Fantasy Daily: Greg Oden Injury Update

Let the Sam Bowie comparisons begin. With Greg Oden suffering a season ending knee injury, he may spend his career being linked with the oft-injured Blazer picked ahead of Michael Jordan. Whether this is just merely another roadblock on Oden’s road to greatness or the beginning of the end, it is a striking blow to a young center with such high potential. Moreover this injury will haunt the Blazers for years as Kevin Durant continues to blossom into one of the leagues most dynamic players. I for one, was completely on Portland’s side even before this season began for their disputed pick of Oden with the number one overall pick in 2007. Teams win championships with dominant defensive big men, not one-dimensional scorers. After some studying, I have come up with a slightly controversial view on why drafting Oden may have been the wrong move. We all mocked him his freshman year at Ohio State. As an 18 year old, he looked to be ancient, clearly older than a majority of his professors. We viewed this as something to joke about and nothing serious. In hindsight though, this was an issue that should have been scrutinized. While big-men like Shaquille O’Neal and Dwight Howard tower over others, their faces are completely normal. They resemble any average Joe…if Joe happened to grow a foot or so. But what about some of the odder looking big-men of recent years? Gheorghe Muresan. Kenny George. Sun Ming Ming. These men all suffer from a growth hormone excess referred to as Gigantism. This condition can lead to many health problems involving the skeletal and circulatory system. It can be characterized by the thickening of facial features and frontal bossing; an unusually prominent forehead, sometimes associated with a heavier than normal brow ridge. While I do not think Greg Oden has full blown gigantism (as a diagnosis would have been made by now), he certainly has a few of these symptoms. That said, he might actually have injury problems throughout his career based on some type of pre-existing medical condition. I do not mean to sound mean, and am clearly not a doctor, but following injuries in High School, College, and every single NBA season, one has to start questioning if there is some underlying problem. Sure fantasy rosters will miss his rebounding and shot blocking, but more importantly the city of Portland and all subsequent fans will surely feel a void. You cannot fully replace a special athlete like Oden. Somebody just takes his place.

For the rest of the season, Portland will likely start the former Gopher Joel Pryzbilla at center. While he lacks any semblance of a scorer’s mentality, he can still be of value for people in deeper leagues or those reeling from the loss of Oden. His career average of 20 minutes per game should shoot up, meaning his other averages of 3.6 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks should all be on the rise as well. Splitting minutes with Oden last season, Pryz averaged 5.5 points, 8.7 boards and 1.2 rejections on 62.5 percent shooting in 24 minutes. Similar numbers should be on tap down the stretch, even if his incredible efficiency from the field drops slightly. Last season he only attempted 3.3 shots per game, and if that number ever rises Pryzbilla could be a surprisingly valuable fantasy commodity. I have written recently about Kendrick Perkins and mentioned Brendan Haywood in passing. Either of those widely unowned centers could help teams reeling from the loss of Oden.

As far as fellow Blazers players, it should be pretty much business as usual. LaMarcus Aldridge could see more run at center and should see an increase in rebounding and possibly scoring. Juwan Howard becomes the back-up center but has lacked fantasy relevance for years now, and should not even be considered as a roster add.  Travis Outlaw would have seen increased minutes at power forward…were he not injured for the next three to five months. Nicolas Batum is out with an injury as well leaving Portland with a serious dearth of healthy bodies. Brandon Roy could be logging even more minutes, and a three-guard line-up including himself, Andre Miller and Steve Blake will become more likely. Portland will be forced to play with smaller line-ups barring a trade, and it could be an interesting period to see how some of their young talent looks. I have always been a fan of Jerryd Bayless, so keep an eye on his minutes. Rookie Dante Cunningham is used to playing the big-mans role in an undersized line-up so his minutes should definitely be on the up and up. His fantasy value is still extremely limited. Do not be surprised to see Portland enter trade talks as this young team is in the thick of the play-off hunt at 13-8. With many young players to work with, and the ready availability of players such as Tyrus Thomas (who was originally drafted by Portland before being traded for LaMarcus Aldridge on draft day), a trade could easily get done within the next few weeks. An older veteran looking for a home looms as a possibility, but that move provides limited fantasy impact. This latest Oden injury will be felt across the fantasy spectrum, but viewing this solely as a mathematical formula with fewer numbers would be a slap in the face to the game of basketball. I wish Oden a speedy recovery, even if I doubt his true potential will ever be realized.