Fantasy Daily: Injury Report

Let me give everybody out there a dollar’s worth of free advice…trading for injured players can derail a season. Doesn’t matter what sport it is. Simply put, if you give up a valued member of your team for somebody with an undetermined return date, you could end up waiting all year. Having said that (thank you Larry David), if you know how to work the injury game, you can buy low on some terrific players. More importantly, if you are fortunate enough to find yourself atop the league standings, it may be the ideal time to make a move. Most people fear messing with a good thing. Do you think though, that Twix would now have peanut butter had we settled for mere caramel? Would Jenna Jameson have gotten breast implants? Would Friday Night Lights have been made into a TV show? No. And yet, all these moves have tremendously impacted my life. The truth is the last few players on your roster are probably barely better than the best players on waivers. Just looking around my league, there are plenty of players in the free agent pool who should be owned and enough questionable roster spaces being held up by the Yi Jianlan’s of the world. So how do you know which injured players are the best trade targets? Easy. Just leave it to me.

Blake Griffin: Watching him in the summer league and all throughout his college career, it was clear Griffin was a "can’t miss" prospect. His facial on DJ Mbenga was straight up cold-blooded. Physically he is more reminiscent of a Bengal Tiger than a human. His strength and athleticism at the power forward position is nearly unmatched league wide. Clearly as a rookie he wasn’t going to scratch the surface of his potential, but big numbers wouldn’t have surprised anybody. Griffin has missed nearly a month thus far with a fractured left patella, and is due to miss another four weeks. This is particularly frustrating as Griffin jumps off his left leg. Because he is so explosive, it puts a lot of pressure on that left knee in question. Luckily, Griffin is also young and should heal quicker than most. My analysis? Griffin should make it through the rest of this season, but another leg injury down the line would come as no shock. When he does come back, the team will deal with a logjam in the frontcourt as both Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman have been playing phenomenally.  On the bright side, Camby is dealing with an expiring contract and will not be a part of this team next year. With the premium on big men, Camby could bring back a good package of young talent and draft picks for this young and rebuilding team. Of course this assumes the 8-10 Clippers are out of the playoff hunt. If I am making a deal for Griffin, I have tempered the expectations that were held at draft time. Even so, if you can trade some players from the bottom of your roster for Griffin, what’s the harm in trying?
Season Prediction (50 games): 15 ppg, 7 rpg, 1.5 apg, 52% fg, 64% ft.

Kevin Love: I really don’t know what it is but Kevin Love and I have a very-unspoken bond. In fact, it is so unspoken that he doesn’t know my name. Perhaps it comes from all the criticism thrown at Love prior to the 2008 draft. I was surrounded by so many naysayers; it felt like I was in Horseville. Despite all the negative sentiment, Love averaged 11.1 points and 9.1 rebounds and shot a very respectable 79% from the free throw line. He will never dominate the defensive categories, but neither does David Lee and people don’t seem to complain. As a starting center Love’s numbers were even more impressive. 48 percent from the floor. 86% from the line. 14.4 points. 9.9 rebounds. I was ready to make Love my sleeper de jour. Then came the injury. During the pre-season Love fractured his left hand and was set to miss 6-8 weeks. It’s almost six weeks later now and Love’s return looms clear. The silver lining to Love’s injury? He is a righty. Better yet? He reports no pain in his hand and may be playing in games by next week. I consider this injury far less serious and more of a freakish coincidence than Griffin’s mishap.  Love goes to a team where he should see big minutes almost right off the bat as Minnesota has struggled to win even two games. If I made a new big board right now, Love would crack the top one hundred. In saying that, I would recommend making the move now before he returns to the line-up. His ownership rose 0.7% last week in ESPN leagues, so jump on him now before the big move happens.
Season Prediction (60 games): 14 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 1.0 apg, 46% fg, 78% ft, .5 spg, .7 bpg

