Fantasy Basketball Sleepers

Basketball is unlike many of the other sports that fall under the fantasy umbrella. In baseball, a first round pick’s production is entirely unpredictable. The same can be said about football. But not basketball. Every year, the top players will produce if they are healthy. In fact, that is one of my major draft strategies. Opting for players with no track record of injury in the early rounds and subsequently, taking risks later in the draft. Why?  The guys who are drafted later are the ones who win the leagues. Look at last year. Brandon Jennings. Stephen Curry. Tyreke Evans. All of these rookies were drafted after the century mark, yet all ended up as top fifty players. It's not the LeBron James and Kobe Bryant's of the game; it's the Corey Maggettes and Carl Landry's that go from late draft picks to consistent performers. My goal is to educate, enlighten and inform. Without further ado, I present to you the best of the late round crop.

Tyrus Thomas (Starting PF for the Bobcats)
The Bobcats had an interesting off-season, trading away Tyson Chandler for the non-guaranteed contract of Erick Dampier (which they were quick to waive). By eliminating a big man from their already undersized and understaffed front court, there is tremendous opportunity to be had in Charlotte. Thomas could just be the man to capitalize. The fourth overall pick in the 2006 draft, Thomas has thus far been a letdown. Despite being 6'9 with a puma like vertical, Thomas has never scored more than 11 points per game or grabbed more than 6.5 rebounds in any of his five NBA seasons. In fact, Thomas has had trouble just staying on the court as he has averaged only 20 minutes per game on his career. The up-shot? Because he has limited PT, we have no idea how valuable Thomas could be if his time on the court was more consistent.

If one was to examine Thomas' numbers based on 36 minutes of playing time, (and trust me, with his main competition coming from Nazr Mohammad and Eduardo Najera, he will get big minutes), they might notice compelling production.  In 25 games with Charlotte following his trade from Chicago, Thomas averaged 16.7 points, 10.1 rebounds 1.5 steals and 2.5 blocks per 36. These numbers represent a best-case scenario, but it does show TT’s true potential. Thomas is a springy athlete and sensational defender. Both are things that should be rewarded by head coach and defensive guru Larry Brown. One possible kink? The 'Cats like using Gerald Wallace as a power forward which would drive Thomas to the bench and possibly force him to back-up DeSagana Diop and Nazr Mohammed where he would be vastly undersized. Charlotte would do themselves a favor by starting a line-up of D.J. Augustin, Stephen Jackson, Gerald Wallace, Tyrus Thomas and Nazr. And if they do so? Thomas will be in line for a career year. A line of 14, 8 with a steal and two blocks seems attainable and after years of failed expectations, he could be acquired late in drafts.

Raymond Felton (Starting point guard for the Knicks)
My unabashed man-crush on Anthony Randolph has been documented for years (mostly through a court ordered restraining order), but today my adoration goes to one of his new Knick teammates. Last year, a 25 year old Raymond Felton averaged 12.1 points and 5.6 assists on the third lowest scoring team in the NBA. Just imagine his productivity in a high-scoring, up-tempo offense like the one Mike D'Antoni runs. This is the offense that allowed Chris Duhon to turn into a valuable fantasy asset with an 11, 3 and 7 line in 2008-2009. Felton may lack a great jump shot, but he is a terrific ball handler and pure point guard who should rack up assists in an offense that outscored his team by an average of seven points per game. Felton has improved at finishing around the hoop and has always been a superb defensive player. Now that he has escaped the clutches of Larry Brown, he may be allowed to take more gambles. Felton has always been a respectable fantasy asset, but his value will skyrocket this year. Guaranteed. 14, 4 and 8 should be in line for Felton with potential for nearly double digit assists.

Robin Lopez (Starting C for the Suns)Robin Lopez
We may be witnessing the end of an era in Phoenix. With Amare Stoudemire splitting town and taking his sleek and stylish glasses with him, the Suns are now in a dilly of a pickle. Despite off-season moves that brought Hakim Warrick, Hedo Turkoglu and Josh Childress to the desert, the Suns’ roster mirrors a donut. Soft and doughy with a big hole in the middle. Channing Frye's breakthrough season was great, but his inability to rebound makes him a weapon off the bench, not a starting center. Real centers have to do the dirty work. Block shots. Rebound. Protect the paint. There's only one guy for that job, and it's the “other” Lopez brother, Robin. Last year in fewer than 20 minutes per game, he averaged a solid 8.4 points, 4.9 rebounds and a block per game. As a starter, he averaged 11.3, 6.2 and 1.1 blocks. Per 36 minutes? How about 15.7, 9.1 and 1.9? Every sign out of Robin is encouraging. His age? Only 22. His production? He's improved every year dating back to his college years. His off-season development? A summer with Team USA should help his cause. This seven footer may lack a tradition post game. In fact, he may have one of the rawest offensive games in the NBA. But that doesn't devalue this floppy haired big man. In an offense centered around fast breaks, three-pointers and easy lay-ups off Steve Nash assists, Robin Lopez is an ideal big man. Offensively he'll score by beating his man up the floor. He will do this by relying on his terrific athleticism and by outworking his opponent on the offensive boards. On defense, he'll provide a stark contrast to Amare by, hold for tension, actually playing some. My feeling is that Robin will see his minutes balloon from twenty to thirty per game, and the result will be a serviceable stat line. Think of him as a better Anderson Varajao...12 points, 9 boards, 1.5 blocks on above 50% shooting from the floor.

