Fantasy Daily: Over-owned and under-producing
By David Solar
Tue, 01/12/2010 - 3:48pm
Most often, fantasy writers will use their words to dictate the preeminent players for our readers to own. We discuss the best available athletes so that your team will have a chance at making a title run. One might question though, why ignore the less-baller “ballers”? Look around any league and you will notice less skilled, substandard players that have been held far too long. Like an attic full of trinkets, you can’t tell yourself that it’s really trash. It’s understandable as well. Knowing when to pull the plug is a tough decision; just yesterday I decided to throw out a TV that (much like all of my roommates) hasn’t worked in months.
Identifying when a player hasn’t reached potential isn’t easy. There are often players who struggle for half a season before unleashing the production we had all expected. For that reason, certain pros with poor numbers will not be listed below. The following athletes are on a downward spiral that a large number of fantasy managers have decided to ignore by keeping them on their teams. Sadly, the probability that these players will reach their uptake this season mirrors Frank Vincent’s chance at not being typecast. Without further ado, ready your team. If the following players are on your roster, perhaps it’s time for the Million Dollar Baby treatment. Pretend you are Clint Eastwood aka Frankie Dunn (or Dr. Kevorkian?) and put these players out of their misery by ending their fantasy lives.
Mike Bibby (83.1%)-Best way to start this is by acknowledging I hate Bibby. His comments characterizing Bostonians as fair weather fans still angers up my fists. Simply put, Bibby is an unreliable and one-dimensional performer. His 9.6 points per game is seven points below his career average, and is by far the worst of his tenure on the NBA. Same for his playing time. With only 4.3 assists and 1.7 threes, there are far better players available that offer that type of production (Beno Udrih quickly coming to mind). Moreover, the Atlanta Hawks are just a better team with Bibby on the bench. Against the Celtics on Monday night, the team was far more efficient on both ends of the floor with Jamal Crawford playing ahead of the Bibster. Sure he has a nice FT% of 83, but that doesn’t help much if he only attempts 1.2 per game. Right now he seems to be clinging to rosters based on name recognition, but players change and owners need to move forward. Knowing Bibby went 88 in my most competitive league, it would be no tragedy to see such a late pick hit the waiver wire. When you are the only player in the bunch to have played for a now defunct team, (Vancouver Grizzlies…and when is Memphis going to come up with a new mascot. It’s like Utah being the Jazz despite the fact all musical improvisation has been illegal in the state since 1896) it might just be time to move on.
Mike Dunleavy (72.1%)-He makes Casper look tan, and just like the friendly ghost, he hasn’t shown any signs of life this year. His averages of 12.4 and 1.5 are nothing special, especially when it comes at the expense of a crippling shooting percentage (39%). Dunleavy during the 2007-2008 season was a revelation. If healthy, Dunleavy is a terrific scorer with unbelievable efficiency, but that is the player from yesteryear. Now Dunleavy is an injury-plagued chucker who struggles to crack the starting line-up on a beleaguered Pacer squad. Looking for an affordable replacement? Try Sac-town’s own Omri Casspi.
D.J. Augustin (69.9%)-How is this possible? A few weeks ago while watching a Bobcats game, an acquaintance said Augustin was the only good player on Charlotte. While clearly this individual lacked no insight into the game of basketball, I’ll admit this fascinated me. This “acquaintance” followed the sport enough to know the name D.J. Augustin apparently, but didn’t recognize Gerald Wallace as a star. Augustin is stuck behind Raymond Felton who is playing the most efficient basketball of his career. Currently in seventeen minutes per game, D.J. is averaging 5.7 points and 2.1 assists on 36% shooting. I would honestly rather play an empty roster spot than Augustin. Yet there he is with almost 70% ownership. The list of better available players is longer than the Mitchell Report. And is there any change in sight? Absolutely not. With Augustin’s lack of size or strength he is a terrible defender and should not see the minutes needed to make any impact, even if he started improving on the offensive end. If by opportunity, Felton gets dealt forcing Augustin into the starting line-up, he will have to deal with point-forward Stephen Jackson. There is almost no chance that from here on out Augustin matches his rookie production, so why continue waiting? Randy Foye averaged 16, 3 and 4 last year and is finally in a starting role with Agent Zero about to become Inmate Zero. Make the move.
