Fantasy Daily: Biggest Busts

What a tremendous bust! No, that comment is not directed at a former Baywatch cast member. Throughout this season, we have seen many players make that impressive leap from draft day afterthought to fantasy stardom (Channing Frye anybody?). On the other hand, we have seen just as many players fall faster than that of Tiger Woods credibility post Thanksgiving 2009. Or maybe not quite that fast. We have seen an era begin to whither as the players from the mind-blowing 1996 NBA Draft have begun to fade into the twilight. This has been exemplified by Allen Iverson’s trying season both on and off the court, Stephon Marbury’s move to Spain, and Kerry Kittles Kaizer Soze-esque vanishing act. But I digress…In a season where rookies have proven to be elite performers and Marc has challenged Pau for the title of best Gasol brother, one of the more important stories is about the players we are not talking about. With the fantasy playoffs only a week away, under producing teams are forced to sit home and procrasturbate (Awesome word right? Masturbating solely out of boredom, thanks Tosh.0.) A group gripe session is just what the doctor ordered.

Kevin Garnett-Even before the draft, it was obvious that KG no longer deserved consideration as a cream of the crop fantasy player. His pre-draft rank of 17 however, ensured a lofty draft position. This season as a Celtics fan, it has been difficult to watch a player who is either A) injured, B) past his prime or C) both. Garnett’s stat line of 14, 7.5 and 2.8 does come with a block and steal so he still is valuable to teams, but that production certainly does not warrant a second round pick. The biggest problem with KG? Other than the fact he never utilizes his length in the post, he is still trying to play the same type of game he did as an athletic youngster. For a big man, with his intensity, intelligence and terrific shooting touch, Garnett could still be a very valuable commodity. He merely refuses to adapt.

Jose Calderon-Most third round picks don’t end the season as a reserve, but that is exactly what happened to the ocho. After years of dominating roto leagues with high percentages, lofty assist totals and minimal turnovers, owners were left pining for the good ole’ days. Averaging 3.1 assists per game fewer than last season, Calderon has also seen his free throw percentage wane significantly from last season’s eye popping 98% to this season’s more mundane 82%. With seven minutes fewer per game and new additions of Jarrett Jack and Hedo Turkoglu, Calderon no longer composes the Toronto offense. Even when Calderon was an elite fantasy performer, not many analysts would say he was one of the leagues elite players. His value derived from how the Raptors offense was run through him. With more options, his value was destined to drop, and when Jack played well in his absence, the writing was on the wall. Those looking for a rebound next year might want to look elsewhere. If Calderon regains his starting job over the off-season and if Bosh stays, Calderon could be a sleeper. But more likely you should sleep through next season’s encore performance.

Gilbert Arenas-Inmate zero. Enough said.

Andris Biedrins-How do I not talk about Biedrins? Last season, he was one of the only players on Golden State to provide a real inside presence and took advantage of it with averages of 12, 11 and 1.6 blocks on 58% shooting. Well, a season later at least he still shot at a 59% clip. He may be averaging seven fewer minutes per game and has missed half the season, but at least he’s hitting 84% of his free throws. Wait…what? My statistician is telling me that in fact Biedrins is MISSING 84% of his free throws. And yes, that is an NBA record for ineptitude from the charity stripe. It’s been a tough season for the Warriors and this languishing Latvian is no exception. Next season, the Warriors will have Brendan Wright and Anthony Randolph back. They could also bring in a big man with their draft pick. Unfortunately, Biedrins seems to fallen out of favor with Don Nelson but is untradeable due to the four years and 36 million dollars still remaining on his contract. Biedrins has to be a part of  this team’s future whether they want him to be or not, so keep your eyes peeled for a potential bounce back from what is hopefully just a write-off season.

