Sophomore Report V1.02 : How good is Tyreke Evans?
By Brendan McKay
Tyreke EvansI'm going to open the article by directly answering the question the subject poses. Tyreke Evans is pretty damn good. This is obvious. He scores with ease, is one of the strongest guards in the league, and brings it every single night on a Sacramento team going no where fast. If it is so apparent that Tyreke Evans is in fact a good player, why even ask? If you listen for a second I'll tell you. The Sophomore Report is a bi-weekly grading of the performance the best 2nd year players. A big part of the league's future, you might say. So when we analyze how a player is currently performing, we're not doing it in a vacuum. We also want to look at what kind of future this player holds. “How good is a player, and how good can he be?” is a question we aim to answer. This week we are going to take a look at Tyreke Evans, and try to answer that very question.
Ok. Enough babbling about the future for a second. Tyreke Evans is a straight-up baller. 18/5/5 is a stat line 90% of the NBA would kill for. He gets to the line a respectable 4.5 times a game, and coverts just shy of 80% of his trips to the charity stripe. He is absolutely huge at 6-6/220, and uses his size to bully smaller (most of them are) guards around the league. His size allows him to have a near complete offensive game. He can face up and drive, as well as play with his back to the basket. His size also lets him finish through contact, a valuable asset in a league with shaky officiating on a good day. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the kid brings it every single night. He's got basketball running through his veins, a result of getting pulled out of the real world at the age of 15 by his bothers. A man born and raised to professionally hoop.
So what, if any, are my concerns with this man child? What could be the downside of the 2009-2010 Rookie of the Year? Well. There's two things. It is the belief of the Sophomore Report that his game is fundamentally flawed, and it is quite possible he has already hit his ceiling. Let's begin by focusing on the second concern.
An NBA players' Rookie Year is often more about promise than production. Sure, you want your lottery pick to fill the box score up, but there are expected and accepted growing pains along the way. On the other hand, during the second year, it is typically time to put up or shut up. So, how has Tyreke fared from year one to year two? His numbers have dropped across the board. Two less points a game, one half less rebound per, a third of a dime less dished, and a 5% drop from the field. He has even broken the Sophomore Report's cardinal rule, and taken 2 less free throws a game. All these decreases exist despite consistent minutes and the statistical benefit one would expect from playing an entire season without competing for shots with Kevin Martin. Putting the stats aside for a moment, watching the 2010 version of Tyreke Evans is a lot like watching the 2008 version playing under John Calipari in Memphis. What part of his game has developed since high college? No doubt, Tyreke Evans is a very effective NBA player, but I am near positive that a 2008 Tyreke Evans directly out of American Christian Academy would put up very similar numbers to the Tyreke Evans in front of us now.
So what do I mean when I say that his game is fundamentally flawed? Evans's game is predicated on him dominating the ball. This in itself is not necessarily a flaw. Plenty of team's have won NBA Championships with ball hogging guards. The 2005-2006 Miami Heat, the current Los Angeles Lakers, and of course Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls. Playing this style of game, is a bit of an all-in proposition for a franchise. Unlike the San Antonio Championship teams, if Dwayne Wade had an off night in 2005, it was borderline impossible for the Heat to come out ahead of the opposition. So the point is, you can win building your team like this, but your guard better be one of the best players in the league. Period.
Taking this year's drop in numbers, can Evans ever be that good? No, most likely (definitely) not. While he is good enough to dominate the ball in the NBA, and plenty of teams will be willing to pay him to do just that over the course of his career, he is not good enough to take a team to the finals. And this isn't to say that he won't have a very successful career, but leading (and this type of player will have to do the leading) a team to the title with this type of game is tougher than robbing a Dunkin Donunts during a police officer shift change. Plenty of far more talented (Tracy McGrady) have tried and failed. Sorry Tyreke, the ROY is the last trophy I expect you to hold over your head. Moving on.
Well lookie who we've got here? If it isn't Stephen Curry. Shocker. Since we last left you, no, Curry did not decide to start throwing the ball into the San Francisco Bay. He did decide to put up 22.6 and shoot a blistering 44% from down town over the last 6. This stretch highlighted on January 22nd when he destroyed Baron Davis lighting it up for 32 points and 8 assists. Baron? 3-10 for 7 points. God, I miss this Baron : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8w_1ZEk4mds .
