Finals Preview: Positional Breakdown
Even though the puppet show dream was not realized, I think we ended up with a better matchup of teams. With their long, athletic wings, the Magic were a nightmare for the Cavaliers, but the Lakers have the great versatility on defense to guard them. Let's break down the positional battles to see which team has the edge in this series:
Point Guard - Fisher/Farmar/Brown vs. Alston/Nelson/Johnson
The Lakers trot out three average guards at this position. Derek Fisher brings the leadership required to run a team, but his shot has not been there consistently during the playoffs. Jordan Farmar got some good minutes in last year's Finals, but thus far, he's not been able to take advantage of his experience and has gotten nothing but erratic playing time. His quickness probably makes him the best matchup for Rafer Alston, but he'll need to prove to Phil that he can knock down threes to stay on the floor. Last but not least, we have Shannon Brown. He's never played on a stage like this before, but he has the size, quickness, athleticism, and semi-reliable three-point shot to act as a sort of blend between Fisher and Farmar.
Jameer Nelson
The Magic have put a lot of faith in Alston so far, and he has delivered. He made some big shots in the Cleveland series and has adjusted to this offense (an offense that SVG has admitted is quite basic) very well. The hot news over the past couple of days is the return of Jameer Nelson. Nelson was key to the Magic's regular season sweep of the Lakers (27 and 28 points in two games), but he's been out with a torn labrum in his right shoulder since early February. All signs indicate that he will play, but I question the extent of his effectiveness. There is just no way he can be in "basketball shape" after missing all that time. The Magic have also been using veteran Anthony Johnson (the only player on the roster that's been to the Finals), but he's only been able to provide a hint of stability while on the court.
Advantage: Magic. Even though Nelson will be limited, the Lakers trio has been too inconsistent, and Rafer Alston (never thought I'd say this) seems poised to continue his recent hot streak.
Shooting Guard - Bryant/Vujacic vs. Lee/Pietrus
Well, the Lakers have the best SG on the planet. How the Magic attempt to contain him might be the crux of this series. Kobe is huge for the Lakers on both ends of the floor in this series; we all know what he can do with the ball, but he can also match up with Orlando's long wings on D if need be. Bryant's backup is Sasha Vujacic, a deceptive 6'7 who gets in the head of each player he defends.
Orlando will probably start rookie Courtney Lee on Kobe. Lee is quick and athletic, but if Bryant heats up, look for SVG to waste no time turning to Mickael Pietrus, a man who did a pretty good job on LeBron. Pietrus also gives us an interesting sub plot in this series: he's been wearing Kobe's sneakers but has switched to Jordan's in preparation for his Finals battle with Bryant.
Advantage: Lakers. Kobe Bryant's drive to win a title might be too much for the entire Magic roster, let alone simply Courtney Lee and Mickael Pietrus.
Small Forward - Ariza/Walton vs. Turkoglu
Trevor Ariza didn't see the floor when he was with the Magic but is playing significant minutes in LA because of his outstanding perimeter defense. He has the size, strength, and quickness to guard either Turk or Lewis. Anything LA gets from Trevor on the offensive end is a bonus, and so far, he's 30-60 from the three-point line in the playoffs. Luke Walton is a hybrid-forward that should be able to do a serviceable job on the Magic swingmen, and his skill set fits well win the Triangle.
Hedo Turkoglu has flourished in this Orlando offense. he has the ability to both stroke it from deep and get to the rim off the dribble. He is quietly becoming a star, but unlike most stars, he does not require any number of shots to heat up. Turk could be 0-7, but he'll take a big shot at the end of the game as if he were 6-7.
Advantage: Magic. Ariza and Walton are role player; Turkoglu is an All-Star caliber player.
Frontcourt - Gasol/Bynum/Odom vs. Howard/Lewis/Gortat
Lamar Odom
This is where things get interesting. Lamar Odom has the length and quickness to guard Rashard Lewis, but can Gasol or Bynum guard Dwight Howard one-on-one? If the Lakers have to double, it opens everything up for the Magic shooters licking their chops at the three-point line. If I'm Phil Jackson (and let the record show that I'm not), I make Dwight Howard beat me by himself.
I think another interesting question is how the Magic will match up with the Lakers if LA goes big. Howard can't guard both Bynum and Gasol. Whoever he doesn't guard will have a huge advantage on Rashard Lewis in the post. This is a problem the Magic didn't have to worry about in Cleveland because the Cavs had exactly zero low-post scoring threats.
Advantage: Push. Howard is the most dominant center in the game today, and Lewis is an All-Star, but LA has length like no other team in the League.
Coach - Jackson vs. Van Gundy
Advantage: Lakers. There's no doubt that SVG outcoached Coach of the Year Mike Brown in the Eastern Conference Finals, but Phil's nine rings speak for themselves.
Bonus Battle - Adam Morrison vs. JJ Redick
If this series goes to a Game 7 overtime, Morrison and Redick should get a chance to rekindle their NCAA rivalry and play one-on-one for the championship. Right now, the edge goes to JJ, hands down. He's got the better jumper, better hair, and has actually seen the floor in the playoffs (and actually played pretty well.)
Prediction
On paper, these teams are quite evenly matched, but I think the 2-3-2 format really helps the Lakers here. There is no way the Magic win all three games in Orlando. They are too young and inexperienced. Lakers in 6.
