Implications of Off Season Player Movement for Fantasy Basketball
By David Solar
Sun, 07/18/2010 - 2:40pm
If you were skeptical when I told you that free agency consisted of players other than LeBron, I would completely understand. No questions asked. After all, I don't foresee Adam Morrison announcing his looming decision to Jim Gray on a prime time TV special...even if he does have two more rings than the King. In all reality, this high rate of player movement is LBJ inspired, even if he's not directly responsible. With teams spending years to create cap flexibility in an attempt to make a run at Bron Bron, any franchise not located in South Beach has been left terribly disappointed. After major free agents such as Rudy Gay and Joe Johnson opted to re-sign with their respected teams for max money, teams found themselves with a lot of cash available for players that simply didn't deserve it. We saw owners overbidding for players seemingly so they could sell their fans on a commitment to winning. Personally? I thought most of these moves were ridiculous. Nobody wins titles by giving Travis Outlaw $35 million over five years. Two Travis Outlaws certainly do not equal one LeBron James. Hell it doesn't equal one Joe Johnson.
Time to go back to my roots. From a fantasy point of view, this off-season is epic. We have seen a changing of the guard from LeBron to Kevin Durant. (Tangent time. I really hope David Stern tries to focus his marketing around this kid. While I've always believed it is unfair to expect athletes to be role models, Durant seems to embrace it. Contrast LeBron's self-indulgent “Decision” to Kevin Durant's excited tweet about his own new contract and it's night and day.) We also saw more elite players changing teams than at any point in history. Amongst last years top 50 fantasy performers we witnessed the following names change places: LeBron James, David Lee, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer and even Al Jefferson. This level of player movement not only affects the stars themselves, but it also impacts their new and former teammates. While Chris Bosh has seen his fantasy value drop from a top ten performer to third option on his own team, his former Toronto teammates see opportunities open, and thus their values skyrocket. Everybody from Andrea Bargnani to rookie Ed Davis becomes noteworthy. So now allow me to offer some early estimations on how player movement will affect draft value. It's time to analyze the new Miami Thrice. Let’s see how much it takes to devalue our favorite stars and explain which second tier stars will put up first tier numbers.
Chicago Bulls: Seemingly the best destination for LeBron and Bosh, Chicago fans may be disappointed with this off-season. But in these words of Larry David, “the Bulls still did pretty, pretty, pretty well for themselves”. The addition of a legitimate post scorer in Carlos Boozer should compliment the rebounding, defense and overall balls to the wall hustle of Joakim Noah. Toss in the outside shooting of Kyle “Ashton Kutcher” Korver and you've got a nice inside-out game. But how does this affect the player’s fantasy value? Boozer is coming off a season where he played alongside arguably the best point guard in the NBA (although I would still argue that distinction goes to CP3), and put up averages of 19.5, 11 and 3 on 56% shooting. It's tough for me to picutre those numbers changing drastically next year. Boozer will still be playing with a dynamic point guard in Derrick Rose and should be the first or second option on offense. My only question is how does this new contract affect his play? Boozer's backstabbing behavior in Cleveland shows me how much he might value the almighty dollar. Does he half-ass it his first season in Chicago or does set out to prove he deserved his payday? Boozer should still be a valuable fantasy performer but I could easily see his rebounding drop off with Noah starting alongside him. After years playing with Mehmet Okur who plays mainly on the perimeter, it will be interesting to see Boozer play with another big man who holds down the block.
Joakim Noah
Upcoming Projections:
Boozer: 19 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 2.5 apg, 55% fg.
