Bulls -Pacers Playoff Preview

By Mike Misek:

Bulls Season Overview

The Bulls finished the regular season with the best record in the NBA at 62-20 despite having Joakim Noah miss thirty-four games and Carlos Boozer miss twenty-three. Chicago finished first in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing only 100.3 points per 100 possessions, second in opponent points allowed at 91.3, and first in both opponent’s field goal and three point field goal percentages. Derrick Rose is the prohibitive favorite to win the regular season MVP of the league finishing the season at 25 points, 7.7 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.0 steals per game.

One of the most interesting narratives to have come out over the past Derrick Rosemonth has been the counter arguments to Derrick Rose’s MVP candidacy. Several NBA observers have argued that the Bulls have been successful because of their defense and not because Rose is the best player in the league, essentially that because Rose is not the most “efficient” player that any number of other great players could do what he did. It is a rather humorous take given that this same storyline of an elite defensive team with a remarkable offensive talent carrying the scoring and creating burden also played out just two seasons ago in Cleveland. It was the Cavaliers who were among the tops in the league in most every defensive metric – third in defensive efficiency, first in opponent points allowed, and first in both opponent’s field goal and three point field goal percentages. That season, the praise was correctly placed on LeBron James. He elevated the play of a limited but hard working cast with his remarkable playmaking to such a great degree that Mike Brown won coach of the year. A similar set of circumstances came about in 2001 when Allen Iverson led a team filled with journeymen to the NBA Finals. The Sixers were fifth in defensive efficiency, fifth in opponent points allowed, and fifth in opponent’s field goal percentage, and sixth in opponent’s three point field goal percentage. Flanked by fellow season-long starters George Lynch, Tyrone Hill, and Eric Snow, Iverson carried Philadelphia to a 56-26 mark and a top-seed in the East. Iverson’s efficiency measures were not all that different from that of Rose this year. He finished the regular season averaging 31.1 points, 4.6 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.5 steals while shooting 42 percent from the field and 32 percent from behind the arc. 

Sometimes it is convenient to be selective in which facts and history people choose to make important. The measure of a player’s NBA immortality is not in the numbers he puts up, but his ability to elevate the play of others. Greats like Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, and Shaquille O’Neal made their teammates rich by making them look so good by their sides that another team overpaid for those services. The greatness of Magic Johnson’s career could be measured in titles, Finals appearances, rejuvenating Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s disinterested career, or the fact that when he retired in 1991 he essentially retired James Worthy and Byron Scott as well. The supposedly strong core pieces around Rose in Joakim Noah and Luol Deng were the same Joakim Noah and Luol Deng who got Scott Skiles removed and were a part of the 2008 spiral that resulted in the Bulls winning that year’s lottery. Joakim Noah requires no more defensive attention now than when he came into the league, but the presence of a guard who so incredibly takes on two and three defenders on a regular basis hides that flaw and accentuates his strengths. Luol Deng has taken a step forward in his career now that his 17-foot jumper can be taken a few steps back to behind the arc, but he is still heavily reliant on his point guard to set him up. Beyond the core, Keith Bogans started all 82 games and Kurt Thomas 37 games for the team with the best record in the NBA. For all the apologizing about the Heat having no help alongside LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, did Derrick Rose really have a superior cast? Is there a noticeable talent difference between Keith Bogans and James Jones? Is there is difference between Kurt Thomas and Zydrunas Ilgauskas? Carlos Boozer and Chris Bosh? Mike Miller and Kyle Korver? Joel Anthony and Omer Asik? LeBron James did an extraordinary job of getting the most out of his teammates in Cleveland, but he did not this year. Of all the great players in the league, Derrick Rose did the best job of getting the most out of his teammates this season. He elevated the play of his teammates in legendary fashion. His greatness has been on display all season long, and the bigger stage of the playoffs will remove any lingering doubts for those who have chosen or been unable to see him before.

