Post NBA Draft: Early Fantasy Value

Here we sit, basking in the afterglow of the NBA draft.  While most will quickly detail how these young bloods will attempt to change the fortunes of their nare do well teams, I focus on something slightly more relevant. I go back to my roots and ponder their fantasy value come draft time. After seeing Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans and Brandon Jennings become all but elite players during their freshman campaign, this class has expectations that are quite high. Of course sometimes the drafting of a rookie has wide reaching outcome. Most top three picks have an adverse effect on their teammates’ fantasy value. Why? They are expected to dominate the ball as a rookie. It can be said without argument that some rookies come in and help their teammates improve their game. And some…well some end up being Nikoloz Tskitishvili. Without further ado, here is a quick look at this year’s fresh meat.


John Wall: Quick. Jump on YouTube and watch this man’s high school highlight reel. Okay, now pick your chin up off the floor after viewing those jaw dropping moves. Wall is an explosive leaper with a near 40-inch vertical, Jason Biggs in American Pie quick and one of the fastest players end to end that I have ever seen. So what type of fantasy season can we expect from him? Will he play nice with Gilbert-o? You bet your sweet bippy he will. A Tyreke Evans-esque season seems just out of reach for this Kentucky product as the Wiz have slightly more talent than last year’s Kings team; however, a rookie campaign similar to Derrick Rose appears more than likely. Around 19 points, 3-4 rebounds and 5-6 assists should firmly plant Wall as the 2010-2011 Rookie of the year even with the more “NBA-ready” Evan Turner breathing down his neck. Wall joins a team with some talented young players including Andray Blatche who averaged 22.1, 8.3 and 3.6 assists after the all-star break. Yet without a true identity or an established star, Wall will be given the keys to the offense from day one. I don’t expect him to ever check the rear view mirror and look back.  I understand the concerns from those people who can’t see Wall and Arenas co-existing, but think about this. Even if we assume Gilbert doesn’t get bought out or traded, a backcourt with two scoring point guards could be interesting. Without the size to defend an NBA shooting guard, the Wizards could play a more up-tempo style ala Golden State with Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry. Those two players in a fast breaking system would both put up huge numbers, making both of them viable top fifty candidates. Of course if Gilbert doesn’t return, that’s just more opportunity for the ball to be in Wall’s hands.

Paul George: Prior to the draft, the most obvious shortage in Indiana was their deficiency in athleticism. They lacked playmakers not named Granger and started a very unathletic frontcourt with Roy Hibbert and Troy Murphy. Throw in Mike Dunleavy, Earl Watson and the oft-injured T.J Ford and you have a team that plays the game mostly below the rim. Indiana quickly addressed that need through the draft. Opinions will vary on George, whose 17, 7 and 3 were not enough to make the first team all-WAC team. One scout suggested five years from now George would be the best player out of this draft. Others point to his lack of production and struggles against better competition. In reality, the Fresno State standout is an athletic specimen at the small forward position. At 6’9 in shoes and boasting a 6’11 wingspan, George has the skill set of a guard and reminds some of a young Tracy McGrady. More importantly, there is playing time and opportunity on the Pacers, who seem to be going nowhere fast. I chose Brandon Jennings last year for these exact reasons and reaped the benefits. George is a good three-point shooter with no conscience. In his two years at Fresno State, George made 122 threes in 62 games which really lends itself to Indiana who ranked 3rd in the NBA in three-pointers attempted. He’s raw so expect inconsistency, but George has a great opportunity to surprise fans that had never heard of the youngster a few days ago. Indiana fans: get ready for a Danny Granger clone. Expect 13 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists with over a three per game.  Most notably, he is a player that will likely be forgotten come draft time unless he excels during the Summer League, so a last round draft pick should be sufficient for people seeking cheap threes.

DeMarcus Cousins: Some question his maturity. Others his motor. Perhaps this shouldn’t be such a surprise coming from a nineteen year old. Then again, watching talented bigs like Eddy Curry see their career derailed by weight problems, it seems to be a valid concern. Work ethic aside, Cousins is a stud. At 6’11 in shoes and sporting a 7’6 wingspan, Cousins clearly has the size to hold down the low block. However, what strikes me most about this portly post presence is his prototypical centers’ game. The NBA lacks post players who can play with their back to the basket. Even the leagues most dominant big; Dwight Howard, gets by on athleticism rather than skilled post moves. Cousins has terrific footwork and great strength that allows them to score even with contact and surprising good athleticism. Playing time will have to be earned with a crowded frontcourt including Samuel Dalembert, Jason Thompson, Carl Landry and even Jon Brockman. However, Dalembert is nothing more than an expiring contract and the undersized Jon Brockman might struggle for playing time. With Landry likely reprising his role as a spark off the bench, Thompson and Cousins will hopefully start together and will help comprise the Kings’ frontcourt for the next decade. The Kings don’t have a true second scoring threat behind last year’s rookie of the year Tyreke Evans. Cousins should be able to fill that void although it’s tough to imagine him logging more than thirty minutes per game. I trust that the rebuilding Kings want to give their youngsters sufficient playing time, and the Evans and DC combo is the key. The wide bodied Kentucky product managed to average 15 and 10 in only 23 minutes per game, so if the more intense training regime of the NBA can help him get in shape, Cousins is a legitimate ROY candidate. Hopefully he can avoid the path of another DC, Derrick Coleman, and fulfill his potential. Cousins will likely hit the rookie wall with his underdeveloped conditioning, but averages of 15 and 8 seem within reach.Evan Turner

