Fantasy Daily: Fantasy vs. Reality

Kevin Garnett or Dirk Nowitzki? Jose Calderon or Tony Parker? Dwight Howard or Pau Gasol? The answers to these questions all depend on how you value these players. Are they based on their fantasy performances or how they prevail in real life? While fantasy sports have allowed Joe Schmo to play his dream role of a GM, they can be misleading if given too much stock. Just look at this weeks match-up between myself and fellow hoopsdaily writer Jon Pastuszek. In our league, I hold an early 11-1 lead; my team sits in first and his in last. That type of domination doesn’t even necessitate smack talk; after all, you think the Harlem Globetrotters are proud after they beat the Washington Generals? Our particular match-up is fascinating because by all means Jon in an incredibly knowledgeable basketball aficionado with the ability to analyze talent. That type of information is valuable for analysis, but won’t necessarily lead to a league title. Fantasy is an entirely different animal than reality and the awareness of that needs to be spread among fantasy followers.
Zach Randolph is about as useful as a poopy flavor lollipop. Well, at least in real life. It may be known as the Eddy Curry line, but Randolph is the worst perpetrator. He is typically the only player to average more turnovers than assists, blocks and steals combined. In other words, he can score and rebound but does little else to help his team. He is a black hole from which the ball cannot escape. Some may call him Zach Ran-olph because he has no D. But in fantasy…who can argue with 18 and 10. The truth is, any player in the NBA is capable of scoring when the ball is constantly in his hands. Not everybody though, can make their teammates better. Years ago Shawn Marion was the top ranked fantasy player with his ability to put up numbers in every statistical category. This Swiss-army-like versatility was incredible for a fantasy roster, but not many people would argue he was even a top fifteen player in the NBA. Players like Bruce Bowen could dominate games defensively by neutralizing the opposing teams best perimeter player, but his fantasy value was bested by the likes of Quentin Richardson, DeShawn Stevenson and other wild chuckers. This fantasy emphasis was transcendent. GM’s started doling out big money for players with fantasy value; who on the contrary, had very little to offer in reality. Going back to Randolph who inked his six-year $84 million contract back in 2004, many others have benefited for similar reasons. Corey Maggette is another recipient of a fantasy driven contract. His athletic ability is nearly as promising as league stars, but he has an insanely low basketball IQ and very high self-confidence. After a season where he averaged 22 points and 5.6 rebounds, Maggette inked a five-year $50 million dollar contract. Partly based on losing Baron Davis to the Clippers, the Warriors signing was quickly questioned by league observers.

Simply put, a steal on it’s own does not show good defense. High scoring might not entail great offensive ability. A steal can be the result of being overly aggressive and over-playing passing lanes while a basket could just be the result of selfish basketball. Recently, Kevin Garnett deservingly won defensive player of the year averaging 9.2 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.2 blocks. Plenty of players have more impressive numbers, but Garnett’s ability to jump out on the pick and roll and still get back to protect the basket can not be measured statistically. His ability to provide help defense and force difficult shots is not numerically quantifiable. For crying out loud, Amare Stoudemire averaged 9.1 rebounds, .8 steals and 2.1 blocks during the 2007-2008 season and he has been criticized for his defensive ineptitude throughout his career.

Just observe what happens when a player leaves a system when he is the alpha dog and plays for a contender with other weapons around. Their ability hasn’t waned significantly in a year, but their production typically does. Richard Jefferson averaged 19.9 points per game last year and is down to 15.6 this year. Considering that his shooting percentage has actually risen 6%!, would Kevin Martin be a fantasy star on Cleveland? No. Why? The offense is not run through him. So if a change of scenery can so dramatically change output, clearly numbers do not tell the entire story.

During the 2006-2007 season Eddie Curry averaged 19.5 points and 7 rebounds on 57% shooting yet the team only went 33-49. He was an incredibly valuable asset. Similarly, Antawn Jamison averaged 19.8 points and 8.0 rebounds on 45% shooting. On paper, the numbers were identical and Curry had the far superior shooting percentage. Closer inspection though, reveals that Curry’s 3.6 turnovers per game meant he was forcing action rather than letting the game come to him and subsequently, the team suffered. On the flip side, Jamison’s unselfish ways allowed his teammates to contribute while forcing theopponent to earn their points. This led to a 41-41 record and a playoff appearance.

While fantasy stats will never fully capture an individual’s defensive ability, a bigger roadblock is simply playing time. Often, there are terrific players stuck on the end of their team's bench. Perhaps this is due to their age. Perhaps the player is considered raw. Perhaps the coach feels more comfortable with a set rotation. Regardless of why it happens, we see players switch teams and make the leap from fantasy obscurity to hot commodity. When Gerald Wallace and Hedo Turkoglu left the Kings for greener pastures, their production took off. While Turkoglu’s ascension was more gradual, Wallace ascended immediately. Taken by Charlotte in the expansion draft, Wallace went from averaging 2.0 ppg in 9 minutes to 11 ppg in 30 minutes. After one season of adapting to starters minutes, Wallace averaged 15.2 points and 7.5 rebounds in 34 minutes. Wallace always had the skill set to be a great player; he just needed the opportunity.

In 2009 many Gerald Wallace’s lie out there. There are fantastic players wasting away, riding the pine. Some will be all-stars like Wallace; others will be role players like Beno Udrih. But in fantasy, part of being successful is knowing who has the talent, and who just has the opportunity. Anthony Randolph is one player on the path to stardom; he just needs more minutes. Others lie far deeper under the surface. Nick Young is just one example. If he logged regular minutes on a bad team, he could potentially be a future all-star. With great size at the two-guard, he boasts elite athleticism, a terrific mid-range game and could be a great source of steals. Of course right now, Young should not be owned. He simply lacks the chance to be a productive fantasy producer. But in order to be successful, your eyes need to be peeled. Watch for that bench player who comes out of nowhere to drop thirty points. If the ability is there, the opportunity will someday follow. Everybody’s level of dedication to fantasy differs. Perhaps I am more competitive than most. But if you take the time to watch a few games (http://www.rwbsports.com/) you’ll find a host of moths, just waiting to shed their cocoon and emerge fresh.   Post Script…Please enjoy the posted link, it may be the greatest website I have ever found as it hosts almost every NBA game on a nightly basis. And as a bonus I have prepared a full list of these so-called “Larva” players:
Andray Blatche, George Hill, Rodrigue Beaubois, Jerryd Bayless, Ty Lawson, J.J. Hickson, Marvin Williams and Jason Maxiell.   David Solar can be reached at david@hoopsdaily.com