Fantasy Daily: The Caron Butler Deal

What a weekend. Despite what may have been the worst dunk contest since the days of Darrell Armstrong, we were lucky enough to bear witness to a terrific rookie team upset, a thrilling all-star game and most noteworthy…a Paul Pierce victory in the three-point competition. Sure I am slightly less than subjective (re: incredibly biased), but after a 2002 showing where more time was spent keeping his pants up than draining trey’s, Pierce's brilliant performance was certainly a welcome sight. What’s more? We had our first real trade of the season. For those of you who have not yet heard, Washington and Dallas collaborated on a seven-player deal centered around Caron Butler and Josh Howard. Along with Josh Howard’s expiring contract, the Wizards received the expiring contracts of Drew Gooden, Quentin Ross and James Singleton. Dallas, however, did more than try to move salary. With clear intentions on making a playoff push they added Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson alongside the former UCONN standout Butler. Two things are clear from this trade. One: Dallas (and more importantly owner Mark Cuban) is committed to winning no matter what the cost. Two: Washington as we all thought, is in sell-mode. They are interested in immediate salary cap relief, so a trade of Antawn Jamison in the next week would surprise nobody. With seven players swapping jerseys, there are some winners and some losers. Mainly, anybody escaping the basketball hell aka The Washington Wizards should be praising the heavens. But most relevant to a fantasy writer such as myself are (gasp)…the fantasy ramifications.

For starters, if you somehow owned DeShawn Stevenson, Quentin Ross or James Singleton you probably shouldn’t be reading fantasy columns….you should be taking up a new hobby. I hear knitting is great for passing time. The other players in the deal? Completely different story. With Howard in Washington, he is suddenly a must-add should he be available. If you can land him in a trade…I say pull the trigger. He moves from fifth or sixth option to top dog, assuming Jamison has a change of address before the February 18th trade deadline. While his season stats of 12.5 and 3.6 are underwhelming, this is a player who is logging six minutes fewer than last year when he averaged 18 and 5.1 with 1.1 steals on 45% shooting. Hell, during the 2007-2008 season when Howard logged 36 minutes per game, he averaged 20 and 7. At 29 years old, he may be on the decline but he is far from done. On a depleted Wizards ballclub, he will be forced to carry the load, and in fantasy basketball opportunity breeds production. A trade should re-energize Howard and provide a terrific spark for teams making a play-off push.

In Dallas? Things could get complicated. While Haywood should get the starting nod over Eric Dampier, his value has to be somewhat impaired by this deal. Being traded in the midst of a career year (9.8, 10.4 and 2.1 blocks) to a competitor is a dream to most players…just not to us, their fantasy owners. Haywood should see his minutes wane with a capable back-up behind him, and with better rebounding help in the frontcourt with Shawn Marion and Dirk Nowitzki, there is no better time to sell high on Haywood. When a 30-year old center suddenly puts up terrific numbers in a career year, I get suspicious. When it happens on a bad team, it is typically the first time this player has been given such an opportunity. When all these factors combine, I know the end result. Haywood should be productive, but to the tune of 8 and 8 with a little over a block. Same goes for Butler. There simply is not the same opportunity to take shots in Dallas as there was in Washington. After averaging 15 attempts per game with Washington that number could fall to near ten with Dallas. His 6.7 rebounds? Not while playing shooting guard instead of forward. Butler has been logging almost forty minutes per game this season! Seems tough when he has to compete for minutes with Shawn Marion and Jason Terry instead of Nick Young and Mike Miller. In reality most Dallas players take a slight hit. Marion was hardly having a great season and his versatility should keep him on the court, but he will still see his minutes diminish. Dampier goes from borderline player to not in consideration. Even JET could see his production drop with less PT.

While I imagine Drew Gooden will be bought out, he could be a productive player should he stick with Washington, so it’s tough to make a definitive statement. Mike Miller has been playing well of late, and his value should upsurge following this blockbuster. Jason Kidd gets to lead a more powerful offense, but the downside is the possibility that Dallas goes with a Terry, Butler, Marion, Dirk and Haywood line-up at times and thusly, he sees his minutes lag some. Those two factors should cancel each other out, as his value remains consistent.

Trade season is clearly just getting started. Rumors are flying around as new rumblings are reported by the second. Whether it be involving Antawn Jamison, the possible trade of Amare to Cleveland, the final destination of Tyrus Thomas or any other possibility, I will be here at Hoops Daily to keep you informed. This trade deadline is crucial as players swapping teams can greatly impact their fantasy value. With a stagnant pool of free agents, this may be the last opportunity to make a real impact on your squad, so make sure to act fast before another manager steals your momentum.