NBA Southeast Division Off-Season Grades

By Mike Misek

Atlanta Hawks:

Draft Picks: Jordan Crawford, Pape Sy
Additions: Josh Powell (Lakers)
Subtractions: Randolph Morris, Jason Collins, Mario West, Joe Smith

The six years and $119 million given to Joe Johnson has been widely panned and regarded as the worst contract of the summer. It ignores several truths about the situation. First, Joe Johnson had a five year max deal from Chicago and New York in his pocket. Atlanta did not bid against themselves to keep him. Second, Johnson’s deal is only crippling for Atlanta if he gets hurt. While it is difficult to predict whether a player will age well in the NBA, it is important to point out that no other 20 point scorer in the NBA takes so few free throws. Johnson is not a player who draws a lot of fouls and takes a lot of contact. Such a style should allow him to age more gracefully than many of the other shooting guards when they have played into their 30s. Third, the Hawks had no fall back plan if Johnson left. The team is already saddled with the bad contracts of Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams, and Zaza Pachulia. If Johnson left, those three would still be overpaid. The team would just not be any good. It was a bad situation for Atlanta, but a team is better off overpaying someone who makes the team better than someone who is just a guy. If they let Johnson leave, there was going to be a fall out likely similar to what happened to the Warriors when Baron Davis left. It would have been a statement to the players that Hawks management was not interested in being competitive. How would that decision impact the mindset and approach of Josh Smith and Jamal Crawford? Would it make it more difficult to extend Al Horford next summer? How does it impact season ticket sales? Atlanta is not a town that supports a loser, so the team would not only have the deal with the players being impacted but there would also be the added detriment of the city being a three game losing streak away from disowning the team. Unless something crazy happens to the Hawks, like Jordan Crawford turning into a superstar, the team is not going to win a title. They have too many bad contracts and have not drafted well enough, but they will be relevant. For an organization that was largely irrelevant for most of the 2000s, being the third or fourth best team in the East for the foreseeable future is not the worst possible outcome. It was probably impossible for the Hawks to have a good summer given decisions of the past and the cards they were dealt, but they avoided disaster.

The coaching change to Larry Drew should signal an end of isolation only offense in Atlanta. Johnson and both Jordan and Jamal Crawford are good isolation players, so it still figures to be an important part of what they do, but having a functional offensive system should allow them to more consistently incorporate Al Horford into the offense. Drew might also be given the monumental task of coaching Shaquille O’Neal as the Hawks are widely considered to be the favorites to land the 38-year old. O’Neal still gets graded against what he was, but what he still is can be useful. He is still the biggest man in the league whose physical presence is still respected by players, but handling his ego can make or break a coach.

Final Grade: C

Charlotte Bobcats:

Draft Picks: None
Additions: Matt Carroll (Mavericks), Eric Dampier (Mavericks), Shaun Livingston (Wizards, 2 years and $7 million), Eduardo Najera (Mavericks),
Subtractions: Alexis Ajinca (Mavericks), Tyson Chandler (Mavericks), Raymond Felton (Knicks), Stephen Graham, Larry Hughes, Theo Ratliff

Much like Atlanta, it was impossible for Charlotte to have a good summer. They entered the off-season without a draft pick, a payroll nearing the projected luxury tax threshold, and had two young players from their rotation hitting free agency. The best the team could hope for was to stay where they were in the Eastern Conference pecking order.  The team appears to have accomplished that goal.

