The Free Agent Case of Joe Johnson

Greatest free agency class of all-time? At least that seems to be the consensus these days. With back-to-back MVP LeBron James and fellow superstars including Dwayne Wade, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh amongst others, I simply can’t argue. But what about the other players? Somehow, the NBA draft was transformed into the LeBron James show. Every move was analyzed as to how the King would be affected. Why ignore the rest of the free agent crop though? How about a little love for them? (Here “them” refers to many players; however, I am going to take this time to explore the plethora of potential possibilities for Joe Johnson.)  

At 29 years old, Johnson is slightly older than the rest his free agent peers; yet, he is coming off another successful season for his winning team. JJ’s line of 21.3 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.9 assists are quite impressive. Factor in his relatively minimal turnover numbers and good shooting touch from everywhere on the floor and you have a player that can really help a team. Do I think he is the type of guy one might build a championship team around? No. But ability to unselfishly create for himself and others makes him the perfect second fiddle on a contender.  In fact, just last year he led his young Atlanta Hawks team to a third place finish in the Eastern Conference (just ahead of my beloved Boston Celtics). I understand that he’s not as talented as LeBron or D-Wade, but must he be relegated to an afterthought? Nine teams have the money to offer a maximum contract, so for JJ there are plenty of options without even considering the possibility of a sign and trade. Joe Johnson

The first thing I want to do is separate the pretenders from the contenders. So goodbye Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Sacramento and Washington. Although all four teams have the money for Joe Johnson, they are all either rebuilding or have no need for a swingman like JJ. Keep in mind that this is all built on the assumption Johnson wants to leave Atlanta, the team who could in fact offer him the largest contract.

Option 1: Atlanta Hawks
This off-season is tearing me apart at the seams, and here is a perfect example. I love the idea of keeping the game pure. No massive contracts. No overpriced tickets. No free agency. It’s like the wise Ted Denslow once said, “Not allow teams to change cities or... players to be traded. And everybody will get paid the same! Just like when I was a kid, and players were treated like, like...indentured servants.” Then again, there’s that other side. You know the one I mean. That urge to step in the shoes of a General Manager, typically inspired by too many videogames and an unhealthy addiction to fantasy sports. That part of me always wants to see a brand new landscape.

In Johnson’s case, I am fine with him leaving. Atlanta is already his third team, so there’s no Michael Jordan playing for the Wizards type situation. The question for Johnson is simple. He will get a maximum offer from Atlanta in all likelihood, and it will be more than any other team can offer. Is it about the money? Is it about the fame? Is it about the opportunity to succeed on a personal level? Is it time for a change? While the Hawks have a far superior core than the Knicks could possibly hope for, can they win in the next five years? By the time Johnson’s contract expires, he will be either 34 or 35. This is the last major contract he will sign which makes this decision so important for him. While Atlanta has talented youngsters, they are missing several pieces from a championship level team. We’ve seen defenses win championships, and history has taught us it starts with the big men. While Josh Smith is a shot blocking beast, Al Horford is undersized for the position and the bench offers little help in the paint. Mike Bibby is well past his prime. If he were a cut of beef they would have tossed him years ago (and he’s only been on the team for two and a half years). Jamal Crawford is a one-dimensional scorer. Not exactly the type of player you want on the court at a crucial situation in a playoff game. It’s tough to pinpoint exactly what the Hawks need, because they have talent at every position, just not enough to win it all. They will stay competitive over the duration of JJ’s contract if they keep this core together, but is that enough? The Knicks have Eddy Curry’s contract coming off the books next year (just over $11 million!), so even after they spend $30 million this off-season, they might not be done re-tooling. I can’t speak to Joe’s personal life. I don’t know what he thinks about the city of Atlanta or the coaching staff. I don’t know how hard it would be to uproot his family. I do know though, that Johnson will be coveted this off-season and his head will be filled with promises. The promises he decides to believe will sway his decision.