Noah: 11 ppg, 10 rpg, 1.8 bpg
Rose: 22 ppg, 4 rpg, 7.5 apg
Miami Heat: I'll spare most of my thoughts on this situation as but now most people are tired of hearing about “The Decision.” I will say that LeBron seems to be quite unfairly villafied. He made a poor choice by announcing his decision in such an unnecessarily spectacular. In doing so, he disrespected Cleveland and their devoted fans. While I would have loved to see LeBron spend his entire career in the city he was raised, he was if anything, unselfish in taking money to play on a winning team. His ego apparently wasn't so humongous if he was willing to take a back seat to D-Wade in Miami. So without further ado, a Miami fantasy preview. With LeBron, Wade and Bosh all on one team, the sentiment has been how will they play with only one ball? Good players find ways to share the rock but unfortunately that should hurt all of their fantasy value. We took three top ten performers, and turned them into top thirty performers. Our best example is the 2008 Boston Celtics. Allow me to show you their numbers prior to the trades, and their numbers during that championship run
2006-2007 2007-2008
Ray Allen: 26.2, 4.5, 4.2 17.4, 3.7, 3.1
Kevin Garnett: 22.4, 12.8, 4.1 18.8, 9.2, 3.4
Paul Pierce: 25.0, 5.9, 4.1 19.6, 5.1, 4.5
As you can see, each of these superstars saw their statistics take a dramatic hit upon teaming up together. It should also be noted that both Pierce and Allen played just over half the season due to injuries and their statistics during the 2006-2007 season may not be truly representative. There are also a few other differences. The original big three were just past their prime and none of them played on a playoff team. The new Miami Thrice are all in their primes with Wade and LeBron leading their teams to fifth and first place in the east, respectively. As of now, these former leading men don’t have a fully developed supporting cast, although they have managed to address their lack of size with the signings of Juwan “the ageless wonder” Howard, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Udonis Haslem. With Mike Miller joining the fold, the Heat find themselves with plenty of talent and still only one ball. Allow me to do some projecting.
2009-2010
Chris Bosh: 24.0, 10.8, 2.4
LeBron James: 29.7, 7.3, 8.6
Dwyane Wade: 26.6, 4.8, 6.5
If we combined the scoring of these three, we would quickly have 80.3 points per game. Even if this team scored 100 points per game next year, that's only 20 per game for the rest of the team collectively. Seems unrealistic. In comparison, the top scoring “big three” from last season was Golden States triumvirate of Monta Ellis (25.5), Corey Maggette (19.8) and Stephen Curry (17.5). While these three are nowhere close to the level of James, Wade and Bosh, their 62.8 points per game came in a fast break offense that averaged 108.8 points per game. This offers an interesting benchmark. This Miami trio will clearly be the best in the league, and 70 points per game combined seems like an optimistic projection. It should also be noted that their assist numbers will come down as the combined 15.1 assists from Wade and James looks to be just out of reach. If we add whatever amount the actual point guard would grab (With Mario Chalmers at the helm, three and half to four per game sounds reasonable), it already gives them an unachievable figure. Rebounding is the one category where I believe there are figures from last season that are within reach.
2009-2010
Chris Bosh: 17.5, 10, 2.5
LeBron James: 25.5, 7.5, 7.0
Dwyane Wade: 23.0, 4.5, 5.0
Totals 66.0, 22.0, 14.5
Hopefully it is clear that despite a decline in scoring, each of these players remains an elite fantasy option. Bosh now fits that “Pau Gasol mold” albeit with less shot blocking. Wade and James remain first round picks, just not options for the top overall position in the draft (that honor goes to Durantula). Defenses will struggle to game plan for the Heat as all three of these players require double teams. The result will be higher quality shots than the men are used to along with an increased field goal percentage.
Cleveland Cavaliers:
A compelling story line is brewing in Cleveland, and of course it involves LeBron. With the Cavs losing their best (and arguably the league's best) player, there is opportunity to be had in the Cleve. Amid the King being exiled and no major roster moves to speak of (other than a rumored Shaq for Marvin Williams deal) there are thirty points per game ostensibly up for grabs. Who though, is the likely beneficiary of this opportunity? The obvious guess is Antawn Jamison who should improve on the 15.8 and 7.7 he averaged after his trade from the Wizards. This fourth overall pick in the 1998 draft has some mileage on his tires, but was averaging 20.5 and 8.8 with 1.4 threes prior to being dealt. Those numbers seem to be easily achievable in his new situation. The other 25 points? That's where this matter becomes intriguing. A long time J.J. Hickson fan, the 6'9 athletic specimen is entering his third season as a pro. While his 8.5 points and 4.5 rebounds don't jump off the page, there is more to the story. In 22 games as a starting center, Hickson averaged 11.4 points, 6.6 rebounds with .6 blocks and .6 steals in only 25 minutes. With Ilgauskas joining his buddy in Miami and Shaq all but gone, there is a tremendous opportunity for Hickson to have a break through season. He may lack a refined post game, but with his raw talents being developed and playing time abound, Hickson could be a terrific sleeper. If we stretch out Hickson's numbers and view his averages per 36 minutes (a likely playing time) we see figures of 14.7, 8.5 and nearly a block and steal per game. Factor in a 55% field goal percentage and Center eligibility and we have a potential fantasy stud. Still only 21, Hickson is definitely a project. However, if Cleveland decides to re-build, he could turn into an absolute steal. The alternative is far less attractive.
