Why the Memphis Grizzlies Will beat the Oklahoma City Thunder

By Elliot Grossman

With  a 1-0 lead vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Memphis Grizzlies have a chance to be the first eight-seed to make the Western Conference Finals since the NBA has moved to a 7-7-7-7 playoff format. They are playing their best ball at the right time and have matched up well with Oklahoma City during the regular season, going 3-1 against the Thunder during the year. The Grizzlies’ size and frontcourt talent was too much for the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs, as the Grizzlies were able to severely outscored San Antonio in points in the paint. The Thunder have conversely struggled during the season with Grizzlies size being outscored 236-168 in points in the paint in the season series. In fact the Grizzlies inside scoring ability has been just amazing this entire year, leading the league in points in the paint at 50.9 points per game. It looks as if the Grizzlies have too much size and talent on the inside and by winning the first game of the series in Oklahoma City, they have reversed the home-court advantage and now have an excellent opportunity at making history.

Grizzlies Dominant Frontcourt

Marc Gasol elevated his game to the next level in the Spurs series, averaging over 12 boards and 14 points per game. He outplayed future hall of famer Tim Duncan and every other member of the Spurs talented frontcourt. And despite the quick turnaround from the Spurs series to the first game vs. the Thunder, Gasol didn’t let down. In fact, Gasol scored 20 points on 9 of 11 shooting from the field, while also contributing 4 assists, 3 blocks and 13 boards, in his first game of the Western Conference Semifinals. Gasol, a free agent in the off-season, has peaked at the ideal time, with every playoff double double he gets NBA team personnel take closer notice and has increased his chances in receiving an even more lucrative new contract. Kendrick Perkins,  a reputable post defensive stopper is going to have his hands full to hold his own in the post against Gasol, if the Thunder are going to win the series. It seems unlikely, as Gasol is at least 3 inches taller than Perkins and has just as much girth. In game 1 Gasol obviously got the best of Perkins out boarding Perkins 2 to 1, and limiting Perkins to 2 points and 0 blocks. Perkins needs to be able to stay on the floor for the Thunder to have any chance against Gasol to do so he needs to be judicious on his physical play, moving screens, trying to steal the ball away on a guard after a missed shot and getting the foul called on him are the sort of plays that he needs to avoid at all cost as there is little bulk the Thunder can rely on when he is on the bench.   Coach Lionel Hollins was able to keep Gasol fresh for the playoffs by averaging nearly 4 minutes less per game in 2010-2011 season than he did in the 2009-2010 regular season.  In contrast, Gasol is now averaging over 39.5 minutes per game in his first seven playoff games, which is nearly 8 more minutes per game than he averaged during the regular season. Gasol saved his endurance for the right part of the season, while Perkins, still recovering from his knee injury, is playing just under 26.5 minutes per game in this year’s playoffs.  This means that Nazr Mohammed ,Nick Collison, and Serge Ibaka will also have to matchup with Gasol for around 13 minutes of per game, putting  the Thunder in a matchup problem for around a 1/4 of the game. If Ibaka is guarding Gasol, it gives Randolph the upper hand with his matchup. If Gasol is matched-up with either Collison or Mohammed, he has the upper-hand. Containing Marc Gasol is going to be a key for the Thunder, if they want to get to the Western Conference Finals.
Zach Randolph
Even more important to the series outcome is the matchup between the Thunder’s stud defensive stalwart, Serge Ibaka and the Grizzlies most significant player, Zach Randolph.  In the Thunder’s first round matchup with Nuggets, Ibaka was a defensive enforcer against the Nuggets averaging 11 rebounds and nearly 5 blocks per game in the series. Zach Randolph is having a career year shooting and rebounding the ball, and scored with ease against a fundamentally-sound Tim Duncan in the first round of the playoffs. During these playoffs Randolph has averaged over 20 points per game, while shooting over 50% from the field. In the first game versus the Thunder, Zach Randolph offset the 5 block, 11 rebound, and 16 point performance  of Serge Ibaka, by posting 34 points, on 12 of 22 shooting, including 1 for 1 from three-point land and 9 of 9 from the charity stripe. After the game, Kevin Durant called Zach Randolph, “the best power forward in the league.” While I disagree with Durant’s assessment, my guess is if Zach Randolph scores over 20 points per game and shoots over 50% from the field in the Western Conference Semifinals, than the Grizzlies will likely take the series.  Being that Randolph is a hungry veteran of the game and Ibaka is raw 21 year-old, it is hard to imagine Ibaka winning the matchup and forcing Randolph to perform below his season averages.

Grizzlies Perimeter Defense vs. Thunder’s Perimeter Scoring

The Grizzlies have three defensive specialists on the perimeter in Shane Battier, Tony Allen, and Sam Young. They are in large reason why Memphis finished 8th in the NBA opponents field goals made per game and why they led the league in steals per game. Tony Allen finished fourth this year in voting for defensive player of the year, and led the league in steals per 48 minutes. Allen has the ability to guard both Russell Westbrook and James Harden; the Thunder’s second and third best scoring options, respectively.  Sam Young is the Grizzlies version of the Spurs’ role player a DeJuan Blair. While they are completely different players, they are both undersized University of Pittsburgh 2nd-rounders, who made the NBA off of hustle and heart. Young has made a career from himself as a defensive specialist and will give it everything he has got versus the league’s best scorer, Kevin Durant. Also guarding Durant will be Shane Battier, two-time NBA All-Defensive second team selection, and probably the closest thing to a “Kobe-Stopper” in the NBA. In terms of guarding Kevin Durant, Battier and Young as your one and two options, is probably as good as it gets in the NBA.