Option 2: New York Knicks
Unfortunately I see the Knicks as the most likely landing spot for Johnson. They will put on a full court press in an attempt to entice LeBron to the bright lights of the big apple, but they stand to offer nothing else. If LeBron wants to win, this destination is quickly eliminated. However, the Knicks do have the room for two max contract players, and Joe Johnson is one helluva back-up plan. The idea of luring that second wave of talent to New York with big paydays and a large market seems likely. Moreover, both Amare Stoudemire and Joe Johnson played with Mike D’Antoni back in Phoenix and have nothing but great things to say about him. Amare enjoyed his best year as a pro in D’Antoni’s last season with the suns, while Joe Johnson got his first break during D’Antoni’s rookie campaign during the 2003-2004 campaign. These factors seem to point towards a reunion in Manhattan next season.  

While the Knicks have very little to advertise that’s related to basketball, they do have a few good young players under contract. What they lack is a point guard. For Johnson, the possibility of running the show in an up-tempo offense in what is supposedly the world’s most famous arena might be too much to pass up. The question is: can the Knicks convince Johnson they are capable of winning now? Johnson’s Atlanta Hawks team is young and improving every year. They have talent at every position on the floor and center Al Horford was quoted saying he didn’t believe Johnson would leave.  Is winning the most important thing to Johnson? Does a Knickerbockers line-up of Johnson, Tracy McGrady (?), Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and Amare Stoudemire (?) have a better chance of winning than the current ATL roster? That’s a big no from me, but ultimately that decision is up to JJ, who is in desperate need of a nickname other than his initials.  (I mean really, doesn’t every all-star caliber player deserve a nickname? We’ve gotten so lazy these days. We let Kobe nickname himself, Shaq has a new moniker every other night but Joe Johnson gets stuck with JJ? Chris Bosh is CB4? How about the Predator? It’s descriptive and intimidating. Deron Williams? Waaaaay too good to go sans-handle. Will the Thrill? Deronimooooo? DerWill be Blood. Give me something. Hell, start recycling nicknames if we need to. There can never be another Iceman or Refrigerator? Give it fifty years and re-start the process. Sorry, I digress.)


Option 3: Miami Heat
Beautiful women. Fabulous beaches. I think that Florida city may also have a professional basketball team too. Yes, Miami is a very inviting tourist destination, but what about a free agent one? With their buy-out of James Jones contract and the trade of Daequon Cook, the Heat have cut payroll and given themselves seemingly infinite possibilities. During the best off-season to have money, they have the most. In fact, they have enough to sign three maximum salary players. If we assume that Dwayne Wade re-signs, the question is, what happens with the rest of the money? A good GM would certainly prefer to spend it on two max contract superstars and fill in the rest with your mid-level exception and minimum salary players. So who are those two? With Dwayne Wade and Michael Beasley in place (assuming the Heat are no longer looking to shop him) the Heat need a small forward and a big man. Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire are the premier big men and will be courted by Heat brass. Rumors of Carlos Boozer to Miami have lingered for over a year. Even David Lee is a possibility. So if Miami does re-sign Wade and bring in an all-star big man, would they also come knocking on Johnson’s door? I can’t say for sure, but it does seem like an ideal situation.  

As I mentioned earlier, Johnson would be a perfect second fiddle. Imagine him as the third fiddle? Now that’s a band I would want to hear. A backcourt of Wade and Johnson would be a match made in heaven. Peanut butter and jelly. Taco night and toilet paper. Lamb and tuna fish (or perhaps you prefer spaghetti and meatballs)…Both have the skill to play and defend either guard spot. Both create off the bounce, but also have a great ability to find open teammates and spread the wealth. Johnson is a better shooter than Wade, and offers great versatility as he could play point, two guard, or small forward. Wade has a lightning quick first step in contrast to Johnson who never had the greatest first step. If Miami lands Wade, Johnson and Amare and Chicago lands LeBron and Bosh, the power scale tips in the favor of the east like a see-saw with Verne Troyer on one side and Rob Reiner on the other. This option hinges on Miami first re-signing Wade (which seems a given to me, but who knows?), and their ability to add a star big man (which also seems highly probable). The team would have little depth, but enough star power to compete this year, and possibly win a title in the not too distant future. If Johnson is dedicated to winning, this scenario is ideal. If he wants to be loyal or not take any risks, Atlanta is the favorite. If he wants familiarity, individual glory and spotlight, New York makes the most sense.Joe Johnson