If the Cavs try to compete now and packages Hickson with their trade exception for a proven veteran, Anderson Varejao could become the more compelling option.
I've never been a fan of the sideshow Bob doppelganger, but his production has been undeniable. With 8.6 points and 7.6 boards in 28 minutes per game, Varejao has already seen a high level of ownership. With greater playing time, a Joakim Noah-esque stat line (minus the blocks) seems likely. At 27 years old, Varejao is entering his prime and could slip in drafts...mostly because it seems fellow owners share the same negative sentiment on floppy haired floppers.
As for Mo Williams? Expect his numbers to increase slightly. His last season with Milwaukee his stat line was a very impressive 17.2, 3.5 and 6.4. Add to that his two threes per game and you have a likely top fifty pick, as well as the best fantasy player on the Cavs roster. How about the potential Marvin Williams deal? Williams has been overshadowed in Atlanta with fellow swingmen Joe Johnson and Josh Smith in the fold, but given the opportunity the former number two overall pick could flourish. While his scoring has dropped each of the past two years, his 2007-2008 line of 14.8 and 5.7 with a steal per game show signs of promise. Still only 24 years old, Marvin could be in for a career year given a change of scenery...of course this is all based on rumors and hearsay. I predict a rocky season for the Cavs as they will struggle to even make the playoffs, but there is a window of opportunity. Let's see who takes advantage.
Phoenix Suns:
Barbosa and Amare are out. Childress and Turkoglu are in. With Phoenix's exciting run and gun style, there is always opportunity to be had. Amare is bringing his 20+ points and somewhat limited rebounding to New York, but with Steve Nash at the helm, it won't be overly arduous to find a replacement. If Hedo Turkoglu steps in at the four spot (and we know Phoenix loves the undersized four with guard skills...just look at Boris Diaw), he could regain fantasy momentum. After averaging 16.8, 5.3 and 4.9 in his last season with Orlando, he saw his figures plunge to 11.3, 4.6 and 4.1 in Toronto. Unhappy with his results, he requested his 4 year $40+ million contract be dealt. He couldn't have found a better situation than Phoenix. He will be able to exploit his guard skills against the slow Western conference big men such as Al Jefferson, Tim Duncan and Zach Randolph. And while Toronto had a fast paced, high-octane offense; nobody tops the Suns.
Turkoglu's declining production was based in part on his six fewer minutes per game and four fewer shots per game. His 37% clip from downtown shows he can still put it up. In fact, it helps quell any doubts I have about declining production (Turkoglu turned 31 back in March). Perhaps his days of 20, 5 and 5 are done, but 15, 6 and 4 seems a strong possibility. As for Josh Childress? I haven't seen him play in the two years since he left for Greece, but he was always a player with a unique skill set for his height (6'8) who should fit well in Phoenix. Whether he plays the two or the three, Childress should top the 11.8 and 4.9 he averaged during his last stint with Atlanta. What fascinates me most about Childress (other than his likely three position eligibility (SG, SF, PF) is his career 52% field goal percentage. You won't find a number that high from any other guard and at 27 years old, Childress should be in line for a career year. His competition for playing time consists of Grant Hill and Jared Dudley. Both men are quality players, but with “Over the” Hill celebrating his 38th birthday in October and Dudley lacking the athleticism and potential of Childress, Josh should earn quality minutes. 13, 6 and 3 on 50% shooting are totals that should satisfy most fantasy owners.