Ramon Sessions (66.5%)-Sessions was Minnesota’s response to losing Rubio, and thus far has not helped to ease the pain. It’s not that Sessions has been terrible. It’s more that wildman Kurt Rambis won’t play him and Flynn together and that has severely cut back on Sessions minutes. Despite the fact Sessions is only 23 and currently holds a 47% field goal percentage, he is only logging 21 minutes per game. In limited playing time, Sessions is still averaging 7.6 points, 2.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists. That translates out to 13, 5 and 5 per 36 minutes (which is more along the lines of starters playing time). While those numbers don’t set the world on fire, they do help to tell the story about Sessions. He is a good player on a bad team, yet still struggles to get the playing time it would appear he deserves. Unfortunately, fantasy is dictated on what actually happens, not what should happen. Sessions is not producing due to his limited minutes, and I don’t see his minutes drastically changing barring an injury to J-Flynn (knock on wood). Those looking for cheap assists, I recommend Chris Duhon who’s terrible field goal percentage has made him widely available.
Brad Miller (50.1%)-Please trade this man to Portland. Portland needs a big man more than John Travolta needs a new haircut. Or agent for that matter. They are starting Juwan Howard who somehow makes Wilford Brimley and his “diabetus” looks young and hip. Miller lost his starting gig to the rookie Taj Gibson, and with Tyrus Thomas back from injury, he should lose out on even more minutes. Miller is a smart player and good passer, but is simply getting old. He looks slower and doesn’t fit into any of Chicago’s long-term plans. With a twelve million dollar expiring contract, I’m not sure Miller will be dealt. Chicago wants to make a run at hometown favorite Dwyane Wade in free agency and getting twelve million off the payroll is instrumental in making that happen. So for now, Miller will either rot on the bench or somehow (not likely) agree to a buy-out. Even if he were bought out, Miller would likely go to a playoff competitor in an attempt to win his first ring. On any playoff team he would have just as little (or possibly less) fantasy relevance. He’s a 33-year-old center who is somehow shooting only 41%. He averages fewer than seven points and barely over four rebounds. Anybody still looking for the great white hype should closely follow the return of Mike Miller to a depleted Wizards roster. Any more normal person looking for a better option at center should consider Anderson Varejao and his 8 and 8 with a steal and a block. As long as you don’t mind Sideshow Bob-esque floppers with two last names.
Gilbert Arenas (80.1%)-He’s not coming back any time soon so I’ll keep it quick. Cut your losses right now or you’ll end up wasting a roster spot for the rest of the year. The Wizards have stripped all Arenas references in their ads and are looking to purge.
Shaquille O’Neal (54.4%)-Alas, another classic example of a player being retained due to name recognition. It’s sad when the league’s former most dominant player is best known for his expiring contract (or Shaq-spiring contract if we are doing the traditional name transformation the Big Diesel has made so famous). The big fella loves attention, but no longer deserves it. His 10.7 and 7.1 with 1.2 block are numbers that under-owned Kenyon Martin dwarfs, but unlike K-Mart, Shaq can destroy your team with a 51% free throw percentage. And what happens down the line when the season starts wearing on The Big Irishman? Cleveland needs size to stop Dwight Howard in the playoffs, so don’t be surprised to see Shaq take a few games off down the stretch. If anybody in your league hasn’t followed the NBA heavily over the last decade, Shaq is an excellent trade candidate. Otherwise, there are far better alternatives out there.
John Salmons (90.0%)-Salmons has already lost his starting spot to Kirk Hinrich, and I am sure the Bulls would love to shed the final season and a half of Salmons contract so they can be more competitive in this off-season’s free agent frenzy. The strange thing here is that I actually like John Salmons, but his poor production has been undeniable. With Ben Gordon gone, I imagined Salmons would reproduce the numbers from last year’s breakout campaign. Unfortunately after averaging 18, 4 and 2, Big Fish is down to 13, 3 and 2.5 on only 40% shooting. Those hoping a change of scenery could break Salmons off the schinde? Think again. Any playoff hopeful looking for a reasonably priced (five and a half million) defender with terrific versatility would surely give Salmons less than the 34 minutes he’s been logging with the Bulls. Quite simply, at 90% ownership, one has to expect either terrific production of tremendous upside. At 30 years old, Salmons is offering neither. If you own Salmons, I wouldn’t tell you to jump ship immediately. If a Wilson Chandler type is available however, (hopefully Wilson Chandler) you damned better click the drop button.