Evan Turner: This is the easiest player to analyze, as Turner will step in from day one and be the second option on this young Philadelphia team. While he may have a similar skill set to Andre Iguodala, both players place different tools in the shed. AI might be more athletic; nevertheless, Turner has far better ball skills and could log some minutes at point. Personally, I’ve always liked the Sixers. With Lou Williams, AI, Thad Young and Marreese Speights they have young talent at every position. As observers point to Elton Brand as the key to their success, I believe they would thrive if they left Brand on the bench. A small line-up with Young and the four-spot and Speights at Center would be scary fast. They would wear down even the quickest of teams. If they complimented those bigs with Iguodala, Jrue Holliday/Lou Williams and Turner, the Sixers could be the most entertaining squad to watch.  With a more open offense Turner could see his numbers soar to Tyreke Evans-esque levels. My projection? A well-rounded stat line with 16 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, a steal and a plethora of turnovers. Makes for a better head-to-head leaguer, but should be a valuable asset regardless. Around pick 70, expect Turner to start getting snatched off the board.

Derrick Favors: There are suspicions that Favors might be on the move as the Nets may have targeted free agent bigmen including Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer or fellow Georgia Tech product Chris Bosh. If Favors stays, he will team with budding superstar Brook Lopez for a dynamic frontcourt for the next several years. While Lopez brings fundamentally sound play in the post, Favors brings the explosive element that will perfectly contrast with the third-year Stanford product. Lopez is a jump shooting big with terrific passing ability out of the post, and Favors is more reminiscent of Amare Stoudemire and his tremendous combination of leaping ability and brute strength. Favors will try to dunk everything and at 6’10 with a 9’2 standing reach and 35 inch vertical, who is going to stop him? New Jersey could land LeBron (which they most likely won't) or another big name free agent, which would slightly taint Favors fantasy value. He is also still somewhat undeveloped and sadly, failed dominate in college. However, the tools are there and Favors game should translate very well into the NBA. A starting role could produce numbers around 12-16 points with 6-8 rebounds. I’d prefer Wall, Turner or Cousins this year. Favors though, could be a stud and it is worth watching how the situation in Jersey works out.

Wesley Johnson: Despite the fact the two never took the Carrier Dome floor together, this Syracuse product gets to join former Orangeman Johnny Flynn in Minnesota. The reason? Johnson was a redshirt due to his transfer from Iowa State. Now, the sharp dressed 23 year old enters the league as one of the oldest rookies. To add to that, he enters with one of the most NBA ready games. Johnson is a terrific defender and solid rebounder. With great athleticism and a nice jump shot, he draws comparisons to a young Shawn Marion. Better yet, Minnesota lacks a real inside/out threat, which Johnson should quickly step in and fill. I imagine the T’Wolves will start the season with a starting line-up that includes Wes, Flynn, Love, Jefferson and Corey Brewer. While all those players have shown to be rosterable fantasy assets with Love and Jefferson being two of the top center eligible players, none are impervious to seeing their production drop. In the world of fantasy, Wes is interesting because it seems that he might be more of an asset on the court in reality. As the explosive wingman for a rebuilding team however, Johnson could have a terrific rookie season. Moreover, he will provide production in some of the oft-overlooked categories including steals, blocks and threes. Johnson averaged 16.5, 8.5 and 2.2 at Syracuse and added 1.8 blocks and 1.7 steals with a 41.5% clip from downtown. Prior to his transfer though, Johnson was not viewed as a top NBA prospect. Johnson is a safe pick for a rookie and should average 10 points, 5 boards, 2 assists with a steal and almost a block per game. If Al Jefferson gets dealt for an expiring contract, Johnson’s value rises greatly while on the contrary, the free agent acquisition of Rudy Gay would make Johnsons value wane. Wesley Johnson is worth taking come next year, but even with his college experience, he isn’t an elite prospect.

Of course not every high pick is worth owning. Look at last season’s crop. The second overall pick (Hasheem Thabeet) ended up in the D-league, the fifth pick (Ricky Rubio) ended up playing hundreds of miles away, and the seventh pick (Jordan Hill) struggled to find playing time on a weak Knicks team and was eventually traded. This year looks to be no different. Whether they are stuck in a difficult situation or simply lack the tools to make them valuable fantasy performers, the following players should be avoided in next years drafts: Epke Udoh, Gordon Hayward, Ed Davis and Larry Sanders. Unfortunately some circumstances will take time to work out. For example, I love Greg Monroe’s game and his passing and rebounding could make him an interesting prospect. Unfortunately, the Detroit roster is congested with overpaid veterans who could steal minutes from my favorite Georgetown alum (sorry Mr. Clinton). With Villanueva and Jason Maxiell as somewhat productive contributors, Monroe could be stuck on the bench and could emerge as the best option and end up starting. As a starter, Monroe would be a tremendous asset as he refined his game and helped himself become more NBA ready by deciding to return to school for his sophomore season. I will continue to update rookie’s fantasy value as the season nears and as free agency shapes these rosters. And for those in keeper leagues wondering what type of value Wall has? I have to consider him a top twenty player, perhaps deserving of a higher draft spot than the oft-compared Derrick Rose.