Tracy McGrady: The former scoring champion is being told by his team to stay off the floor. After playing only 35 games last season, McGrady says everything is good for launch, yet the Rockets administrators seem to disagree. McGrady’s knee has been a problem for a while and clearly the Rockets are being ultra-conservative.  But why? McGrady is in the last deal of his contract, which pays him the leagues highest salary. This isn’t an issue of protecting his career, as they would have limited liability based on McGrady’s insistence on playing. Yao is out for the season so the team can’t have realistic title chances. Considering the drastic roster makeover, they are sitting on a 9-7 record. Something which is far more respectable than the team could have imagined prior to the season. Perhaps they fear McGrady’s “shoot first then ask questions style” will be detrimental to the “team first” attitude the Rockets have adapted. Whatever it is, McGrady is a fascinating fantasy proposition. His natural two-guard spot has been taken over by Trevor Ariza and with his current production (18 ppg, 5 rpg, 4 apg) he is unlikely to ride the pine train. This is no longer McGrady’s team and that has been made clear. But if he does replace Shane Battier in the line-up, he could be a very helpful asset. Even as he was plagued with injuries last season, McGrady averaged 15.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg and 5 apg. The year before, he managed 66 games and had a very impressive stat line of 21.6 points, 5.1 boards and 5.9 assists. T-Mac is no longer that player, but with 30+ minutes per game he could very well average a Stephen Jackson/Rodney Stuckey type line. McGrady is owned in only 24% of ESPN leagues but 58% of yahoo leagues. Those in ESPN leagues would be wise to take a flier on McGrady as his potential bests that of most 50% owned players including Danilo Gallinari or Ronnie Brewer. It worries me that Houston is being overly cautious and I believe they don’t want him to ruin team chemistry, but if the Rockets begin to falter a few games and the fans start complaining, the T-Mac attack will see the timetable for his return pushed up.
Season Prediction (40 games): 15 ppg, 4 apg, 3.5 rpg, 41% fg, 75% ft, 1+ three made.

Kevin Martin: Martin was the NBA’s leading scorer prior to his injury. When he returns, the Kings no longer may be his team. Tyreke Evans has been unheralded this season as he lies in the vast shadow of fellow rookie Brandon Jennings. He may end up being the better player. Evans 19, 5 and 5 line shows he is the future of the Kings and how he co-exists with Martin should be fascinating. Both are big two guards going 6’6 and 6’7 respectively. Evans is a bruising off-guard currently taking 5.4 free throws a game while Martin’s greatest attribute is his aggressiveness to the hoop, leading to a whopping 10.3 attempts per game last season. Martin’s lucrative long-term contract and reasonably young age (26) mean he should remain in Sacramento for years, but expect a scoring drop on his return. The Kings currently sport an 8-8 record that nobody in the basketball world could have predicted. They have done this mainly without Martin. Add to that the return of Francisco Garcia which should coincide with Martin’s return, and there could be a logjam at the shooting guard and small forward positions. Martin’s actual injury (fractured left wrist) shouldn’t have as much affect on his production as the influx of talent to Sac-town. Jason Thompson looks like a terrific, young, blossoming big man. Beno Udrih has stepped up his play. Tyreke should be a future all-star. Even if Martin comes back as the same player, the 24 point a game average he had last season will be tough to duplicate. On the bright side, with this newfound talent, Martin’s assist numbers and efficiency should rise like an 80 year old man at 4 am. The free throw attempts might also wane slightly, but he should still be a dominant source of attempts with a good percentage.
Season Prediction (50 games): 22 ppg, 4 rpg, 3 apg, 44% fg, 85% ft, 2 three-pointers, 1.0 spg.

While Chris Paul and others remain injured there fates are already sealed. Paul should still be owned in all leagues and will return to his original level of production. Players like Marreese Speights and Brendan Wright should remain unowned until they come back healthy and even then, I will need to see a small sample before giving them the stamp of approval. Just remember, a healthy team is a winning team. Next year when you pick, don’t take the Elton Brand’s of the world high in the draft. Keep your team low-risk early. Keep it high risk late. Those are the keys to success…brought to you by Portland Locksmiths.