The Cheat Sheet: Your Guide to Fantasy Hoops

By Eric Yearian

With fantasy hoops becoming more and more popular, there are more and more people looking for any advantage they can get to finish on top of their league. Consider this column your advantage. Every other Tuesday throughout the season, I’ll give you my rundown on some of the key players for the upcoming couple of weeks for fantasy. I’ll point out some trends to watch, and discuss the ramifications in fantasy of what’s happening on the court and in NBA front offices. This column will deal primarily with head to head leagues, but I’ll touch on some rotisserie style tips so that demographic isn’t left out and can benefit from the column as well.  So now that you know what to expect in this space throughout the season, let’s get started.

Recent News/Revelations: So much has happened over this offseason that it can make your head spin. The teaming up of Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh was probably the biggest news of the off-season, and will certainly have an impact on fantasy, but there are other things going on that can potentially have a bigger impact on your fantasy fate this season. A major point of contention for fantasy owners when it came to the Golden State Warriors was that Don Nelson may play a guy 40 minutes a game one week and super glue him to the bench the next week, making any Warrior not named Monta Ellis or player: Stephen Curry] a risky play. With Keith Smart taking over for Nelson, that should no longer be the case, meaning you no longer have to be wary of drafting a Warrior. Al Jefferson being traded from the Timberwolves to the Jazz will also impact the fantasy landscape, as the Jazz now have a post presence that has a good mix of size and a back-to-the-basket game to replace the departed Carlos Boozer, who we’ll discuss in a bit.

Sell High: Who should you look to trade while their value is high? This section will give you an idea of who’s value is as high as it will get, meaning you may want to look to capitalize on this high stock.
Chris Bosh: Bosh was a nightly double-double threat in Toronto, and fantasy owners enjoyed having him on their rosters, as he paid major dividends for them. In a standard scoring league, Bosh could be counted on for 35-40 fantasy points per game. Now that he is in Miami, those numbers are likely to decrease. While playing alongside Wade and James is sure to get him some easy looks, he will lose touches in Miami’s offense and lose rebounds to James as well. While it would be unwise to just give him away, if you can get good value for him based on his name recognition, it’s something you should be willing to look into.

Steve Nash: Nash is a two time MVP, and an assists machine, so why would you want to trade him? Well, with Amar'e Stoudemire heading to New York, Nash lost his pick and roll partner. To replace Amar'e, the Suns brought in Hedo Turkoglu from the Raptors. Turkoglu, while very talented, is a perimeter oriented forward coming off a rough year. Turkoglu needs to have the ball in his hands, and coach Alvin Gentry has said this will allow Nash to spend a little more time playing off the ball and looking for his shot. Despite the fact Nash is a talented shooter, any move that takes the ball out of his hands and reduces his opportunities to facilitate will hurt his value.

Buy Low:Joakim Noah looks forward to the return of Carlos Boozer
Carlos Boozer: Boozer recently broke his hand and is rehabbing. After relocating to Chicago this offseason, Boozer was an attractive option for fantasy owners. Now, he won’t be making his Bulls debut until about a month into the season. While it would mean being without an important part of your team for the first few weeks of the season, I would advise you to see if Boozer can be had in trade right now, as you may be able to get him at a reduced rate due to the injury. Is it a risk? Yes. However, if you can get him on the cheap, and survive the few weeks without him, he will pay major dividends for you later in the season.

Lamar Odom: Andrew Bynum will be out to begin the season, meaning Odom will likely start at PF for the Lakers. Odom is viewed as a talented, versatile forward who doesn’t put up dominant numbers, which doesn’t typically translate to fantasy success. However, his numbers when he gets major minutes (which he will while Bynum recovers) are fantastic. When he plays in place of Bynum he brings down a lot of rebounds, while typically scoring in double figures, making him an attractive fantasy option. Because of his inconsistent play when Bynum plays, you may be able to steal him away from the owner that drafted him. You’ll likely need a contingency plan at forward once Bynum returns to action though, so be ready.

Players you should avoid: Who should you avoid at all costs?
Any Celtic Center: The Boston Celtics decided this offseason that they needed to upgrade their post positions since Kendrick Perkins will miss a large chunk of the season due to injury. With that a priority, they targeted both O’Neal’s on the market, Shaquille and Jermaine. While they both are quality players, they are both injury prone, need the ball in their hands to contribute and, most importantly, will be sharing minutes with each other, as well as Kevin Garnett and Glen Davis, meaning limited opportunities to produce statistics. If you’re thinking they’ll make up for it by getting rebounds and put-backs, think again, the Celtics were 4th in the league last season in field goal percentage.

Players you should be looking to pick up: Who is most likely available in your league that you should consider acquiring?Toney Douglas
Toney Douglas: Douglas slipped in a lot of drafts due to the presence of Raymond Felton in New York and the fact that Mike D’Antoni didn’t fully trust the young guard. However, it was revealed that there is a very real chance that he could start alongside Felton and still get minutes backing him up. The key for any player to contribute in fantasy is opportunity, and Douglas should have plenty of opportunities this season.

DeJuan Blair: Blair had a good rookie season after being a second round pick last year, as he went on to prove that despite being undersized, he could rebound with anybody in the league, and score when called upon. He’s unlikely to put up great stats on an everyday basis, but with him expected to start thanks to Tiago Splitter’s (another name to keep on your radar) injury, he could be a good stop gap option to start the season and he had a lot of upside for fantasy players.

Full Disclosure for this year's first column: This section will typically be used to show how my predictions in the prior column panned out, so that there is some accountability on my part. With this being the first column, obviously that’s not possible, so we’ll do a little different full disclosure. While reading this you may be wondering, who is this guy and why should I listen to him? Over the past two seasons, I have taken part in 6 fantasy basketball leagues, winning 5 of them, and posting two perfect seasons (24-0). I’ve done it with all different types of lineups, I’ve won picking 1st overall, 12th overall, and various spots in between. I’ve had some success in fantasy by looking at who would have the opportunity to succeed based on playing time, coach philosophy, fellow players, field goal percentages and playing time. Oh, and it probably doesn’t hurt that I am a self-proclaimed “stats geek” too. By looking at opportunity instead of just going for the big names because they are, well, big names, you can have plenty of success in fantasy hoops and I’ll be here to help guide you through the season as best I can. If you have any specific questions you’d like addressed in future columns leave them in the comments section and I’ll try to select one or two to answer each time. With that being said, great luck this season and look for this column again two weeks from now!