New York Knicks:
Amare Stoudemire
Okay New Yorkers, so you whiffed on LeBron...and Wade...and Joe Johnson. Chin up, there's a silver lining; at least you didn't overpay for JJ. At $100 mill over five years Amare isn't what I’d call ideal, but his enthusiasm should attract future free agents and bring quick results to the Big Apple. Per usual, Amare should be counted on for 24 points. Despite being 6'10 and athletic, we should expect just under ten rebounds a game.
What interests me about the Knicks this year? Their sign and trade involving David Lee. While Lee is a perfect fit for the Golden State offense, the Knickerbockers brought in some attractive pieces in this deal. I have been a big Anthony Randolph fan since watching him play as a rookie. Despite the fact that he often looks lost during games, he has managed to produce phenomenal numbers in limited minutes. Now as the likely starting power forward alongside Amare, AR4 could blossom into one of the fantasy elites. At only 21 years old, Randolph lacks a great (or even a decent) basketball IQ. However, at 6'11 he offers explosive athleticism, a wicked handle, a solid jump shot and great length. In the open court, there isn't a big man in the league who can stop him. Just load up youtube and watch him attack the hoop in transition. Better yet watch his block on his most often player comparison...Lamar Odom.
Last year in 33 games before getting hurt, Randolph averaged 11.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, .9 steals and 1.6 blocks in only 22 minutes per game. Say what you will, but a player producing like that deserves more court time. Don Nelson...you should be ashamed. Extrapolate those numbers over 36 minutes and we see the All-Star potential: 18.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 2.5 blocks. Add in an 80% free throw percentage and possible center eligibility and you have the makings of a top fifty player. Best yet? After being overhyped last year and having owners let down with his production, Randolph could drop out of the top 100 entirely! Jump on this man. Jump on him like you're a Jersey Shore cast member and he's a grenade. This German born freak of nature could see averages of 15-19 points, 8-10 rebounds, 2 blocks and a steal. But wait...there's more. If given the green light, Randolph can shoot the deep ball and could add some three pointers to his already impressive repertoire. The Knicks back-up big men include Eddy Curry and Ronny Turiaf, so it’s tough to imagine that Randolph won't be given every chance to prove himself. He's the perfect post-hype sleeper, and he's in a great position to help out your fantasy team. I just hope my fellow league member's don't find this entry.
Minnesota Timberwolves:
You can say one thing about T'Wolves’ GM David Kahn...he sure is making it easy to be a writer. Whether it be trading the centerpiece of the Kevin Garnett deal and franchise star Al Jefferson for essentially a trade exception or drafting three point guards one year and three small forwards the next, Kahn has made waves. The four year twenty million dollar contract he gave Darko Milicic has been questioned by many while at the same time, his trade for Michael Beasley looks like the first lopsided deal in his favor. His empire thus far has been significantly less successful than his namesake Genghis. So with their best player now residing in Salt Lake City (his starting job given to one of the biggest busts in NBA history), the question is simple: how will Minnesota fair this season? In a loaded west the answer is obvious; not too well. But when a star is dealt there is opportunity to be had.
Michael Beasley played second fiddle in Miami, but on a team where he is the most talented player, he could find himself in line for a breakthrough season. Ever since Beasley measured in at 6'7 without shoes I have been somewhat skeptical of his star potential. Even so, he did manage to average 14.8 and 6.4 in just under 30 minutes on a playoff team. Stretch those numbers per 36 minutes a game and you see averages of 17.9 and 7.7 with 1.2 steals and nearly a block. When your main competition for minutes comes from a player who has never averaged over 8 points per game in seven seasons, it seems a safe bet you'll stay on the court. Better yet, Super Cool Beas could log minutes at small forward if Kevin Love and Darko are used together. Add to the fact that Love is a great passing big man, and you have the recipe for fantasy stardom. I suspect Beasley and Love will both have exceptional seasons while young 'Cuse standouts Johnny Flynn and Wes Johnson prove to be valuable assets at the end of your bench. Projection time:
M. Beasley: 18, 8, 2
K. Love: 14, 12, 3
J. Flynn: 14, 2, 5
W. Johnson: 10, 5, 2
While there has been an abundance of player movement, there is still more to be done. I have yet to touch on the changes in Utah, Charlotte, and Toronto. Fear not. I shall return soon to analyze those situations and delve into all other free agent transactions. Tune in next week. Same hoops time. Same hoops channel.
