Phoenix Suns' decision to trade or not trade Steve Nash as much about business as basketball

Suns President Rick Welts wanted to make one thing clear: He'd talk about the nature of the Phoenix sports market and its fans, but not in reference to a possible trade of point guard Steve Nash.

"That's ridiculous," he said.

From a basketball standpoint, that can be argued. Nash is 37. The Suns no longer are a championship contender. Why not trade him while he still has significant value and begin the rebuilding process?

From a business perspective, however, there is no debate. Trading Nash would be disastrous.

"Phoenix can be a tough market," Welts said.

For evidence, the Suns need only look at their immediate neighbor to the east. The Diamondbacks are playing their best baseball in years, fighting for first place in the National League West and fans are responding - by not going out to Chase Field.

The Diamondbacks' average attendance through 33 home games is 22,910. Last year, when Arizona won a measly 65 games, the average home attendance was 25,394.

Part of that is timing. Season-ticket packages were mailed out after the miserable 2010 season - not exactly the best time for a sales pitch - and not surprisingly, renewal rates dropped about 12 percent.

For the same reason, the Cardinals' 53-game sellout streak at University of Phoenix Stadium likely will expire this year because they are coming off a 5-11 season, Kurt Warner isn't coming back and the months-long lockout has turned off the populace.

But there's another factor in play, one that has to influence what the Suns do with Nash: Arizona fans are a divided bunch, their loyalty split between the teams they grew up with and the teams down the street.

According to a Pew Research Center study, no professional market has more residents born out of state than Arizona (72 percent). By comparison, only 27.4 percent of Massachusetts residents were born elsewhere - hence the almost pathological love for the Red Sox, Celtics, etc. - and only 18.8 percent of New York residents were born outside the Big Apple.

That split commitment comes with a price tag: Arizona fans are less likely to support a losing team, or even a mediocre club, because their passion for those teams isn't as deep or unwavering.

"I think Phoenix swings toward successful teams more so than other markets," Welts said.

Complicating matters for the Suns is their history. Although it hasn't won an NBA championship, Phoenix has the fourth-best winning percentage in league history (.560) and has made the playoffs 30 of its 43 seasons.

Might Suns fans be so spoiled they'd stay away from US Airways Center if Phoenix traded Nash, embarked on a massive rebuilding project and won, say, 30-something games for a couple of years?

"I don't know the answer to that and I hope I don't have to find out," said Lon Babby, the team's president of basketball operations.

Welts said that Babby, in his first year with the franchise, was amazed by the negative reaction to the Suns' 40-42 record this past season.

"For a lot of markets that's a really successful team," Welts said. "But the success we've had comes with higher standards in terms of people's expectations. There's more anxiety when the team isn't solidly winning more than half of its games.

"Does it factor in for us? It does. Historically we've never torn down this team to build it back up again. Some people will say that's the reason we've never won a championship."