Other greatly owned players worthy of reassessing: Mario Chalmers (78.2%), Richard Jefferson (82.9%), Allen Iverson (93.8%). David Solar can be reached at David@hoopsdaily.com
Identifying when a player hasn’t reached potential isn’t easy. There are often players who struggle for half a season before unleashing the production we had all expected. For that reason, certain pros with poor numbers will not be listed below. The following athletes are on a downward spiral that a large number of fantasy managers have decided to ignore by keeping them on their teams. Sadly, the probability that these players will reach their uptake this season mirrors Frank Vincent’s chance at not being typecast. Without further ado, ready your team. If the following players are on your roster, perhaps it’s time for the Million Dollar Baby treatment. Pretend you are Clint Eastwood aka Frankie Dunn (or Dr. Kevorkian?) and put these players out of their misery by ending their fantasy lives.
Mike Bibby (83.1%)-Best way to start this is by acknowledging I hate Bibby. His comments characterizing Bostonians as fair weather fans still angers up my fists. Simply put, Bibby is an unreliable and one-dimensional performer. His 9.6 points per game is seven points below his career average, and is by far the worst of his tenure on the NBA. Same for his playing time. With only 4.3 assists and 1.7 threes, there are far better players available that offer that type of production (Beno Udrih quickly coming to mind). Moreover, the Atlanta Hawks are just a better team with Bibby on the bench. Against the Celtics on Monday night, the team was far more efficient on both ends of the floor with Jamal Crawford playing ahead of the Bibster. Sure he has a nice FT% of 83, but that doesn’t help much if he only attempts 1.2 per game. Right now he seems to be clinging to rosters based on name recognition, but players change and owners need to move forward. Knowing Bibby went 88 in my most competitive league, it would be no tragedy to see such a late pick hit the waiver wire. When you are the only player in the bunch to have played for a now defunct team, (Vancouver Grizzlies…and when is Memphis going to come up with a new mascot. It’s like Utah being the Jazz despite the fact all musical improvisation has been illegal in the state since 1896) it might just be time to move on.
Mike Dunleavy (72.1%)-He makes Casper look tan, and just like the friendly ghost, he hasn’t shown any signs of life this year. His averages of 12.4 and 1.5 are nothing special, especially when it comes at the expense of a crippling shooting percentage (39%). Dunleavy during the 2007-2008 season was a revelation. If healthy, Dunleavy is a terrific scorer with unbelievable efficiency, but that is the player from yesteryear. Now Dunleavy is an injury-plagued chucker who struggles to crack the starting line-up on a beleaguered Pacer squad. Looking for an affordable replacement? Try Sac-town’s own Omri Casspi.
D.J. Augustin (69.9%)-How is this possible? A few weeks ago while watching a Bobcats game, an acquaintance said Augustin was the only good player on Charlotte. While clearly this individual lacked no insight into the game of basketball, I’ll admit this fascinated me. This “acquaintance” followed the sport enough to know the name D.J. Augustin apparently, but didn’t recognize Gerald Wallace as a star. Augustin is stuck behind Raymond Felton who is playing the most efficient basketball of his career. Currently in seventeen minutes per game, D.J. is averaging 5.7 points and 2.1 assists on 36% shooting. I would honestly rather play an empty roster spot than Augustin. Yet there he is with almost 70% ownership. The list of better available players is longer than the Mitchell Report. And is there any change in sight? Absolutely not. With Augustin’s lack of size or strength he is a terrible defender and should not see the minutes needed to make any impact, even if he started improving on the offensive end. If by opportunity, Felton gets dealt forcing Augustin into the starting line-up, he will have to deal with point-forward Stephen Jackson. There is almost no chance that from here on out Augustin matches his rookie production, so why continue waiting? Randy Foye averaged 16, 3 and 4 last year and is finally in a starting role with Agent Zero about to become Inmate Zero. Make the move.