Time to go back to my roots. From a fantasy point of view, this off-season is epic. We have seen a changing of the guard from LeBron to Kevin Durant. (Tangent time. I really hope David Stern tries to focus his marketing around this kid. While I've always believed it is unfair to expect athletes to be role models, Durant seems to embrace it. Contrast LeBron's self-indulgent “Decision” to Kevin Durant's excited tweet about his own new contract and it's night and day.) We also saw more elite players changing teams than at any point in history. Amongst last years top 50 fantasy performers we witnessed the following names change places: LeBron James, David Lee, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer and even Al Jefferson. This level of player movement not only affects the stars themselves, but it also impacts their new and former teammates. While Chris Bosh has seen his fantasy value drop from a top ten performer to third option on his own team, his former Toronto teammates see opportunities open, and thus their values skyrocket. Everybody from Andrea Bargnani to rookie Ed Davis becomes noteworthy. So now allow me to offer some early estimations on how player movement will affect draft value. It's time to analyze the new Miami Thrice. Let’s see how much it takes to devalue our favorite stars and explain which second tier stars will put up first tier numbers.
Chicago Bulls: Seemingly the best destination for LeBron and Bosh, Chicago fans may be disappointed with this off-season. But in these words of Larry David, “the Bulls still did pretty, pretty, pretty well for themselves”. The addition of a legitimate post scorer in Carlos Boozer should compliment the rebounding, defense and overall balls to the wall hustle of Joakim Noah. Toss in the outside shooting of Kyle “Ashton Kutcher” Korver and you've got a nice inside-out game. But how does this affect the player’s fantasy value? Boozer is coming off a season where he played alongside arguably the best point guard in the NBA (although I would still argue that distinction goes to CP3), and put up averages of 19.5, 11 and 3 on 56% shooting. It's tough for me to picutre those numbers changing drastically next year. Boozer will still be playing with a dynamic point guard in Derrick Rose and should be the first or second option on offense. My only question is how does this new contract affect his play? Boozer's backstabbing behavior in Cleveland shows me how much he might value the almighty dollar. Does he half-ass it his first season in Chicago or does set out to prove he deserved his payday? Boozer should still be a valuable fantasy performer but I could easily see his rebounding drop off with Noah starting alongside him. After years playing with Mehmet Okur who plays mainly on the perimeter, it will be interesting to see Boozer play with another big man who holds down the block.
Joakim Noah
Upcoming Projections:
Boozer: 19 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 2.5 apg, 55% fg.
Noah: 11 ppg, 10 rpg, 1.8 bpg
Rose: 22 ppg, 4 rpg, 7.5 apg
Miami Heat: I'll spare most of my thoughts on this situation as but now most people are tired of hearing about “The Decision.” I will say that LeBron seems to be quite unfairly villafied. He made a poor choice by announcing his decision in such an unnecessarily spectacular. In doing so, he disrespected Cleveland and their devoted fans. While I would have loved to see LeBron spend his entire career in the city he was raised, he was if anything, unselfish in taking money to play on a winning team. His ego apparently wasn't so humongous if he was willing to take a back seat to D-Wade in Miami. So without further ado, a Miami fantasy preview. With LeBron, Wade and Bosh all on one team, the sentiment has been how will they play with only one ball? Good players find ways to share the rock but unfortunately that should hurt all of their fantasy value. We took three top ten performers, and turned them into top thirty performers. Our best example is the 2008 Boston Celtics. Allow me to show you their numbers prior to the trades, and their numbers during that championship run
2006-2007 2007-2008
Ray Allen: 26.2, 4.5, 4.2 17.4, 3.7, 3.1
Kevin Garnett: 22.4, 12.8, 4.1 18.8, 9.2, 3.4
Paul Pierce: 25.0, 5.9, 4.1 19.6, 5.1, 4.5
As you can see, each of these superstars saw their statistics take a dramatic hit upon teaming up together. It should also be noted that both Pierce and Allen played just over half the season due to injuries and their statistics during the 2006-2007 season may not be truly representative. There are also a few other differences. The original big three were just past their prime and none of them played on a playoff team. The new Miami Thrice are all in their primes with Wade and LeBron leading their teams to fifth and first place in the east, respectively. As of now, these former leading men don’t have a fully developed supporting cast, although they have managed to address their lack of size with the signings of Juwan “the ageless wonder” Howard, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Udonis Haslem. With Mike Miller joining the fold, the Heat find themselves with plenty of talent and still only one ball. Allow me to do some projecting.