Both the Grizzlies and the Thunder have a scoring two-guard coming off of the bench, which will make for an interesting matchup. Both James Harden and OJ Mayo were drafted with number three overall draft pick coming out the Pac-10 conference, in back to back years. Both are dynamic scorers, who will need to perform well, to take the pressure their respective teams’ first scoring options.  The Thunder also have a great defender in Thabo Sefolosha, but Sefolosha’s presence will likely be ineffective in this series because Grizzlies lack perimeter scoring. The Grizzlies finished last in entire NBA in the 2010-2011 season in points off of 3-pointers. Also Sefolosha will not likely be matched up too frequently with Grizzlies best perimeter scorers, OJ Mayo and Shane Battier, because Sefolosha is starting and Mayo and Battier are coming off of the bench. Thunder head coach Scott Brooks may need to make some matchup adjustments, and consider starting James Harden instead of Sefolosha, in order to gain a competitive advantage.

While the Thunder have the perimeter-play advantage over the Grizzlies, it is not going to be the key to the series. Kevin Durant was dominant in the first game of the series, posting 33 points on 11-21 shooting while also adding 11 boards, 3 assists, a steal and two blocks, yet the Thunder still lost by double-digits. The Thunder are also going to need to win some other matchups in order to get to the Western Conference Finals.

Russell Westbrook Still Learning the Nuances of the Point Guard Position

Russell Westbrook has all the tools necessary to be a premier all-around point guard in the NBA. The only problem is he just learning how to play the position and is by no means a true floor general yet. His performance in game 4 versus the Nuggets in the opening round of the playoffs was horrendous, and a substantial reason why they lost that game. In that game Westbrook was 12-30 from the field, including 0-7 from three-point land. He also had 3 turnovers and only 5 assists and 1 steal. His egregious shot-selection led to a sideline confrontation between Westbrook and the team’s leader Kevin Durant. With the Thunder down by three with less than a minute in the game, Westbrook decided to take a heavily contested pull-up three off of the dribble, which resulted in an air ball, instead of getting the ball to the Thunder’s best shooter, scoring option, and team leader, Kevin Durant. This selfish play by Westbrook was disgusting.  It was reminiscent when Jason Terry air-balled multiple 3-point attempts in Game 6 of the 2006 Mavericks-Heat NBA Finals. A game, in which Terry’s 7-25 shooting performance, which included going 2-11 from three-point land, nearly single-handedly lead to the Maverick’s Finals demise (an eventual acquisition of Jason Kidd).

While Mike Conley Jr. is obviously an inferior player in terms of all-around skills to Westbrook, his role is more defined as a scoring facilitator and he does not bear the burden of scoring that Westbrook does. Westbrook leads the league in turnovers per game, with an average of nearly 4 per contest. Westbrook takes way to many risky passes and play out of control again because he is the secondary playmaker in the Thunder offense. While Westbrook posts up flashier stats than Conley, Conley has better efficiency stats. In the 2010-2011 season Conley had a better assist to turnover ratio than Westbrook, as well as a better shooting percentage than Westbrook, despite Westbrook increasing his shooting percentages by nearly 3.5% from the 2009-2010 season. This demonstrates Conley makes better decisions and take smarter les contested shots. Conley would also likely have better assist numbers, if his team was not the worst three-point shooting team in the league. It was obvious Russell Westbrook’s and Mike Conley’s play was a reason the Grizzlies won the first game of the series. While they both shot poorly in terms of percentages from the field, Mike Conley posted 7 assists and 0 turnovers, while Westbrook posted 6 assists and 7 turnovers. Thus far in the playoffs, Westbrook is only shooting 39.5% from the field, while averaging nearly 6 assist and 4.5 turnovers per contest, while Mike Conley is averaging more than 6 assists and less than two turnovers per game. Russell Westbrook needs to take a deep breath, relax, and let the game come to him, for the  Thunder are going to win the series. Maybe the Thunder should move Westbrook to the 2-guard for the series, bring Sefolosha off of the bench and start a more under control point guard, in Eric Maynor, to stabilize the point guard position.

The Memphis Grizzlies Can Run with the Thunder
   
A lot of the reasons why many Western Conference teams, such as the Mavericks and Spurs, were thought to matchup poorly with the Thunder was because of the Thunder’s youth and ability to take advantage of the fast-break and transition play. The Thunder are the 3rd youngest team in the league in and ranked 6th in the league in fast break scoring. It seemed to be tough matchup for old, nonathletic veteran teams that play a half-court game, because they do not have the energy to keep up with the athletic youngsters of the Thunder. The Thunder might have been happier if they had gotten the Spurs in the Western Conference Semifinals, but instead they got the young athletic Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are the 2nd youngest team in the league and were 5th in the league in fast-break scoring, during the season. Therefore the Thunder have no advantage in athleticism, youth, and energy over the Grizzlies, which is a huge factor in their success thus far this season.

Conclusion    

It is tough for me, an Oklahoma City Thunder and Scott Presti fan, to go against a team that I originally picked to go to the NBA finals. I correctly predicted in my first article that Thunder would be the Nuggets 4-1. When taking a closer look at the statistics, Memphis seems to have a lot of advantages in categories. Most predominately, Memphis has the advantage in size and post-play, which are essential to winning playoff series. Kobe has never won a championship without either Shaq or Pau Gasol. It seems to me that Durant and the Thunder will not be able to get past the Grizzlies with just Ibaka and Perkins.

Prediction: Grizzlies win the series 4-3.