Lakers - Hornets 1st Round Playoff Preview
By Brendan McKay
Lakers Overview:
The two times defending NBA Champions have had an up and down season, with plenty of story lines on and off the court. The last few weeks of the season included a five game losing streak that was preceded by a nine straight victories. They did end the season with two wins in a row, so all appears to be well in Laker Land. Despite the inconsistency, they finished the season 2nd in the West, behind a Spurs team that appears to have run out of gas.
Kobe Bryant
This year, Kobe Bryant added another status quo season to his brilliant career. Despite a five minute drop in minutes per game, he averaged 25/5/5. Of course, as of late, this has not been without controversy. During a whooping of the Spurs, Bryant earned himself a league record $100,000 fine by uttering some not so nice words in the direction referee Bennie Adams. If you're curious what he said, Google away. The fine and ensuing outcry didn't seem to have much impact on Kobe as the very next night he put up 36 (including a game tying three to send it to OT) during a surprisingly close game with the Kings.
Pau Gasol registered yet another All Star season, making fantasy owners around the nation happy by playing all 82 games and averaging 19 points, 10 rebounds and a block and a half. He continues to be one of the most effective true low post players in the league, every year adding another post move fas he continues to keep defenses guessing, and typically guessing wrong. There are few seven-footers as effective as him, and he is a mismatch against almost every team in the NBA.
The only disappointing development (or lack thereof) for the Lakers this year, has been the limited contribution of the two role players they signed in the off season, Steve Blake and Matt Barnes. Many thought Blake might supplant Derek Fisher as the starting point guard by the end of the season, but it simply didn't happen. He is also expected to miss game one of the first round, and the Lakers are going to miss his defense against Mr. Chris Paul. While Barnes's production hasn't been far off his career average, his 2010-2011 campaign has been filled with injuries, playing in only 53 of 82 games. He could quickly show his value by making his length and shooting a factor in the post season.
Despite a few hiccups along the way, the Lakers enter the playoffs as huge favorites to win the West, and slight leaders in the Championship market in Vegas. Despite having a down swing towards the end of the season, by this point the Lakers have proven that they can turn it on when it matters. And if you think anyone in the league is more determined to win it all than their star, Kobe Bryant, think again. Not only will a championship this year put the first ring on his left hand, putting his name next to Michael's, but also further prove that Jerry West was right in keeping Bryant instead of Shaq.
Hornets Overview:
After starting the season on an absolute tear by ripping off eight straight Ws, the Hornets sputtered and spattered their way to a 7th place finish in the West. Possibly more telling than the second worse record among Western Conference playoff teams is their 20-23 record vs other postseason teams, also good for 7th best in the left coast. In fairness, they've had some injuries to deal with, but this is what happens with your 2nd and 3rd best players are David West and Emeka Okafor.
Paull and Green
One player that (surprisingly) turned in a healthy season is Hornets Captain and regular contestant in the “Best Point Guard in the NBA” argument, Chris Paul. Despite off season trade demands, and constant speculation concerning his two-year-removed free agency Paul handed in another stellar season with 16 points, 10 assists and two and a half steals a game. There is little to say about Paul that has not already been said. For years he has been one of the best players the NBA has to offer, and this year has done nothing to change that.
As foreshadowed earlier, the biggest issue the Hornets have going into the playoffs is injuries, and more specifically injury. After a borderline All Star season, David West is spending the days leading up to the playoffs planning surgery and recovery instead of plane flights and how to use his friends and family ticket allotment. He is the only player on the Hornets that resembles anything close to a low post threat, and there isn't a player short of Chris Paul they could afford to lose less.
Chris Paul either lied to himself or to the rest of the world when he said he is more concerned with the Hornets Championship chances than his 2012 free agency. After all, let's be honest, the Hornets don't have Championship chances. Even if by some miraculous happening they manage to make it to the second round, there are few teams (even in the East) that have less talent or experience than New Orleans. Hornet's management has spent the last two seasons overpaying mid-level talent in a poorly constructed attempt to keep Paul happy, and they have been rewarded with the worst place to be in the NBA - in the playoffs with no chance of winning anything relevant.
Match Up Analysis :
Well, this won't take long. Let's start by taking a look at the expected positional match ups :
Lakers Hornets
Point Guard
Derek Fisher Chris Paul
Shooting Guard
Kobe Bryant Marco Belinelli
Small Forward
Ron Artest Trevor Ariza
Power Forward
Pau Gasol Carl Landry
Center
Andrew Bynum Emeka Okafor
6th Man
Yes, the Hornets have an advantage at one position, and the Lakers get the edge in the rest. Edge isn't even a good word to use, as outside of the Artest/Ariza match up, the rest of the positions aren't even close. If that wasn't enough, the Hornets are even more outmatched on the bench, as Monty Williams will being going brain to brain with Phil Jackson.
Prediction: Just like the regular season, expect a 4-0 sweep by the Lakers in what expects to be the most one sided series in the first round of the playoffs. Caveat: This is assuming that Bynum can turn in a healthy first round. If he catches the injury bug as he often does, expect nothing to change, as the Lakers move Gasol to Center, and Odom to the opening tip off, and the Lakers still have the advantage at all but one position.
Thanks again for reading. Follow me on Twitter @bmckay.com. Later.
Schedule:
Game 1: 12:30 p.m. Pacific time Sunday, Staples Center, ABC telecast
Game 2: 7:30 p.m. Pacific time Wed., Apr. 20, Staples Center, TNT
Game 3: 6:30 p.m. Pacific time Fri., Apr. 22, New Orleans Arena, ESPN
Game 4: 6:30 p.m. Pacific time Sun., Apr. 24, New Orleans Arena, TNT
Game 5 (if necessary): Tues., Apr. 26, Staples Center, TBD
Game 6 (if necessary): Thurs., Apr. 28, New Orleans Arena, TBD
Game 7 (if necessary): Sat., Apr. 30, Staples Center, TNT
