Spurs -Grizzlies Playoff Preview:
Out of the first round match ups in the NBA this year, Memphis v San Antonio should prove to be one of the more intriguing series. Unfortunately for Memphis fans, they have not yet defeated a healthy San Antonio this season and with Rudy Gay missing, they will not face the Spurs at full strength in this series either.
Duncan and ParkerThe home team won each game in the 2-2 season split, however both Memphis wins came with one of either Tim Duncan or Tony Parker out of the line up. The Grizzlies may take some comfort in the knowledge they have pushed the Spurs to OT in San Antonio once this season however, they must at least achieve that again and go one better in the coming days to progress in this year’s playoffs.
To improve their chances, Memphis did tweak their roster mid season, shipping underwhelming 2009 draft picks Hasheem Thabeet and DeMarre Carroll to Houston in exchange for veteran Shane Battier and pint-sized rookie playmaker Ishmael Smith. They also signed forward Leon Powe who will add some playoff experience to the Memphis roster. San Antonio on the other hand posses the personnel, experience and capability to make a deep playoff run. The Spurs biggest question mark is likely to be their health throughout the playoffs.
Things to watch in this series:
Battle of the boards: It may not be the most thrilling aspect of this series however anytime you get two glass-eaters like DeJuan Blair and Zach Randolph opposing each other in a seven game series, its bound to be compelling viewing. Both are top 10 in the league in rebounds per 48 minutes while Randolph is one of the best offensive rebounders in the NBA. Blair will get solid help from both Duncan and Antonio McDyess. For Memphis, Randolph will require assistance from the likes of Marc Gasol, Tony Allen, Shane Battier and Darrell Arthur. For Memphis to have any chance of upsetting the spurs, they must hold their own on the glass.
Battle of the benches: Whilst performance of stars and veterans can just about be taken as a given this time of year, it’s the production of the respective benches that will go a long way to deciding this series. Back up PG George Hill is the spurs 4th leading scorer off the bench contributing 11ppg. His consistent output has been key to the spurs success so far and has propelled him into 6th man of the year discussion. 26 year old rookie Gary Neal (9.7ppg) will also be relied upon to provide a scoring punch as well. As the leagues most accurate team from long range, Neal and Matt Bonner will need to carry over their regular season accuracy into this series and beyond. When a team has a shooter of Steve Novak’s quality deep on the bench, you can be sure they have significant firepower from long range. The Grizzlies meanwhile will need consistent production from its bench to give themselves the best shot.
The Grizzlies X-FactorX-factor: OJ Mayo: With some speculation about the possibility of him moving on after the season, Mayo has plenty of incentive to have a big series. Without 2nd leading scorer Rudy Gay, this series provides Mayo a good opportunity to step up offensively and enhance his value. While Memphis restricts teams to under a hundred points per game, they don’t score much more themselves. Memphis will need guys like Mayo to assume more responsibility.
X-factor: Manu Ginobilli: It is going to be interesting to see how Memphis attempt to guard and contain Ginobilli. The Grizzlies do have some capable defenders to throw at him with the Likes of Tony Allen and Sam Young but guarding man on man is one thing, ensuring effective team rotations is quite another. The Grizzlies team defense will need to be very tight to limit Ginobilli and to make any noise in this series.
With Duncan due to turn 35 this year, this years playoffs will perhaps be his final chance to claim another ring. The Spurs will be refreshed and are favored to make a return to the Western Conference finals. They are battle tested and boast plenty of playoff and big game experience. While a series upset for Memphis isn’t out of the question, the loss of Gay is big and the task of overcoming the #1 seed will prove to be too great this year. We expect San Antonio to close out the series in six games.
Prediction: San Antonio 4-2
Schedule:
Game 1 - Sun April 17, Memphis at San Antonio, 1:00 p.m. ET, TNT
Game 2 - Wed April 20, Memphis at San Antonio, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV
Game 3 - Sat April 23, San Antonio at Memphis, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Game 4 - Mon April 25, San Antonio at Memphis, TBD, TBD
Game 5 * Wed April 27, Memphis at San Antonio, TBD, TBD
Game 6 * Fri April 29, San Antonio at Memphis, TBD, TBD
Game 7 * Sun May 1, Memphis at San Antonio, TBD, TBD