2009-2010
Chris Bosh: 24.0, 10.8, 2.4
LeBron James: 29.7, 7.3, 8.6
Dwyane Wade: 26.6, 4.8, 6.5
If we combined the scoring of these three, we would quickly have 80.3 points per game. Even if this team scored 100 points per game next year, that's only 20 per game for the rest of the team collectively. Seems unrealistic. In comparison, the top scoring “big three” from last season was Golden States triumvirate of Monta Ellis (25.5), Corey Maggette (19.8) and Stephen Curry (17.5). While these three are nowhere close to the level of James, Wade and Bosh, their 62.8 points per game came in a fast break offense that averaged 108.8 points per game. This offers an interesting benchmark. This Miami trio will clearly be the best in the league, and 70 points per game combined seems like an optimistic projection. It should also be noted that their assist numbers will come down as the combined 15.1 assists from Wade and James looks to be just out of reach. If we add whatever amount the actual point guard would grab (With Mario Chalmers at the helm, three and half to four per game sounds reasonable), it already gives them an unachievable figure. Rebounding is the one category where I believe there are figures from last season that are within reach.
2009-2010
Chris Bosh: 17.5, 10, 2.5
LeBron James: 25.5, 7.5, 7.0
Dwyane Wade: 23.0, 4.5, 5.0
Totals 66.0, 22.0, 14.5
Hopefully it is clear that despite a decline in scoring, each of these players remains an elite fantasy option. Bosh now fits that “Pau Gasol mold” albeit with less shot blocking. Wade and James remain first round picks, just not options for the top overall position in the draft (that honor goes to Durantula). Defenses will struggle to game plan for the Heat as all three of these players require double teams. The result will be higher quality shots than the men are used to along with an increased field goal percentage.
Cleveland Cavaliers:
A compelling story line is brewing in Cleveland, and of course it involves LeBron. With the Cavs losing their best (and arguably the league's best) player, there is opportunity to be had in the Cleve. Amid the King being exiled and no major roster moves to speak of (other than a rumored Shaq for Marvin Williams deal) there are thirty points per game ostensibly up for grabs. Who though, is the likely beneficiary of this opportunity? The obvious guess is Antawn Jamison who should improve on the 15.8 and 7.7 he averaged after his trade from the Wizards. This fourth overall pick in the 1998 draft has some mileage on his tires, but was averaging 20.5 and 8.8 with 1.4 threes prior to being dealt. Those numbers seem to be easily achievable in his new situation. The other 25 points? That's where this matter becomes intriguing. A long time J.J. Hickson fan, the 6'9 athletic specimen is entering his third season as a pro. While his 8.5 points and 4.5 rebounds don't jump off the page, there is more to the story. In 22 games as a starting center, Hickson averaged 11.4 points, 6.6 rebounds with .6 blocks and .6 steals in only 25 minutes. With Ilgauskas joining his buddy in Miami and Shaq all but gone, there is a tremendous opportunity for Hickson to have a break through season. He may lack a refined post game, but with his raw talents being developed and playing time abound, Hickson could be a terrific sleeper. If we stretch out Hickson's numbers and view his averages per 36 minutes (a likely playing time) we see figures of 14.7, 8.5 and nearly a block and steal per game. Factor in a 55% field goal percentage and Center eligibility and we have a potential fantasy stud. Still only 21, Hickson is definitely a project. However, if Cleveland decides to re-build, he could turn into an absolute steal. The alternative is far less attractive.