Ramon Sessions (66.5%)-Sessions was Minnesota’s response to losing Rubio, and thus far has not helped to ease the pain. It’s not that Sessions has been terrible. It’s more that wildman Kurt Rambis won’t play him and Flynn together and that has severely cut back on Sessions minutes. Despite the fact Sessions is only 23 and currently holds a 47% field goal percentage, he is only logging 21 minutes per game. In limited playing time, Sessions is still averaging 7.6 points, 2.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists. That translates out to 13, 5 and 5 per 36 minutes (which is more along the lines of starters playing time). While those numbers don’t set the world on fire, they do help to tell the story about Sessions. He is a good player on a bad team, yet still struggles to get the playing time it would appear he deserves. Unfortunately, fantasy is dictated on what actually happens, not what should happen. Sessions is not producing due to his limited minutes, and I don’t see his minutes drastically changing barring an injury to J-Flynn (knock on wood). Those looking for cheap assists, I recommend Chris Duhon who’s terrible field goal percentage has made him widely available.
Brad Miller (50.1%)-Please trade this man to Portland. Portland needs a big man more than John Travolta needs a new haircut. Or agent for that matter. They are starting Juwan Howard who somehow makes Wilford Brimley and his “diabetus” looks young and hip. Miller lost his starting gig to the rookie Taj Gibson, and with Tyrus Thomas back from injury, he should lose out on even more minutes. Miller is a smart player and good passer, but is simply getting old. He looks slower and doesn’t fit into any of Chicago’s long-term plans. With a twelve million dollar expiring contract, I’m not sure Miller will be dealt. Chicago wants to make a run at hometown favorite Dwyane Wade in free agency and getting twelve million off the payroll is instrumental in making that happen. So for now, Miller will either rot on the bench or somehow (not likely) agree to a buy-out. Even if he were bought out, Miller would likely go to a playoff competitor in an attempt to win his first ring. On any playoff team he would have just as little (or possibly less) fantasy relevance. He’s a 33-year-old center who is somehow shooting only 41%. He averages fewer than seven points and barely over four rebounds. Anybody still looking for the great white hype should closely follow the return of Mike Miller to a depleted Wizards roster. Any more normal person looking for a better option at center should consider Anderson Varejao and his 8 and 8 with a steal and a block. As long as you don’t mind Sideshow Bob-esque floppers with two last names.
Gilbert Arenas (80.1%)-He’s not coming back any time soon so I’ll keep it quick. Cut your losses right now or you’ll end up wasting a roster spot for the rest of the year. The Wizards have stripped all Arenas references in their ads and are looking to purge.
Shaquille O’Neal (54.4%)-Alas, another classic example of a player being retained due to name recognition. It’s sad when the league’s former most dominant player is best known for his expiring contract (or Shaq-spiring contract if we are doing the traditional name transformation the Big Diesel has made so famous). The big fella loves attention, but no longer deserves it. His 10.7 and 7.1 with 1.2 block are numbers that under-owned Kenyon Martin dwarfs, but unlike K-Mart, Shaq can destroy your team with a 51% free throw percentage. And what happens down the line when the season starts wearing on The Big Irishman? Cleveland needs size to stop Dwight Howard in the playoffs, so don’t be surprised to see Shaq take a few games off down the stretch. If anybody in your league hasn’t followed the NBA heavily over the last decade, Shaq is an excellent trade candidate. Otherwise, there are far better alternatives out there.
John Salmons (90.0%)-Salmons has already lost his starting spot to Kirk Hinrich, and I am sure the Bulls would love to shed the final season and a half of Salmons contract so they can be more competitive in this off-season’s free agent frenzy. The strange thing here is that I actually like John Salmons, but his poor production has been undeniable. With Ben Gordon gone, I imagined Salmons would reproduce the numbers from last year’s breakout campaign. Unfortunately after averaging 18, 4 and 2, Big Fish is down to 13, 3 and 2.5 on only 40% shooting. Those hoping a change of scenery could break Salmons off the schinde? Think again. Any playoff hopeful looking for a reasonably priced (five and a half million) defender with terrific versatility would surely give Salmons less than the 34 minutes he’s been logging with the Bulls. Quite simply, at 90% ownership, one has to expect either terrific production of tremendous upside. At 30 years old, Salmons is offering neither. If you own Salmons, I wouldn’t tell you to jump ship immediately. If a Wilson Chandler type is available however, (hopefully Wilson Chandler) you damned better click the drop button.
Other greatly owned players worthy of reassessing: Mario Chalmers (78.2%), Richard Jefferson (82.9%), Allen Iverson (93.8%). David Solar can be reached at David@hoopsdaily.com