Hedo Turkoglu-Do players try harder in contract seasons? In Hedo’s case he had 53 million reasons to have a career year. After two consecutive seasons of 16+, 5 and 5, Hidayet (yes, that’s his real name) has leveled off.  Without his former role of point forward, Turkoglu has seen his position in the offense wane and his numbers follow in kind. This season’s stat line of 12, 5 and 4 is solid, but not for the price most people paid for Hedo. His 41% field goal percentage and lack of any defensive production also leave a lot to be desired. Tuck’s surprising level of athleticism seems to be regressing and it looks like he is destined to be one of the NBA’s most overpaid players for years to come. One big indication of Hedo’s diminishing production? He is taking two fewer free throw attempts per game; an obvious sign that Turkoglu is being less aggressive. While his three point percentage hovers around his career average, clearly his playmaking ability is on the decline. Owners disappointed with the Turkish Terror should note that he does have a well rounded fantasy game (minus the lack of blocks and steals) so he could be a valuable commodity later in drafts, but don’t break the bank reaching for Hedo.

Leandro Barbosa-Depending on what website you use for your league, Barbosa could have been drafted in a number of places. While yahoo ranked him in the 60’s, ESPN had him about thirty picks down. Either way, owners are regretting this substandard pick.  After averaging 14.2 ppg on 48% shooting, the Brazilian Blur was rumored to be starting with Jason Richardson being pushed to the small forward slot. With Shaq gone, the days of running and gunning were set to return and the speedy guard was set to capitalize. Of course, that’s why hindsight is 20/20. Not only has Barbosa missed 38 games, but even when healthy, Barbosa has averaged a very pedestrian 10.6 points on 42% shooting. In fact, Barbosa was averaging just a shade less than twenty minutes per game. After starting the first two games of the season and dropping 17 and 24 respectively, Barbosa only started another three games the rest of the way. Although he is set to return Tuesday against Minnesota, at present time, Barbosa has missed 25 consecutive games with wrist surgery. This is a situation to monitor for next season. I think ultimately the Suns want to start the uber-quick Barbosa alongside the ultra-quick Steve Nash (although I don’t know which of those prefixes is more impressive). Despite being drafted in 2003, Barbosa is still only 27. He could still see a terrific season next year, especially in terms of three-pointers made. He just needs to hold down the starting two-guard spot.

Richard Jefferson-Most of the time when a player’s scoring drops eight points per game from one season to the next, you can best your bottom dollar they’ll be considered a bust. RJ is no exception. For some reason analysts thought Jefferson would be a perfect fit in San Antonio. They believed that he would be the energetic scorer to complement Duncan’s methodical offensive attack. Unfortunately, Jefferson has seen his free throw attempts drop from 6.3 per game to a mere 3.3, while his shooting is eight percent worse from the stripe. While Jefferson is the athlete that the Spurs so desperately needed, he lacks the lofty basketball IQ to play within the Spurs half-court set. Despite logging the second most minutes for his team (only five minutes behind TD) his plus/minus ranks fourth. The Spurs are a solid squad so he is bound to have a positive plus/minus, but the fact that his minutes are so high and his plus/minus are relatively low shows that he does not help the team as they had hoped. If Jefferson gets moved in the off-season and gets to be the focus of an offense he could have a Corey Maggette like impact, but if he remains in San Antonio, RJ should be an afterthought on draft day next year.

Blake Griffin-I’ll end this piece with a bit of optimism. People who drafted early and got stuck with Blake Griffin, you have my…well not deepest, but you definitely have my sympathy. Griffin had an average draft position (ADP) of 78.5, lower than fellow rookies and newborn fantasy stars Tyreke Evans and Stephen Curry. Despite a fractured left patella that ended Griffin’s season, I believe good things are in store for this explosive 6’10 power forward. Childhood images of Shawn “Rain Man” Kemp come flooding back when watching Blake Superior. With a starting spot ensured following the Marcus Camby trade, a 16 and 8 season seems reasonable for the 2009 draft’s top overall pick. People may be scared of looming effects from Griffin’s injury. This could allow you to grab Blake much later than you would have this season. So while you’re fantasy team may be out of the playoff picture due to Griffin’s unexpected season spoiler, don’t be deterred to draft BG32 again.

With the fantasy playoffs on-going and Roto leagues coming to a halt with only fifteen or so games left, many owners are left with nothing but consolation brackets to compete in. So please, let me make my plea. Compete. Try to win your consolation bracket instead of letting your roster decay with inactive players. Watch who streaks late in the season and use it as a launching pad for next season. Plenty of young players like Andray Blatche are being given their first chance to prove themselves as stars and future faces of the franchise. Get the jump on the stars of tomorrow…today.