If the Cavs try to compete now and packages Hickson with their trade exception for a proven veteran, Anderson Varejao could become the more compelling option.
I've never been a fan of the sideshow Bob doppelganger, but his production has been undeniable. With 8.6 points and 7.6 boards in 28 minutes per game, Varejao has already seen a high level of ownership. With greater playing time, a Joakim Noah-esque stat line (minus the blocks) seems likely. At 27 years old, Varejao is entering his prime and could slip in drafts...mostly because it seems fellow owners share the same negative sentiment on floppy haired floppers.
As for Mo Williams? Expect his numbers to increase slightly. His last season with Milwaukee his stat line was a very impressive 17.2, 3.5 and 6.4. Add to that his two threes per game and you have a likely top fifty pick, as well as the best fantasy player on the Cavs roster. How about the potential Marvin Williams deal? Williams has been overshadowed in Atlanta with fellow swingmen Joe Johnson and Josh Smith in the fold, but given the opportunity the former number two overall pick could flourish. While his scoring has dropped each of the past two years, his 2007-2008 line of 14.8 and 5.7 with a steal per game show signs of promise. Still only 24 years old, Marvin could be in for a career year given a change of scenery...of course this is all based on rumors and hearsay. I predict a rocky season for the Cavs as they will struggle to even make the playoffs, but there is a window of opportunity. Let's see who takes advantage.
Phoenix Suns:
Barbosa and Amare are out. Childress and Turkoglu are in. With Phoenix's exciting run and gun style, there is always opportunity to be had. Amare is bringing his 20+ points and somewhat limited rebounding to New York, but with Steve Nash at the helm, it won't be overly arduous to find a replacement. If Hedo Turkoglu steps in at the four spot (and we know Phoenix loves the undersized four with guard skills...just look at Boris Diaw), he could regain fantasy momentum. After averaging 16.8, 5.3 and 4.9 in his last season with Orlando, he saw his figures plunge to 11.3, 4.6 and 4.1 in Toronto. Unhappy with his results, he requested his 4 year $40+ million contract be dealt. He couldn't have found a better situation than Phoenix. He will be able to exploit his guard skills against the slow Western conference big men such as Al Jefferson, Tim Duncan and Zach Randolph. And while Toronto had a fast paced, high-octane offense; nobody tops the Suns.
Turkoglu's declining production was based in part on his six fewer minutes per game and four fewer shots per game. His 37% clip from downtown shows he can still put it up. In fact, it helps quell any doubts I have about declining production (Turkoglu turned 31 back in March). Perhaps his days of 20, 5 and 5 are done, but 15, 6 and 4 seems a strong possibility. As for Josh Childress? I haven't seen him play in the two years since he left for Greece, but he was always a player with a unique skill set for his height (6'8) who should fit well in Phoenix. Whether he plays the two or the three, Childress should top the 11.8 and 4.9 he averaged during his last stint with Atlanta. What fascinates me most about Childress (other than his likely three position eligibility (SG, SF, PF) is his career 52% field goal percentage. You won't find a number that high from any other guard and at 27 years old, Childress should be in line for a career year. His competition for playing time consists of Grant Hill and Jared Dudley. Both men are quality players, but with “Over the” Hill celebrating his 38th birthday in October and Dudley lacking the athleticism and potential of Childress, Josh should earn quality minutes. 13, 6 and 3 on 50% shooting are totals that should satisfy most fantasy owners.
New York Knicks:
Amare Stoudemire
Okay New Yorkers, so you whiffed on LeBron...and Wade...and Joe Johnson. Chin up, there's a silver lining; at least you didn't overpay for JJ. At $100 mill over five years Amare isn't what I’d call ideal, but his enthusiasm should attract future free agents and bring quick results to the Big Apple. Per usual, Amare should be counted on for 24 points. Despite being 6'10 and athletic, we should expect just under ten rebounds a game.