While Michael Jordan has taken his fair share of criticism as a team president, he has learned one important thing. If Larry Brown is the head coach, keep Larry happy by getting him the players he wants. Brown can take a fifteen man roster and find seven or eight players who he feels he can get the most from. The key is to keep turning over the other seven so he does not drive himself crazier than he already is. Raymond Felton was a solid but unspectacular point guard during his five years in Charlotte. It has been clear in his comments since joining the Knicks that Felton felt constrained playing in Brown’s system and called their relationship “bittersweet.” While Shaun Livingston is not as fast or quick as he was prior to his knee injuries, he is still the kind of savvy, pass-first point guard with the same kind of molding that endeared Brown to Mark Jackson and Eric Snow. He will split the point minutes with D.J. Augustin, and with Livingston being 6’7” can also play alongside one another. Tyson Chandler is not a player without accolades or promise, but he had both health issues and Larry Brown issues in Charlotte. Brown was prone to playing Theo Ratliff and Nazr Mohammed more than Chandler. A team like Charlotte cannot afford to have a $12 million player giving as few minutes as Chandler was sometimes receiving. While the return of Dampier (whose option will be declined, though could re-sign for less), Carroll, and Najera is not great, it created payroll flexibility. They also pulled out a proposed deal with Toronto that would have returned to them a player in Jose Calderon who Brown was not particularly high on. The team also locked up the Larry Brown fascination that is Tyrus Thomas. With the resume Brown has as a coach, a team can do much worse than try to keep him happy by filling the roster with players he wants and can do what he asks of them.

Final Grade: C+
Dwyane Wade and Lebron James
Miami Heat:

Draft Picks: Dexter Pittman, Jarvis Varnado, and D’Sean Butler
Additions: Chris Bosh (Raptors, 6 years and $109 million), Juwan Howard (Trail Blazers, 1 year and $1.4 million), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (Cavaliers, 2 years and $2.8 million), LeBron James (Cavaliers, 6 years and $109 million), Mike Miller (Wizards, 5 years and $25 million)
Subtractions: Rafer Alston, Michael Beasley (Timberwolves), Daequan Cook (Thunder), Yakhouba Diawara,  Jermaine O’Neal (Celtics), Shavlik Randolph, Quentin Richardson (Magic), and Dorell Wright (Warriors)

How can the Heat not only have the best offseason in the league when they probably had the best off-season in the history of off-seasons. Roman Abramovich bought half of Portugal and acquired Didier Drogba in one off-season while running Chelsea, but he has never come away with the LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh of the pitch. FC Barcelona has outspent the National GDP of Spain, and they didn’t corner the market like this. The Lakers brought in Karl Malone and Gary Payton to join Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant when they were in their prime, but they were old. Pat Riley got three stars in their mid-twenties, and got them to take less money.

Now, could a person reasonably think less of LeBron James for making the decision he did? Yes. Does this offseason allow for a revisionist history of what he has and has not accomplished over the past seven years? No doubt about it. Can a person question the toughness and competitive nature of James? Most definitely. Is it fair to point out that Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson were driven to their greatness by their fear and hatred of losing while it was LeBron James’ fear and hatred of losing that drove him to abandon Cleveland for Miami? Absolutely. Are there similarities between the 2010-11 Heat and the 2003-04 Lakers? This cannot be denied. Weren’t LeBron, Wade, and Bosh on the team that lost to Greece in 2006 and needed Kobe Bryant to save them from Spain in the final quarter of the 2008 Olympics? Shhhhh. Are they assured of winning the title this year? No, but none of this matters. The Heat are getting ready for 100 night tour where they are going to be Tupac opening for the Beatles with Jimmy Hendrix on guitar. This team could fill 100,000 seat arenas every night, and by 2011-12 they probably will be playing in a football dome in every NBA city that has one. Las Vegas might build a dome just so this team can play there twice a year. Pat Riley turned in Rafer Alston, Michael Beasley, Jermaine O’Neal, Daequan Cook, Dorell Wright, and Quentin Richardson into LeBron James, Mike Miller, Chris Bosh, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard, and any other ring chasing veteran they want. Everyone took less money than they could have gotten elsewhere to play for this team. They are going to be together for five years, at which time James will be all of 30 years old. This team has the ability to challenge 72-10 and will probably be the favorites to win a title for the next five years. You can hate them, but you cannot deny them.

