Fantasy Daily: Rumblings and Grumblings

With the all-star game approaching and the trade deadline following shortly thereafter, the foundations of many NBA teams are about become unhinged. My expert opinion though, makes me believe that these changes are going to be drastic; I’m talking ten procedures in one day drastic. I’m talking Heidi Montag drastic. With so many teams looking to drop below the luxury tax threshold, juxtaposed with the fact that the legitimate title contender’s have widdled down to a small handful, teams will inevitably be put at a crossroads. Teams like New Orleans appear destined to be sellers alongside Philadelphia and Washington (amongst others). With a premium on cap relief and draft picks, the rich will be getting richer. It’s a good time to be a buyer. With their teams fearing that they will lose these players to free agency without compensation, already names like Amare Stoudemire and Chris Bosh have been mentioned as potential trades. Chicago is looking to shed payroll in order to make a real run at hometown wunder-kid Dwyane Wade. What does this mean? Anybody looking to add Kirk Hinrich can pretty much have him. With this much potential for player movement, the fantasy impact will be immense. So allow me to offer some insight before all this moving and shaking.

First, let me say I believe Amare Stoudemire WILL be traded. He has made it clear he plans to forego the last year of his contract (which he is due north of $17 million). While many of these rumors turn into nothing, it doesn’t make sense for Amare to stay in Phoenix. Actually after living in Arizona for a year, it doesn’t make sense for anybody to live there. Zing. But seriously, Amare must go. His team is struggling and teammates (including Grant Hill) have acknowledged chemistry issues. If he’s leaving in the off-season anyways, you better get some assets in exchange. Assuming everybody declines their player option, Phoenix is currently on the books for 41 million dollars worth of contracts. Nevertheless, in all likelihood, Grand Hill will pick up his option while Channing Frye declines his two million dollar deal after this breakthrough season. That leaves the team with just over 44 million dollars worth of contracts and a projected salary cap of just less than this year’s 57.7 million dollar figure. Expect a deal for expiring contracts and either a valuable young player or draft picks. If Cleveland makes a move they could offer Zydrunas Ilgauskas’ expiring contract, Jawad Williams and J.J. Hickson. This would save the team three million dollars this year and would only guarantee Hickson’s $1.5 million for next season. That money could be used to make a run at any of next season’s incredible free agent crop.

For those of you unaware of every ridiculous player that hits the market, allow a quick rundown. Players with restricted FA status are noted with an asterisk while player/team options are noted with ^. Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce^, Tyrus Thomas*, LeBron James, Shaquille O’Neal, Dirk Nowitski^, Carl Landry*, Luis Scola*, Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming^, Marcus Camby, Kobe Bryant^, Allen Iverson, Dwyane Wade, Al Harrington, David Lee, Nate Robinson, Travis Outlaw, Manu Ginobili, Chris Bosh^ and Carlos Boozer. While some players like Kobe Bryant make this list, they will not hit free agency. Regardless, it is still worth mentioning. No matter what, it is evident that with a shrinking salary cap and the deepest pool of free agents in NBA history, this off-season will be a carnival. It will be more chaotic than a dinner party with Robin Williams.  It will also be as entertaining. Teams have marked July 1st (first day of free agency) on their calendars and are waiting for the date as anxiously as a young child does for December 25. And they’ll be celebrating like Nintendo 64 kid if they land any of the crown jewels.

Now going back to STAT (which apparently also means Standing Tall And Talented rather than being a simple abbreviation of the last name), his value could fluctuate greatly depending on where he goes. If he lands in Golden State, he becomes a stud. His numbers of just fewer than 21 and 9 could balloon to 23 and 10 and his assists would also rise in such a free system. His minutes would jump from their current 34-mpg to near 40. On the other hand, if he lands in Cleveland it is a different story. While playing with LeBron is great for your career, it’s habitually true if you are a shooter. Amare is used to being top dog, and on most other teams he would be. Just not in the Cleve. The team itself would be nearly unstoppable (despite Amare’s defensive shortcomings.) Your fantasy team though? Best-case scenario is that Amare becomes the Gasol to LeBron’s Kobe. Unfortunately, Gasol gains his value from being efficient. Stoudemire would maintain a high field goal percentage but lacks the FT shooting and passing of Gasol. 19 and 8 seem like reasonable figures for any other player, but it would certainly be a drop off.

A player like Chris Bosh… you don’t want to see traded. Especially as his production is already more than you could have hoped for before the draft. 24, 11 and 2 make him fantasy best big man. He’s a stud whether he’s in Toronto or Dallas, but you want him to stay put for this season. It’s tough to imagine two players averaging better than 24 and 8 so hopefully a homecoming for Bosh is still a season away. Anywhere else though? I can’t imagine a noticeable drop-off.

Where this really gets interesting isn’t in regards to these superstars. They are going to put up numbers no matter where they go. But the role players? Their values could fluctuate more than Oprah’s weight has in the past two decades. If Nate Robinson or Kirk Hinrich landed on the Celtics, they could lose a ton of value. We’re sure to see starters on bad teams get dealt to contenders where they spend more time riding the pine than a dendrophiliac. Of course if you are an opportunist, this is the best time to strike. I love J.J. Hickson’s athleticism, but he is too raw to long big minutes in Cleveland. If he moves to another team, he is an excellent candidate for a second half break out, and an especially good addition to a team in a deep league. If Washington deals Caron Butler or Antawn Jamison? Well, the future may belong to Andray Blatche or Nick Young, making them nice speculative adds in deeper leagues.

Don’t even get me started on New Orleans. If David West leaves NO for Cleveland or any other rumored destination, his value takes a steep plunge. To pull a Troy Aikman-ism, playing with the best point guard in the NBA can really help one’s game. If West leaves, I would sell him as quickly as possible and than try to add whoever transplants him at the power forward slot.

Of course, we won’t know exactly who to pick up until these moves happen, but that shouldn’t stop you from keeping sharp. Staying on your toes. I know I will remain vigilant in following these trades and relaying their fantasy impact. A storm is coming, and you better be ready with an umbrella.