Well isn't this awkward. Look I told you, Tyreke Evans is good. I just decided to beat up on him a little. Tyreke has done nothing to drop him down the rankings. He's put up 20 a night over a brutal 6 game stretch featuring the Spurs, Lakers, Celtics and Hornets. Even more impressive, the Kings won 3 of the six beating both Kobe and CP. Go Tyreke. Prove me an idiot.
Go get yours young Wes. As promised in the inaugural Sophomore Report, this man is rising. Matthews has average 17 per over the last two weeks. More importantly he can be held responsible for salvaging the Blazers's playoff hopes in what has been a disastrous season, losing not only Oden (a mind-blowing turn of events, I know) for the season, but likely Brandon Roy as well. Sure, Portland isn't a real contender, but the league does not have a plethora of reserves who can step in for their team's star and keep them in the playoff hunt. My hat is off to you Mr. Matthews.
In the last Report I was guessing. Now I am positive. Larry Bird reads the Sophomore Report. That is awesome. Out with Jim O'Brien, in with Frank The Mogul Vogel (you like?). Larry said he wanted the youngins to play more, and no doubt Collison is a big part of that statement. Since O'Brien was relieved of his duties, Collison has put up 17 and 7 and led the Pacers to 3 straight victories. Collison's most impressive evening playing for Vogel featured 22 and 9 against the pity inspiring Cavs. It's time to see what Collison is made of.
Whoooooooo Weeeeeeeeeeee. Over the last few weeks DeRozan had some absolutely ridiculous performances. 30 on the Heat? Are you kidding me? He followed it up with 25 and 29, so apparently he is not. If it weren't for lackluster nights against the Bucks, Timerwolves, and Pacers, DeRozan would have risen even further. Sure, the man's game is fairly one dimensional, but he's got that dimension down pat.
A bit drastic? No not really. Jennings came back from injury on the 29th, and has done nothing, In fairness, his minutes have been limited. Of course I don't think his play in his return is a true reflection of the type of player he is, and will be, but Collison, Matthews, and Derozan took advantage of Brandon's slow start back, and they were rewarded properly. Brandon Jennings, I make this promise to you. Should you get back to your normal self, I will vault you back up the rankings as quickly as you dropped down them.
While DeRozan, Matthews and Collison made the most of Jennings's injury, Holiday? He crapped the bed. He's kept his assist numbers high, but 10 points a night on 40% from the floor isn't what the Sixers are looking for from their future floor leader. The Sophomore Report has much love for Jrue's game, and this is why more is expected.
Serge probably should have the 7 spot, but guess what? He didn't. You don't put up an 0fer against the Heat and rise in the Sophomore Report. Not going to happen. Aside from that, his play has been good over the last two weeks, pulling down 7 boards and throwing back 2 shots a game over the last 7 games. I'm in love with his stat line on February 2nd, when he had 8 points on 3-5 shooting, 12 boards and 6 filthy rejections. If he can remotely mirror this type of play on a consistent basis, you better believe the Thunder are big time contenders.
DeJuan's increased minutes on the floor have remained, and so has his place on this list. Over the last 7 Blair has ripped down 8 and a half boards a game (2.5 on the offensive end), over 26 minutes a game. On February 4th, Blair decided to show Demarcus Cousins the difference between a boy and a man, bullying Cousins for 10 points, 12 boards (4 offensive), while Cousins could only retaliate with 7 points and 5 turnovers. Eat that Rookie Report.
10.Omri Casspi
Honestly, I considered making this week a 9 person top 10 list, but Casspi has shown some spark over the last few weeks, and deserves a shot out. He's average 10 points and 7 boards over the last six, including a 20 point and 8 rebound evening in an extremely impressive road win over the Lakers, going head to head with Ron Ron of all people. That'll get you a mention in the 10 spot every time.
Once again, thank you for reading. If you want to tell me much you appreciate the Sophomore Report is, or how big of a moron I am, I can be found on Twitter at @bmckay. I bid you farewell.
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