Pacers Season Overview

The Pacers can be approached with the glass being half-full or half-empty. If Paul Georgesomeone chooses to look at the season as being half-empty, it needs to be noted that eighteen teams finished with a better overall record than Indiana. The Pacers were lucky geographically and also had the good fortune of not as injured as Milwaukee, as financially strapped as Charlotte, or as dysfunctional as Detroit. They do not do any one thing well as a team and allow the opponent to dictate how the pace at which the game will be played. The half-full take would be that Pacers won ten out of their final seventeen, and that their young core has begun to show signs of that the team’s five season run of being between 32 and 37 wins could be coming to an end next year. Around mid-March, Indiana finally settled on a starting lineup of Darren Collison, Paul George, Danny Granger, Tyler Hansbrough, and Roy Hibbert. All of those five are 27 years old or younger, and Hibbert is the only one who is not signed through at least 2013-14 – Hibbert’s rookie deal is only through 2012-13. Even the young players off the bench have shown competence. Josh McRoberts had his best year of his career and is still only 24. AJ Price stepped into the backup point guard role and played serviceably at 23. Even Brandon Rush, who was as streaky as ever, was not without value because of his ability to get hot and carry the offense for a game or two. Also, Sacramento/Anaheim is the only team to have less money on their 2011-12 payroll than the Pacers so they are going to have a great deal of payroll flexibility going forward.

The debate as to whether the Pacers should be pleased or disappointed with their season also comes into play as to whether interim Head Coach Frank Vogel will be retained. Even after making the playoffs, no organizational decision had been made about his future. Jim O’Brien was fired after a 17-27 start to the season, and Vogel took that same roster to a 20-18 finish. Hovering around .500 is not an end goal for NBA teams, but does Vogel getting more out of that roster speak more of him, Jim O’Brien, or the natural growth and development of a young team? It is hard to tell.

In 2008, a 37-45 Atlanta Hawks team battled the top-seeded Celtics to seven games and used that series as a turning point in its rebuilding process. They have been the 4, 3, and 5 seeds for the past three years. The 2007 Magic were an eight-seed coming off a 40-42 campaign. The next year, they were 52-30 and have been over 50 wins each year since. They show that sneaking into the playoffs with a losing record does not necessarily mean that they are bound for a future of mediocrity. On the other hand, the 2006 Bucks got into the playoffs at 40-42. Like the Pacers, they were a young team that showed some promise. They were a quick out to the Pistons and regressed each of the following two years. The path Indiana is going to take is not certain, but playing the Bulls tough and coming away with a game or two could be a sign that this team is not just the best of a bad bottom to the East.

Key to the Series

The question is not who will win this series, but how long it will last. The Pacers do not match up well at all with the Bulls, and this should not be at all surprising given the twenty-five win differential between the teams. Roy Hibbert has been horrible in his career against the Bulls. He is averaging only 7.4 points and 5.8 rebounds while shooting an abhorrent 31.4 percent from the field in 12 career games. Danny Granger has struggled with Luol Deng’s length as a defender in recent years. Darren Collison and A.J. Price are going to have their hands full trying to contain Derrick Rose. If the Pacers are to steal a game in this series, it will be because Tyler Hansbrough catches Carlos Boozer on a sluggish day where not only is Hansbrough able to be a bundle of energy, but also harnesses that energy in an efficient way that results in extra possessions and points. While the scenario was different during the regular season because Indiana caught the Bulls on the second day of back-to-back road games, it was Hansbrough whose 29 points and 12 rebounds carried the day in Indiana’s only victory over Chicago this year. The problem is that with no back-to-backs in the playoffs, the expectation cannot be that the Pacers will be able to sneak up on the Bulls.

Prediction: Bulls in four.

Schedule:
Game 1 - Sat April 16, Indiana at Chicago, 1:00 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN3D
Game 2 - Mon April 18, Indiana at Chicago, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Game 3 - Thu April 21, Chicago at Indiana, 7:00 p.m. ET, NBA TV
Game 4 - Sat April 23, Chicago at Indiana, 2:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Game 5 * Tue April 26, Indiana at Chicago, TBD, TBD
Game 6 * Thu April 28, Chicago at Indiana, TBD, TBD
Game 7 * Sat April 30, Indiana at Chicago, TBD, TNT