Cavs-Celtics 2nd Round Preview

By Eric Yearian

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #4 Boston Celtics

The big story lines coming into this series are obviously going to be the LeBron James elbow saga and the Celtics age. The fact is, both of these story lines are probably both being overblown. LeBron’s elbow is hurt, as evidenced by his left-handed free throw late in the final game of the Cavs’ first round series against the Bulls. However, the team’s medical staff hasn’t found any structural damage that would prevent him from playing through the injury. It’s really surprising that everyone seems so ready to write off the Celtics due to their age. In reality, the Celtics aren’t nearly as old as everyone seems to think they are.

CelticsPop quiz: Which team in this series is older, the Cavs or the Celtics? Answer? The Cavaliers are actually older than the “aging” Celtics. Cleveland employs the oldest player in the league, 38 year old Shaquille O’Neal. The average age of the Cavaliers’ starting lineup is 31.4 years old. Compare that to the Celtics’ average age of 29.6 years. The Celtics have young players in Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins that are difference makers despite being very young. You could argue Shaq skews the average, but even without him in the equation, the Cavs are still older. The main argument made by Celtic detractors is that the big three are all old (Paul Pierce is 32, Ray Allen is 34, and Kevin Garnett will turn 34 next month). However, Rondo was, for large stretches this season, the second best player on the team behind Pierce, and he’s only 24.

So, if those storylines are more myth than fact, what’s truly important for each team going into this series? Well it takes a little more digging to see what the true keys to this series are for two of the powerhouse teams in the Eastern Conference.

Key for the Cavaliers: LeBron James cannot be a one man show, but he has to show up and play well while getting others involved. Looking at his recent history against the Celtics is very interesting. Since the 2006-2007 season, LeBron has met the Celtics 13 times in the regular season and 7 more times in the playoffs. In the regular season LeBron and the Cavs came away with losses on LeBron’s two highest scoring games (42, 38), and his three lowest scoring games (21, 22, 26). The eight games between those games James led his team to a victory while averaging over 34 points, 7.9 assists, and 6.6 rebounds per contest. Compare that to 25.8 points, 6.6 assists, and 6.4 rebounds in losses.  The postseason is similar in that LeBron’s two highest scoring games (45, 35) and two lowest (12, 21) resulted in losses. James was able to lead the team to victory when he balanced scoring and passing in the other four games.

Key for the Celtics: Defense. The last time these two teams met in the post season, they went 7 games and it culminated in a classic in Boston. Despite having home court advantage, the Celtics needed a heroic effort by Paul Pierce to down the Cavs in a closely contested game. This year, Cleveland has more weapons than ever and has home court advantage (which is significant because Boston went 0-3 in Cleveland during the series in 2008). On top of this, Kevin Garnett isn’t the same player he used to be prior to his knee injury. It will take a complete team effort on the defensive end for the Celtics to advance to the conference finals. Doc Rivers’ lead assistant, Tom Thibodeau, is widely regarded as one of the better defensive minds in the league, and if anyone is up to the task of drawing up a scheme to contain the King, it’s him.

X-Factors: Each team has a pretty good idea of what they’re going to get from their star players, but they’re going to need to have somebody step up and help their team when it matters most. For the Cavaliers, that would be Delonte West. West is a former Celtic and one of the Cavalier role players that can create his own shot. In game three of the 2008 playoff meeting, West went off for 21 points, 7 assists, and 5 rebounds. He won’t be expected to put up those kinds of numbers but if he can come in to the game and produce, it could allow the Cavaliers to get James some rest and limit his minutes. For the Celtics, Rasheed Wallace will need to step up. Wallace, when he keeps his emotions in check, is one of the game’s most intelligent players on both ends of the court. He likes to launch threes a little more than his team would like, but that might actually benefit Boston in the series as he will make it difficult for Shaquille O’Neal or Zydrunas Ilgauskas to match up defensively. When he does go down low to operate in the post, he has a silky-smooth turn around fader that is virtually impossible to defend. He is a matchup nightmare for the Cavaliers and if Doc Rivers can get him to show up and be a presence in this series there is a good chance the Celtics move on to the conference finals.

The Prediction: Cavaliers in 7. They may be older, and their best player may be dealing with an injury, but in the end, LeBron James is just too good and has too much help surrounding him in this series. He’s ready to claim a second straight MVP award and he seems to want the championship hardware to go along with it more than ever. When the best player in the series is also the most driven, it’s difficult to pick against him, especially when he has a supporting cast including Shaq, Antawn Jamison, and Mo Williams. The Celtics will keep it close and even push the series back to Cleveland for a deciding game 7, but the Cavs will pull it out at home, where they have a league best record over the past two seasons.

Game 1 is Saturday in Cleveland.

Game 1: May 1st @ Cleveland, TBA
Game 2:  May 3rd @ Cleveland, TBA
Game 3: May 7th @ Boston, TBA
Game 4: May 9th @ Boston, 4:30 Eastern/3:30 Central
Game 5: May 11th @ Cleveland, TBA – If Necessary
Game 6: May 13th @ Boston, TBA – If Necessary
Game 7: May 16 @ Cleveland, 4:30 Eastern/3:30 Central –If Necessary