Greg Oden (Starting C for the Trailblazers)
In the past, I have accused this man of having gigantism. Now, I have to explain why he is the perfect post-hype sleeper. Because we have all heard about Oden, I'll give you his cliff notes. The kid who looks like an old man, apparently has the body of an old man. After injuring himself in high school and college (right wrist surgery), he missed his entire rookie year (microfracture surgery on his right knee), twenty games of his sophomore campaign (chipped knee cap) and sixty games last season (fractured left patella). So why take the risk? Well, there is a reason Greg Oden was taken first overall, even above fantasy's hoops probable first pick Kevin Durant. Oden is one of the strongest players I have ever watched play. He combines that strength with tremendous leaping ability, especially for a center. He gets good position in the post, using his wide frame to create great passing lanes, and can actually finish with either hand. He's got great lateral quickness which combined with his other freakish abilities; make him a phenomenal shot blocker. While he can be over-aggressive and pick up cheap fouls (specifically while hitting the offensive boards), he is on par with Andrew Bynum and right behind Dwight Howard for best center when (emphasize when) healthy.

As a Greg Oden owner last year I was supremely disappointed when the big fellow went down for the season. His play was improving game by game and the 22 year old was starting to look more and more like a veteran. After all, the kid had only played one seasons' worth of games in his three NBA seasons, and yet he was looking like he hadn't missed a beat. His per 36 minute stats (I repeat the stat a lot, but it really is an important barometer), were astounding. 16.7 points, 12.8 rebounds and 3.4 blocks! Those are Superman numbers. Except one major difference from Dwight Howard’s evenly matched stats; this defender of the paint can actually shoot the ball as displayed by his 76% clip from the charity stripe. If Oden stays healthy for an entire season, he has top two round potential. Not many players you can say that about. And considering how late he could slip after an injury plagued career, he is worth the risk. Now, I'm not a doctor and I can't speculate on whether or not these injuries are likely to repeat. All I can do is recommend that he drink more milk and hope for the best. If he plays 65 games, it will be a huge success and he'll reward you with a stat line of around 13, 10 and more than 2 blocks.

Leandro Barbosa and Demar DeRozen (Starting SG and SF for the Raptors)
With Chris Bosh vanishing like a fart in the wind and Hedo heading southwest, there are suddenly 35 points per game up for grabs in Toronto. Look to Barbosa and DeRozen to help pick up the slack. The 27 year old Barbosa is coming off his worst season since his sophomore campaign during the 2004-2005 season. The plus? It means you get to buy low. This 6'3 Brazilian exceeds the quick label. He's like one of those wind up toys. Give him a crank, toss him onto the court, and watch his perpetual motion. He's a reliable three point shooter with a 6'10 wingspan that makes him an excellent candidate to pick up more than a handful of steals. Despite a weak left hand, he is so quick that he can finish at the hoop with ease and should transition easily from Phoenix's offense to Toronto's similar sets. Even in a down year, we can quickly point to injuries and limited playing time in explaining a drop off in production. Barbosa is a shooter and a scorer who can play both guard positions. On a team devoid of talent, he could be in for a huge season. Let him start for the year and 16, 2 and 4 with almost two threes per game are not out of reach.

As for DeMar? You may know him best as a dunker, but he is so much more. After seeing a vast improvement after the all-star break, DeRozen continued his progress by absolutely dominating the Vegas Summer League. As the leagues’ third-leading scorer, DMDR averaged 21 points, 4.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists on an astounding 58% from the floor. While traditionally explosive athletes like DeRozen tend to dominate in Vegas, this type of production seems indicative of things to come. However, it was one factor that really sold me on DeRozen, his field goal percentage. DeRozen shot 50% from the floor last season, and for a swingman, that percentage is staggering. In fact, DMDR shot 54% from the floor after the all-star break last season. When you can score 8.6 points per game on only 6.7 shot attempts per game, all you need is opportunity. The exodus of Bosh and Turkoglu provide exactly that. DMDR will take over Hedo's starting spot and might just be the new future of this franchise along with rookie Ed Davis. I wouldn't put a 15 point per game season out of the question for a player whose athleticism is oft-compared to Vince Carter. Somebody needs to pick up slack North of the border, and these two will be the main beneficiaries.