What interests me about the Knicks this year? Their sign and trade involving David Lee. While Lee is a perfect fit for the Golden State offense, the Knickerbockers brought in some attractive pieces in this deal. I have been a big Anthony Randolph fan since watching him play as a rookie. Despite the fact that he often looks lost during games, he has managed to produce phenomenal numbers in limited minutes. Now as the likely starting power forward alongside Amare, AR4 could blossom into one of the fantasy elites. At only 21 years old, Randolph lacks a great (or even a decent) basketball IQ. However, at 6'11 he offers explosive athleticism, a wicked handle, a solid jump shot and great length. In the open court, there isn't a big man in the league who can stop him. Just load up youtube and watch him attack the hoop in transition. Better yet watch his block on his most often player comparison...Lamar Odom.
Last year in 33 games before getting hurt, Randolph averaged 11.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, .9 steals and 1.6 blocks in only 22 minutes per game. Say what you will, but a player producing like that deserves more court time. Don Nelson...you should be ashamed. Extrapolate those numbers over 36 minutes and we see the All-Star potential: 18.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 2.5 blocks. Add in an 80% free throw percentage and possible center eligibility and you have the makings of a top fifty player. Best yet? After being overhyped last year and having owners let down with his production, Randolph could drop out of the top 100 entirely! Jump on this man. Jump on him like you're a Jersey Shore cast member and he's a grenade. This German born freak of nature could see averages of 15-19 points, 8-10 rebounds, 2 blocks and a steal. But wait...there's more. If given the green light, Randolph can shoot the deep ball and could add some three pointers to his already impressive repertoire. The Knicks back-up big men include Eddy Curry and Ronny Turiaf, so it’s tough to imagine that Randolph won't be given every chance to prove himself. He's the perfect post-hype sleeper, and he's in a great position to help out your fantasy team. I just hope my fellow league member's don't find this entry.
Minnesota Timberwolves:
You can say one thing about T'Wolves’ GM David Kahn...he sure is making it easy to be a writer. Whether it be trading the centerpiece of the Kevin Garnett deal and franchise star Al Jefferson for essentially a trade exception or drafting three point guards one year and three small forwards the next, Kahn has made waves. The four year twenty million dollar contract he gave Darko Milicic has been questioned by many while at the same time, his trade for Michael Beasley looks like the first lopsided deal in his favor. His empire thus far has been significantly less successful than his namesake Genghis. So with their best player now residing in Salt Lake City (his starting job given to one of the biggest busts in NBA history), the question is simple: how will Minnesota fair this season? In a loaded west the answer is obvious; not too well. But when a star is dealt there is opportunity to be had.
Michael Beasley played second fiddle in Miami, but on a team where he is the most talented player, he could find himself in line for a breakthrough season. Ever since Beasley measured in at 6'7 without shoes I have been somewhat skeptical of his star potential. Even so, he did manage to average 14.8 and 6.4 in just under 30 minutes on a playoff team. Stretch those numbers per 36 minutes a game and you see averages of 17.9 and 7.7 with 1.2 steals and nearly a block. When your main competition for minutes comes from a player who has never averaged over 8 points per game in seven seasons, it seems a safe bet you'll stay on the court. Better yet, Super Cool Beas could log minutes at small forward if Kevin Love and Darko are used together. Add to the fact that Love is a great passing big man, and you have the recipe for fantasy stardom. I suspect Beasley and Love will both have exceptional seasons while young 'Cuse standouts Johnny Flynn and Wes Johnson prove to be valuable assets at the end of your bench. Projection time:
M. Beasley: 18, 8, 2
K. Love: 14, 12, 3
J. Flynn: 14, 2, 5
W. Johnson: 10, 5, 2
While there has been an abundance of player movement, there is still more to be done. I have yet to touch on the changes in Utah, Charlotte, and Toronto. Fear not. I shall return soon to analyze those situations and delve into all other free agent transactions. Tune in next week. Same hoops time. Same hoops channel.
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