Mike Conley's Extension Looks Better Every Day

It was a shock in November when the Memphis Grizzlies signed the starting point guard Mike Conley to an extension of his rookie scale contract on the extension deadline day. Given his average play until that point, an extension was not expected.

It was an even bigger shock when the value of the extension became clear; five years, $40 million, with possible incentives (totaling $1 million per annum) on top of that.

But since being paid, Conley’s play has spoken up for him.

With only rare exceptions, the players who are better than Conley get paid more than him, and the players worse than Conley get less. And there are some worse players getting more.

An initial look at Conley’s numbers does not instantly suggest an $8 million per year player. In 35.8 minutes a game this season, Conley returns 13.6 points (84th in the league), 6.7 assists (17th) and 1.7 steals per game (10th), shooting 45 percent from the field, 36 percent from 3-point range, and 73 percent from the foul line. His 15.6 PER ranks 108th, and his .525 true shooting percentage is 222nd. Conley’s 2.9:1 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 12th in the league, but that’s his most complimentary stat.

However, the value of Conley’s extension lies not only in what he has done thus far, but what he will go on to do.

Since being drafted fourth over all in 2007, Conley has improved all facets of his game. He has improved into a reliable jump shooter, become a strong transition player, developed his floater, greatly improved his decision making, and has become a solid defender of his position. Conley was drafted for his size, athleticism, dynamic play and his upside, and Memphis has trusted in him. They have allowed him to learn the point guard position on the job, trusting him in key situations, fully accepting of the accompanying growing pains. Albeit not without a hitch or two along the way, Conley has taken to the task admirably, and shown considerable growth as a player in the first half of this season.

At 23, Conley is already a top 15 to 20 point guard in the N.B.A., who has improved notably since the extension was signed. Comfortably the best guard option on his team, Conley has been a stabilizing force on an inconsistent Memphis team, guiding them to a 29-26 record (including 10 wins in their last 13), and a very real chance at a playoff spot. He may excel at no one facet of the game – other than perhaps his jump shot, which he could certainly be more aggressive with – yet he also has few weaknesses.

There is, of course, more for Conley to do. Among other things, he must improve his man-to-man defense, further improve his decision-making, and start driving left more, all nuances of being an N.B.A. point guard that can develop with experience. Yet, Conley has done enough to provoke a re-evaulation of his extension. And this time it looks favorable.

More important, in the aforementioned context of his point guard peers, his value for money stands up. They can’t all be overpaid.

Conley, clearly, resides on the outside of the very elite. But he resides firmly within the next tier down, alongside peers like Jose Calderon, D. J. Augustin, Andre Miller, Beno Udrih, Jameer Nelson and others. The point guard position is not only top heavy, but enjoys strength in depth: players like Kirk Hinrich and Ty Lawson are mere backups. It is therefore a weighty compliment to proclaim Conley in the middle of the pack of starters at what is currently the league’s best position.

And he is paid accordingly.