JaVale McGee (Starting C for the Wizards)
Ever since I learned about wingspan, I have loved JaVale McGee. This seven footer packs an impressive vertical, a nice mid-range jumper and a 7'6 wingspan. The son of a WNBA player, he was born to block shots. Some may be asking, how can you hype a player who averaged only 6.4 points last season? The answer is simple. McGee is a freak, plain and simple. This pick is boom or bust. He is completely unpredictable and defines the term project center. However, all signs from this summer are encouraging. After entering the league rail thin, McGee looks to have finally added some bulk (and possibly even upped his basketball IQ). McGee has spent time this off-season between Team USA tryouts and the Vegas Summer league where he and John Wall stole the show. He easily threw down countless alley-oops from the first overall pick, and that chemistry could carry over into the regular season. While Wall topped all scorers with 23.5 points per game, McGee was right on his heals, coming in fourth in that department. JVMC might not have been his usual swat-master self, but his 19.5 points and 9.3 rebounds on 69% shooting more than make up for that. Better yet, with Brendan Haywood gone permanently, McGee becomes the only true center in Washington.

I'd be lying if I didn't worry about the potential of a Yi and Blatche frountcourt combo, but Blatche is far better suited to play the four as he can't defend an NBA center despite being seven feet tall. I project a starting line-up of Wall, Gilbert Arenas, Al Thornton, Andray Blatche and McGee. As you can see that leaves very little opportunity to score, but McGee is more effective on put back dunks than back to the basket moves. His value in fantasy comes from shot blocking and rebounding, which should come in spades if McGee can just stay on the court for nearly 30 minutes per game. Think about Tyson Chandler back when he played with Chris Paul, and that is the role McGee will most similarly resemble. 8 points, 10 rebounds with two blocks are what you can expect from McGee if he lands the starting job, a big jump from last seasons 6 and 5. He's a project, but that’s perfect for a rebuilding Wizards team.

Reggie Williams (Starting SF for the Warriors)Reggie Williams
The Golden State Warriors offense is one that any fantasy manager needs to be familiar with. Each year they take unheard of or forgotten players, and turn them into commodities (whether it be undrafted rookies like Anthony Morrow, unheard of big men like Andris Biendrins or undersized shooting guards like Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis.) This off-season, there has been some shake-up down by the bay. Corey Maggette took his twenty points and oversized contract to Milwaukee in exchange for cap relief. David Lee did his best Lewis and Clark impersonation, traveling westward bound from New York in exchange for Anthony Randolph, Ronny Turiaf and Kelenna Azubuike. With their movement, there are four guaranteed starting roster spots with Curry, Ellis, Lee and Biedrins. The starting small forward position is up for grabs, and could yield favorable results. That competition comes down to two players with interesting upside. Reggie Williams is still largely unknown to casual fans so allow a short bio. Williams is a 6'6 swingman from the Virginia Military Institute. There he averaged 28 points per game as both a junior and senior, yet went undrafted nonetheless. After a successful stint in the NBDL where he averaged 26 points and 5.7 rebounds, Williams signed a ten-day contract with the Warriors, who eventually signed the youngster for the rest of the season. In 24 games, Williams averaged 15.2 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists on 49% from the floor, 84% from the line and adding 1.4 threes per game. Needless to say, the Warriors had found themselves a very useful player, and fantasy owners can do the same.

Looking for more proof of R-Dubs legitimacy? How about an MVP-type summer league performance? (22.6, 4.4, 2.8) The fact is, Golden State is well known for a wide open offense with a plethora of threes. Last year this team averaged 108.8 points per game on  an jaw-dropping 86.5 field goal attempts per game (good for second and first in the league respectively). With that many possessions, all five starters have the capability of being fantasy relevant. Combining Williams’ versatility, athleticism and shooting touch, he could be in for a very surprising year. Of course, there is always the potential that 6'9 shooting guard Dorell Wright lands the starting gig. This former first round pick has never averaged more than 8 points per game, but his ability to play the two, thee or four make him very useful, as does his superb defense. If Wright lands the starting gig, Williams becomes a player to be added and dropped throughout the season. If Williams can hold off the former Heat sub, a season of 13, 5 and 2-3 with 1.5 threes is in the cards.

These are the players that will help you reach the promised land. If you are looking for more advice, I suggest you look at my rookie analysis which details other potential late round picks with great value. It is also worth noting that while all these players should outperform their draft slot, it is only of value if you take them near their projected draft position. By over-drafting somebody for whom you have high expectations, you eliminate any upside and allow yourself for a large potential loss. Other than Felton, most of these players will not be drafted inside the top hundred, so make sure you wait to take them. You need not draft all of them, merely know the names and wait for them to fall through the cracks. And while I didn't write about him due to certain legal ramifications, Anthony Randolph remains a terrific high-risk, high-reward pick. So in the immortal words of Edward R. Murrow, “good night and good luck.”