Option 4: Dallas Mavericks
Per usual, Mark Cuban has stuck his nose into free agency despite his team being well over the cap. Perhaps Mikhail Prokhorov, the cool new young billionaire on the street, threatens him. Whatever the reason, I can guarantee two things:
1.    Cuban will blow the mid-level exception on Shaq not because it is a good move, but because he always had coveted the man of steel and at age 38, can finally land the Kazaam star.
2.    Dallas will dangle Rodrigue Beaubois, future draft picks and Erick Dampier’s expiring contract (or possibly the recently acquired Caron Butler), but I question whether that will make teams bite.

If Atlanta sees that losing Johnson is a foregone conclusion, is it worth the young players and expiring contract? Perhaps down the line you could flip Dampier’s contract for a player that can actually contribute. Clearly the Mavs, like every other team, covet LeBron. But LeBron’s not heading to Dallas; that much I can guarantee. So again, Joe Johnson is unfortunately turned into yet another consolation prize. Most informed NBA personnel assume Dirk’s return is imminent. This Dallas team has proven over and over again that they can be competitive in the West, but are still a piece of two away. For Dallas, a trade for Johnson would create quite the logjam at the guard and small forward slot. Between Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Caron Butler, Shawn Marion and Joe Johnson one former all-star would likely be squeezed. Kevin Garnett boasted “Anything is possible” so I won’t completely rule this out, but it seems unlikely that there are two JJ’s in Dallas come next year. (This brings me to a longstanding theory. Jose Juan Barea questionably stands 5’10 with shoes on. He looks like a guy you’d play a game of pick-up against, but not one you’d be afraid of. So that begs the question, is he the best NBA player to have in a pick-up game? If LeBron or Wade played, you would immediately fear them and recognize them. You’d step back and watch them throw down dunks until it was no longer a game, it was an exhibition. JJ Barea is a different case. Very few people know who he is, and fewer still know what he looks like. Nonetheless, this Northeastern Product averaged 8, 2 and 3 for a playoff team last season. He would come out of nowhere to dominate the competition, and when he left, nobody would be the wiser that they just lost to an NBA player. It’s genius!)

Option 5: The Rest (New Jersey Nets, LA Clippers)
I linked these two together because they are both very remote possibilities. New Jersey may have talent at point guard and center with Brook Lopez and Devin Harris, but except for their shore, Jersey has very little to offer. If Joe Johnson wants to team up with another superstar, he’d do it with a coaching staff he’s familiar with in New York, rather than the wanna-be’s in NJ. Hell ownership doesn’t even want to stay in the Garden State, why should perspective players?  
The Clippers are an interesting option as they have players in place at every spot on the floor except small forward. With B-Diddy, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman, a terrific core is in place. While Johnson seems like a great fit, the Clippers own track record could haunt them. It’s tough for a player to get excited about playing for a team that has never won anything since moving to LA. It’s even tougher to get excited for a team owned by Donald Sterling. While Johnson playing for LA’s other team seems like a nice fit, there are more suitable fits for JJ without accounting for a greedy and racist owner.

It’s tough to feel bad for a man who will shortly sign a contract worth many millions of dollars, yet I do feel a slight twinge. Johnson is the best player on a playoff team who has been a difficult out for the last three years. While Atlanta has only been his home for five seasons, he has seen his greatest success come in Turnerville, USA. He’s a versatile player who can shoot, pass and defend. Every team in the NBA could use a Joe Johnson yet he is clearly second, or possibly even third fiddle this off-season. Personally? I’d love to bring him back to Boston after seeing him erroneously shipped out of town for the large mound formerly known as Rodney Rodgers. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem like a real possibility. Instead I foresee the Knicks grabbing him and turning into a playoff team…just not a competitive one. Even if he stays with the Hawks, the power balance is about to shift and his days of being the star on a top 4 Eastern Conference team appear to be over. Nobody knows for sure what Johnson or any other free agents may do. We can judge what situation fits best, but we have no idea how they will gel with the coaches or management. I wish JJ nothing but success. He’s a team player, and whoever gets him will not regret it.