Final Grade: A+

Orlando Magic:

Draft Picks: Daniel Orton and Stanley Robinson
Additions: Quentin Richardson (Magic 3 years and $7.5 million), Chris Duhon (4 years $15 million)
Subtractions: Matt Barnes, Adonal Foyle, Anthony Johnson, and Jason Williams

It is difficult to find much good in an off-season where the Magic committed to match an offer sheet on their backup shooting guard that would have them pay more in salary and luxury tax this season than Miami will for Dwyane Wade. Well, that is what Orlando decided to do with J.J. Redick. It speaks volumes that the last NBA player who got the best shape of their career prior to a contract season and had a celebrated role playing series in a losing effort to Boston was Sasha Vujacic. Now, Orlando has one player on their roster who is not overpaid. Dwight Howard is worth every penny he makes, and it is possible that an argument can be made on the behalf of Ryan Anderson earns in rookie scale salary. Quentin Richardson is not overpaid in salary, but three years for a 30-year old with a history of back problems can be a bit much. They needed someone to replace Matt Barnes, and if he stays healthy should be able to do so. The rest of that $90 million payroll for this season is full of bloated excess. Chris Duhon is more expensive, but not necessarily significantly better than either Jason Wiliams or Anthony Johnson. Daniel Orton came off a freshman season where he barely played to a horrible summer league debut. No other drafted player shot worse than Orton’s 15 percent from the floor, and only Derrick Favors picked up more fouls per minute played. Until he gains any sort of polish to his game, he is getting $1 million to be the second coming of Chris Richard.

The Magic can survive, however, because Dwight Howard is a top five talent. His incredible ability to close off the lane to opposing teams makes the Magic the most likely team to beat the Heat in the East. If overpaying Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, J.J. Redick, Chris Duhon, Marcin Gortat, and Brandon Bass means Orlando has a chance of having enough offensive weapons to match the Heat, then I should probably just be happy I am not writing the check when the luxury tax bill arrives. The team should be just as good as they were last year, just more expensive.

Final Grade: C +

Washington Wizards:

Draft Picks: John Wall, Kevin Seraphin, Trevor Booker, and Hamady NdiayeJohn Wall
Additions: Hilton Armstrong (Rockets, 1 year and $900K), Kirk Hinrich (Bulls), and Yi Jianlian (Nets)
Subtractions: Earl Boykins, Javaris Crittenton, Randy Foye (Clippers), Josh Howard, Cedric Jackson, Shaun Livingston (Bobcats), Cartier Martin, Mike Miller (Heat), Fabricio Oberto, Quinton Ross (Nets), James Singleton,

Winning the lottery when a talent like John Wall is in the draft can make even the bleakest of situations seem tenable. The Wizards still owe Gilbert Arenas $80 million over the next four years, and he just so happens to play the same position as Wall. Even with that, there is still hope for better days ahead because they have a new face of the franchise in Wall. It puts a positive spin on a youth movement when there is talent involved. Everyone on the Wizards roster is in their 20s, and their only one starter (Arenas or Hinrich at the shooting guard position) will start the season older than 26 years old. JaVale McGee has showed enough promise to be invited to practice with Team USA. Kirk Hinrich is a veteran pro who is young enough to still get the job done at either guard spot. It must have been nothing short of laughable for the Wizards that they were able to get first round pick if they agreed to take on Hinrich.  It is time for Andray Blatche to become a more consistent and reliable player his lacks of focus and past discretions have puzzled fans and scouts alike. Trevor Booker will be the prototypical undersized, try hard backup power forward. The team has a collection of young talent, and appears destined to take a beating in the Southeast this year under the expectation that the players will grow up together.

The only major question is why Gilbert Arenas has not been dealt. While his talent is undeniable, he cannot help a young rebuilding team that is being built around John Wall. He is not the kind of player to mentor a young player, His lack of professionalism that has gotten him in trouble can only hurt the growth and maturation of this team. The only explanation is that he is the most untouchable player in the NBA, and that the new owners do not want to buy him out. If that is the case, then Flip Saunders will earn every last dime he makes this year regardless of how his team performs.

Final Grade: B

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