-4 and did so with a crunch time lineup featuring both Haslem and Wright. So the Heat bench has some talent. Haslem is a dependable veteran that has survived as an undersized power forward by developing a reliable 15 footer and never giving an inch defensively. This season, he’s having a career year rebounding, which has been huge for an undersized Heat team that lacks true glass cleaners. He didn’t get nearly as much love for sixth man as he should have, but that’s Haslem, an unheralded blue-collar worker for all eternity.
After tearing his meniscus in March 2008, Wright missed most of the 08-09 season, but has bounced back nicely this year. Partially robbed of his athleticism, Wright no longer skies for rebounds and leaps to block shots, but he's still great in transition and is developing into a decent spot shooter. He hasn't panned out like the Heat hoped he would, but Spolestra trusts him in the fourth quarter, and his solid play this season could net him an extension with the team this summer.
Pleasantries aside, both of these benches stink, though. Wallace is the undisputed LVP of the League for the regular season. Finley is so old that he pulled a muscle picking up his luggage. Big Baby has found his energy again, but still has yet to rediscover his jumper from last year. Tony Allen's go to move is an off the thigh dribble. Daniels and Robinson have played themselves out of the rotation all together.
For Miami, Chalmers has played so poorly in his sophomore season that Arroyo, who wasn’t in the League last year, is starting over him. Anthony blocks shots, Cook hits threes, neither do each very well.
At the end of the day, this series won’t come down to benches, but rather the production of the main starters. Haslem is the only player worth anything on either sides, and he alone nudges the Heat along past the Celtics in this category.
Advantage: Heat
The Coaches: Doc Rivers vs. Erik Spolestra
Rivers’ predicament all year has been trying to balance his reputation as a players coach with a need to reprimand a group of underachieving, unfocused group of veterans. Entering the Playoffs, he’s found no solution. This isn’t about Doc, though. This is about Pierce-Allen-Garnett, who are the unquestioned leaders and most influential group within the organization. If they can flip the switch, Doc will be justified in his relaxed approach towards his players. If not, Rivers might step down. Either way, I don’t think this season’s debacle has been Rivers’ fault, a coach who has carved his niche as a players' coach and not as a shrewd sideline strategist.
In his second year, Spolestra has had to deal with injuries and juggle lineups in order to find his most effective group. Judging by the way they finished the year, he’s found the right mix. Having an all-world talent like Wade helps the cause immensely, but his youth and outward passion for the game strikes a chord with his players. He’s proved in a very short time that he’s a legitimate NBA head coach.
Rivers is trying to prop up a woozy Goliath, while Spolestra, slingshot in hand, is relishing the potential David role. We all know how the tale played out in the story books, but in real life, Rivers has a ring and Spolestra does not. Last year without Garnett, the Celtics played with the heart and determination of a champion, despite knowing they didn't have enough to repeat. For this team, the regular season isn't a good indicator of what's to come. For pride's sake, they'll up the intensity.
Advantage: Celtics
The Home Courts: TD Garden vs. American Airlines Arena
Maybe it’s a combination of both Boston fans being spoiled by championships and total disillusionment with this year’s on-court product, but for whatever reason, Boston does not have the luxury of a bonefied home court advantage anymore. Their home record clearly indicates that.
On the other hand, Miami fans are spoiled by their weather and generally don’t give a crap about the game. It’s not by as wide a margin as you’d think, but the TD Garden’s knack for coming alive in recent years edges it out.
Advantage: Celtics, slightly
This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring series that won’t live up to the consensus pre-Playoff expectations. These are two teams that are most effective when they’re grinding out every possession in the half-court. Expect a lot of free throws and a lot of whining to the refs on both ends. The Heat obviously have the best player in Wade, but the Celtics have a much better team overall. Miami’s hot finish was due to a soft schedule, and an Arroyo-Wade-Wright-Beasley-Haslem crunch time lineup doesn’t strike me as Playoff caliber.
They’ve taken their deserved lumps this year, but ultimately, the 2008 champs have way too much pride to go out in the first round.
Verdict: Celtics in 6
Game 1 - Sat April 17 Miami at Boston 8:00PM ESPN
Game 2 - Tue April 20 Miami at Boston 8:00PM TNT
Game 3 - Fri April 23 Boston at Miami 7:00PM ESPN
Game 4 - Sun April 25 Boston at Miami 1:00PM ABC
Game 5 * Tue April 27 Miami at Boston TBD TBD TBD
Game 6 * Thu April 29 Boston at Miami TBD TBD TBD
Game 7 * Sat May 1 Miami at Boston TBD TBD TNT
